• South Africa's Omnia Holdings expects earnings per share to increase by between 25% and 35% for the six months ended September 2026, following a recovery in its African agricultural operations, including Zimbabwe.
• Zimbabwe's fertiliser imports increased by 81.6% to US$333.47 million between January and August 2026, from US$183.59 million a year earlier, despite substantial installed domestic processing capacity.
• Omnia Fertiliser Zimbabwe was operating at approximately 33% of installed capacity during Parliament's March 2026 inquiry, while national fertiliser processing capacity stood at two million tonnes against annual requirements of 780,000 tonnes.

Harare – South African fertiliser and chemicals group Omnia Holdings expects earnings per share to increase by as much as 35% for the six months ended September 2026, extending a recovery in its African agricultural operations as Zimbabwe's fertiliser import bill climbs above US$333 million in eight months. The company's earnings outlook coincides with renewed scrutiny of Zimbabwe's domestic fertiliser manufacturing industry, where substantial installed processing capacity remains constrained by unreliable upstream chemical production, expensive financing and dependence on imported agricultural nutrients.

In a trading statement released on 3 November, Omnia projected earnings per share of between 407 and 440 South African cents, compared with 326 cents in the corresponding period last year. Headline earnings per share are expected to increase by between 18% and 28%, reaching 378 to 410 cents from 320 cents. The company anticipates releasing its detailed interim results on 9 November, when further information on divisional performance and earnings drivers is expected.

The group's audited results for the financial year ended March 2026 provide evidence of the recovery in its regional agricultural operations. Agriculture Rest of Africa net revenue increased by 34.1% to R2.96 billion from R2.21 billion, supported by stronger sales volumes and improved gross profitability in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

Operating profit increased to R260 million from a R62 million operating loss in the previous financial year, representing a R322 million improvement. Operating margins recovered to 8.8% from negative 2.8%, reflecting improved trading conditions, changes to the operating model and favourable currency movements in Zambia. Omnia does not separately disclose Zimbabwe's financial contribution, limiting the extent to which the regional earnings recovery can be attributed to its local subsidiary.

Zimbabwe's fertiliser import figures provide a broader measure of the market in which the company operates. Equity Axis analysis of merchandise imports under HS categories 3101 to 3105 indicates that Zimbabwe imported fertilisers valued at US$333.47 million between January and August 2026, compared with US$183.59 million during the corresponding period in 2025.

The increase of approximately US$149.88 million represents annual growth of 81.6%, with nitrogenous fertilisers accounting for the largest share of import expenditure.

Imports of nitrogenous fertilisers more than doubled from US$104.96 million to US$214.22 million, accounting for 64.2% of the total import bill and approximately 73% of the annual increase. Mixed and compound fertilisers increased by 54.6% to US$70.32 million, while potassic fertilisers rose by 40% to US$43.38 million. Phosphatic fertilisers increased from approximately US$1.36 million to US$4.44 million.

The customs figures measure import values, incorporating changes in prices, quantities, product composition and procurement timing. They do not independently establish a corresponding increase in fertiliser consumption or identify the proportion of products imported for direct agricultural application against inputs destined for domestic manufacturing.

The import expenditure adds a current economic dimension to findings presented by Parliament's Portfolio Committee on Industry and Commerce in September 2026. The committee reported that Zimbabwe spent approximately US$2.1 billion importing fertilisers between 2018 and 2024, equivalent to an annual average of around US$300 million.

The US$333.47 million recorded during the first eight months of 2026 already exceeds that historical annual average. The figures cover different reporting periods and may use different product definitions, although both demonstrate the considerable foreign exchange requirements of Zimbabwe's fertiliser supply chain.

Parliament's investigation established installed industry capacity of approximately two million tonnes annually against reported national fertiliser requirements of about 780,000 tonnes, comprising roughly 400,000 tonnes of basal fertiliser and 380,000 tonnes of top dressing.

The manufacturing structure explains part of the industry's continued dependence on foreign suppliers. Approximately 1.6 million tonnes of installed capacity is associated with blending operations, while around 400,000 tonnes relates to granulation and other processing facilities. Domestic blending relies heavily on imported nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium inputs, limiting the foreign exchange savings generated by producing finished fertiliser locally.

The committee identified prolonged operational difficulties at the country's principal upstream producers, including Sable Chemicals, Dorowa Minerals and Zimbabwe Phosphate Industries.

Sable Chemicals, Zimbabwe's established ammonium nitrate manufacturer, had remained out of production since 2022 at the time of Parliament's inquiry. The facility has an installed design capacity of approximately 240,000 tonnes annually, against reported domestic ammonium nitrate requirements exceeding 330,000 tonnes.

Parliament heard that an approximately US$11 million Afreximbank financing facility had supported rehabilitation work, with technical refurbishment reported to be about 80% complete. Management indicated that additional working capital of roughly US$3 million would support the resumption of production, with potential annual output of up to 140,000 tonnes under the proposed restart arrangements.

These figures describe the facility's rehabilitation position during the inquiry and its proposed production potential. They do not confirm that manufacturing has subsequently resumed or that the targeted output has been achieved.

The disruption of domestic ammonium nitrate production has reinforced dependence on imported nitrogenous fertilisers and chemical inputs. However, the customs classification includes a range of nitrogenous products, and the recorded US$214.22 million import value cannot be attributed entirely to Sable Chemicals' shutdown.

