• Government owes over US$300 million to local suppliers delaying distribution of essential agricultural inputs
• Rising Food Insecurity: With only 600,000 metric tons of maize produced last season 6 million people face food shortages
• Import bill to escalete, putting pressure on the local currency, exacerbating national debt, while local producers struggle against cheaper imports

Harare- The outlook for Zimbabwe's 2024/2025 agricultural season remains precarious, exacerbated by a convergence of governmental inefficiencies and natural disasters that threaten to deepen poverty and economic instability.

The government is ill-prepared, having sought US$3 billion in global aid to support over 3 million hunger-stricken individuals, while simultaneously grappling with substantial debts to local suppliers.

This financial strain will likely deter agricultural production and lead to lower output. Compounding these issues are growing concerns about a potential recurrence of El Niño, which could further disrupt agricultural activities, following the initial La Niña conditions.

In a recent appearance before a Parliamentary Committee to the week to October 28, 2024, Agriculture Secretary Obert Jiri highlighted significant delays in the Pfumvudza program, which is intended to support low-income households.

The government currently owes over US$300 million to suppliers, including fertilizer manufacturers, seed companies, and logistics providers, leading to significant delays in the distribution of essential agricultural inputs.

To date, less than half of the requisite fertilizer has reached farmers ahead of the critical planting season.

“Contractors, including Valley Seeds, FSG, ZFC, Windmill, and Quton, are owed excess of US$300 million for the 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23 seasons. If we don’t pay, they can’t mobilize the necessary inputs,” Jiri stated.

During the 2023/2024 farming season, Zimbabwe produced a mere 600,000 metric tons of maize against a demand of 1.6 million metric tons, leaving approximately 6 million people facing food insecurity.

Projections indicate that this number could double in the upcoming season due to potential El Niño conditions. Last year, 447,415 hectares of maize were planted under the Pfumvudza initiative, marking an 81% increase from the previous season.

 This program produces a substantial amount of maize and grain seed, helping to bridge the poverty gap, particularly in rural areas. However, the existing debt situation is likely to result in lower yields from these farmers, placing an additional burden on the government to intervene and alleviate poverty.

Delays in the provision of seeds and fertilizers will adversely affect thousands of subsistence farmers, leading to diminished crop outputs for the 2024/2025 cropping season.

This shortfall will necessitate increased grain imports, exacerbating the import bill crisis amid low commodity and metal prices.

The combination of diminished agricultural output, rising debt, and low global commodity prices is expected to escalate Zimbabwe's import bill, putting further pressure on the local currency and exacerbating national debt, while local producers struggle against cheaper imports.

Consequently, Zimbabwe may find itself compelled to export more capital to procure maize, even as exports dwindle due to poor global metal prices. An escalating import bill will strain the local currency and exacerbate national debt levels.

The ramifications extend to local producers, who will face intensified competition from inexpensive imported goods, potentially driving formal retailers out of business.

After last summer’s drought, which left tens of millions in Africa in need of food aid—with 6 million alone in Zimbabwe according to the United Nations—the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported on week to October 26 that the prospects of La Niña are fading for the 2024/25 season, raising the specter of another poor harvest for summer grain crops in Southern Africa.

The World Food Programme has projected that 27 million people in the region are food insecure across seven countries. In August, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network estimated that more than 30 million people mostly in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia would be in need of food aid up to March 2025.

Given the potential for El Niño to recur, this number could double in the 2024/2025 season, and Zimbabwe is far from being prepared, having requested US$3 billion in food aid this year, with the coffers for these funds still not available.

Last week, the government received the EU’s second allocation of the US$160 million announced by the EU for Zimbabwe’s 2021-2024 assistance package, with US$28 million meant to support projects such as horticulture, climate-smart agriculture, and renewable energy.

The recurring drought spells call for the government to rapidly increase its irrigation schemes to support maize production and reduce imports.

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