- Reducing PM2.5 emissions: The World Bank aims to reduce fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions, which are responsible for 5.7 million annual deaths globally,
- With % of these deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries
- Targeted policy actions: The World Bank advocates for policy changes including in industry, transport, agriculture, urban development, and residential energy use
- Transformative shifts: Achieving a 50% reduction in exposure requires transformative shifts, including sustained EV growth, coal phase-downs, and addressing rural reliance on dirty fuels
Harare- The World Bank’s recent report, Accelerating Access to Clean Air on a Liveable Planet, released on March 27, 2025, presents an ambitious yet attainable goal: halving the number of people exposed to dangerously high levels of air pollution by 2040 through targeted policy actions.
With outdoor air pollution claiming approximately 5.7 million lives annually according to the World Bank statistics, 95% of these deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and costing nearly 5% of global GDP due to health impacts, lost productivity, and reduced life expectancy, the urgency of this issue cannot be overstated.
The report emphasises that fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key pollutant from human activities such as industry, transport, agriculture, and residential energy use, can be significantly reduced through strategic interventions.
But how feasible is this vision when assessed against the air pollution status of top polluting countries, their coal production, imports, electric vehicle (EV) adoption, and reliance on dirty fuels?
This article analyses the World Bank’s perspective by examining the latest data from major polluters, China, India, the United States, and Europe and evaluates whether their current policies align with this transformative goal.
Air Pollution in Top Polluting Countries: The Current Landscape
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 99% of the global population breathes air exceeding its guideline limits, with PM2.5 being the most harmful pollutant due to its ability to penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream.
According to the 2024 World Air Quality Report by IQAir, Chad tops the list of the most polluted countries with an annual average PM2.5 concentration of 89.7 µg/m³ (means there are 89.7 micrograms of pollution in every cubic metre of air), followed by Bangladesh (79.9 µg/m³), Pakistan (70.9 µg/m³), and India (54.4 µg/m³).
China, while still a major polluter, has seen its PM2.5 levels drop to 32.5 µg/m³ in 2024, reflecting significant progress.
In contrast, the United States and Europe fare better, with averages of 9.6 µg/m³ and 12.7 µg/m³ (across the EU), respectively, though certain regions exceed WHO guidelines of 5 µg/m³.
In LMICs, particularly in Asia and Africa, air pollution is driven by rapid industrialisation, coal reliance, and widespread use of solid fuels like wood and charcoal for cooking and heating.
High-income countries like the USA and Europe, while historically reliant on fossil fuels, have shifted toward cleaner energy, though challenges remain.
The World Bank’s claim that 80% of the 7.3 billion people exposed to unsafe PM2.5 levels live in LMICs, 1.2 billion in South Asia alone reflecting the uneven burden and the need for tailored solutions.
Policy Actions and Progress: Coal, Imports, EVs, and Dirty Fuels
The World Bank advocates for policy changes across key sectors: industry, transport, agriculture, urban development, and residential energy use to reduce PM2.5 exposure. Let’s examine how top polluting regions are addressing these, focusing on coal production, imports, electric vehicles, and dirty fuels.
China
As the world’s largest coal producer (over 4 billion tons annually) and consumer, China has made strides since declaring a “war on pollution” in 2014. By 2024, PM2.5 levels have fallen 43% from 2013 levels, driven by stringent industrial emission standards, coal-to-gas transitions, and a massive push for EVs, China accounted for 60% of global EV sales in 2023.
However, coal still powers 60% of its electricity, and CO2 emissions continue to rise, suggesting a prioritisation of local air quality over global climate goals. The World Bank’s Hebei program, reducing PM2.5 by nearly 40% between 2013 and 2017, exemplifies successful policy integration, yet scaling this nationwide remains a challenge.
India and South Asia
India, producing 750 million tons of coal annually and importing 240 million tons, relies heavily on coal for 70% of its power. PM2.5 levels in cities like Delhi often exceed 100 µg/m³, fuelled by industrial emissions, crop burning, and household biomass use.
Policies like the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) aimed for a 20-30% reduction in PM2.5 by 2024 (from 2017 levels), but progress was slow. EV adoption is rising targeting 30% of vehicle sales by 2030 but dirty fuels dominate rural households, with 40% still using biomass.
The World Bank’s call for agricultural reform (like reducing fertilizer use and crop residue burning) aligns with India’s needs, yet implementation lags due to economic and governance constraints.
United States
The U.S. produces 500 million tons of coal annually but has reduced its share in electricity generation to 20%, due to natural gas and renewables. PM2.5 levels have dropped 40% since 2000 under the Clean Air Act, with EVs comprising 7% of vehicle sales in 2023.
However, industrial and transport emissions persist, especially in urban areas. The World Bank’s emphasis on private investment could bolster U.S. efforts, but political resistance to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, estimated at $20 billion annually complicates deeper cuts.
Europe
The EU has slashed coal production (down to 300 million tons annually) and imports, with renewables now at 40% of energy production. PM2.5 levels are among the lowest globally, though Eastern Europe (Poland) remains coal-dependent.
EVs made up 14% of car sales in 2023, supported by aggressive policies like the 2035 ban on internal combustion engines. The World Bank’s focus on cross-border airshed cooperation is critical here, as pollution from Asia and dust from North Africa affect air quality.
Europe’s integrated approach of balancing energy independence and emissions reduction mirrors the Bank’s multi-goal strategy.
Feasibility of Halving Exposure by 2040
The World Bank projects that existing and planned policies will reduce global PM2.5 emissions by 6% by 2040, yet population and economic growth could increase exposure by 15% without bolder action.
Achieving a 50% reduction in exposure requires transformative shifts. In China, sustained EV growth and coal phase-downs could cut exposure significantly, but rural reliance on dirty fuels must be addressed.
India and South Asia face steeper hurdles; coal dependence and weak enforcement could offset gains unless governance and data improve, as the Bank suggests. The U.S. and Europe, already on cleaner paths, can lead through technology transfer and financing, but their historical emissions burden calls for greater support to LMICs.
The economic case is compelling: $2.4 trillion in benefits by 2040 from integrated policies far outweighs costs. Yet, the disparity in air quality monitoring- 1 monitor per 65 million people in low-income countries versus 370,000 in high-income ones hampers progress.
Desert dust, a natural PM2.5 source in Africa and the Middle East, adds complexity, requiring regional cooperation beyond human activity controls.
Therefore, Axel van Trotsenburg’s assertion that “improving air quality is an urgent health and economic imperative” rings true, backed by the reality of 5.7 million annual deaths and a 5% GDP loss.
The World Bank’s three-pronged approach: strengthening governance, enhancing data, and leveraging financing offers a practical roadmap. Top polluters show mixed progress: China’s air quality gains inspire, while India’s challenges caution.
The U.S. and Europe demonstrate that policy works, but global equity demands that they do more for LMICs. Halving exposure by 2040 is within reach if policies align with local realities and global cooperation intensifies.
Cleaner air is not just a health win, it’s an economic and moral necessity for a liveable planet.
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