Production difficulties also extend into the phosphate value chain. Dorowa Minerals, which supplies phosphate concentrate used in basal fertiliser production, has an installed annual capacity of approximately 150,000 tonnes. Parliamentary findings indicated that utilisation averaged around 20% between 2016 and 2024 before operations were suspended in April 2025.

The mine's prolonged difficulties affected Zimbabwe Phosphate Industries, which relies on phosphate inputs for chemical processing. Parliament reported that ZimPhos utilisation had fallen to approximately 5%, while its sulphuric acid production facilities had been out of operation for several years.

The committee also identified a 120,000-tonne granulation facility purchased in 2021 for approximately US$1.7 million that remained uncommissioned because of financing constraints. Management indicated that an additional US$1.3 million would be required to complete commissioning.

These production disruptions have constrained the availability of domestic chemical inputs to downstream fertiliser manufacturers, including Omnia, Windmill, NuFert and other blending companies.

Omnia Fertiliser Zimbabwe was operating at approximately 33% of its estimated 80,000 to 90,000 tonnes of installed annual capacity during Parliament's March 2026 assessment. Country manager Munyaradzi Maisva identified reliance on imported raw materials among the principal obstacles affecting production.

Other processors reported similarly low utilisation. Windmill's reported production of approximately 2,800 tonnes against installed capacity of 32,000 tonnes represented utilisation of about 9%, while NuFert reported approximately 6,500 tonnes against 40,000 tonnes of capacity, equivalent to around 16%.

The figures illustrate the extent of underutilisation recorded during the parliamentary investigation. Updated operating disclosures would be required to establish the industry's production position at the beginning of November.

Industry participants also identified commercial borrowing costs of approximately 15% to 18% against reported operating margins of 12% to 15%, alongside elevated transport costs following the deterioration of rail infrastructure.

The financing constraints are particularly significant for companies dependent on imported chemical inputs. Manufacturers must secure foreign currency and finance raw materials ahead of production, with additional expenditure incurred through freight, customs clearance, processing and distribution before receiving payment from customers.

Parliament also identified government payment delays and outstanding receivables as constraints on industry liquidity. Zimbabwe Fertiliser Company was reportedly owed approximately US$1.2 million for supplies under agricultural programmes, while ZimPhos reported receivables of about US$4.6 million, including approximately US$2.3 million owed by the City of Harare.

The government's industrial rehabilitation programme seeks to address some of these weaknesses. In April 2026, Mutapa Investment Fund chief executive John Mangudya disclosed that approximately US$153.1 million had been committed to reviving fertiliser value chain companies within the fund's portfolio.

The programme covers rehabilitation of Dorowa Minerals, Sable Chemicals and ZimPhos, alongside working capital and other interventions supporting domestic fertiliser production. Reported allocations and disbursements have varied between public updates, making project-level implementation and verified expenditure important measures of progress.

The 2026 National Budget also prioritised the fertiliser value chain, providing for rehabilitation of phosphate concentrate production at Dorowa and the refurbishment of Sable Chemicals. Treasury outlined plans to improve rail tank-wagon infrastructure and expand domestic granulation capacity, targeting 470,000 tonnes of basal fertiliser production by the end of 2026.

The programmes represent a substantial industrial commitment, although the available evidence does not establish that all targeted rehabilitation projects have been completed or that the planned production volumes have materialised.

The distinction between upstream chemical production and downstream blending remains central to Zimbabwe's import substitution strategy. Expanded local blending can increase manufacturing activity and strengthen distribution, but substantial foreign exchange expenditure persists where the underlying nutrients are purchased internationally.

Restoring competitive domestic ammonium nitrate and phosphate production could reduce dependence on certain imported chemical inputs. The financial benefits would depend on actual production costs, feedstock availability, energy supply, financing expenses and the ability of local manufacturers to compete with international suppliers.

Omnia's future ownership adds another dimension to the industry's investment outlook. In September 2026, Solar SA Investments, ultimately owned by India's Solar Industries, announced a proposed R21.8 billion acquisition of Omnia at R134.50 per share.

The proposed transaction involves a scheme of arrangement that would result in Omnia's delisting from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and A2X upon successful implementation. A shareholder meeting was scheduled for 5 November, with completion subject to the relevant approvals and transaction conditions. No specific capital investment commitment for Omnia's Zimbabwean operations has been disclosed in the transaction announcements examined.

The agricultural outlook adds further pressure to the supply chain. FEWS NET's September 2026 assessment forecast an erratic start to Zimbabwe's 2026/27 rainy season, with El Niño conditions increasing the likelihood of below-average rainfall and higher temperatures. The forecast raises risks around planting decisions, agricultural financing and the economic returns on purchased fertiliser.

Omnia's regional earnings recovery demonstrates improved commercial performance across its African agricultural operations. Zimbabwe's customs figures and parliamentary findings establish a substantial market for fertiliser suppliers alongside significant constraints affecting domestic chemical production.

The country's industrial rehabilitation programme now carries measurable production and financing commitments. Progress at Sable Chemicals, Dorowa Minerals and ZimPhos, alongside improved utilisation among downstream processors, will provide evidence of the industry's ability to increase domestic supply and reduce dependence on imported agricultural nutrients.

Omnia's interim results on 9 November should provide a clearer picture of the group's latest financial performance, while Zimbabwe's fertiliser import bill and operating data will remain central to evaluating the economic results of the country's manufacturing rehabilitation programme.

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