• Production Goals vs. Needs: Targets 3.3 million metric tonnes of cereal, while requiring 2.2 million tonnes to meet population and livestock needs
• Financial Constraints: The government owes over US$300 million to agricultural suppliers, delaying critical input distribution for small-scale farmers
• Irrigation and Weather Risks: Delayed rainfall and insufficient irrigation infrastructure threaten crop yields, raising concerns about food security

Harare- The 2024/2025 agricultural season has commenced, albeit at a measured pace in line with expectations. Zimbabwe is targeting a production goal of 3.3 million metric tonnes for cereals and 819,500 metric tonnes for pulses.

To meet the nutritional requirements of its 16.67 million-strong population and livestock, Zimbabwe necessitates 2.2 million tonnes of cereal. Human consumption demands 1.8 million metric tonnes (including maize, wheat, sorghum, and millet), while livestock feed requires 400,000 metric tonnes (comprising maize, soybeans, wheat bran, and sunflower meal).

Historically, Zimbabwe's peak maize yield occurred in 2022 with 2.28 million tonnes, followed by 2.1 million tonnes in 2017. Conversely, the lowest yields were recorded in 2016 (512 metric tonnes) and 2008 (525 metric tonnes), resulting in deficits of 1.4 million tonnes and 975 metric tonnes, respectively, necessitating substantial imports. The 2008 season was particularly challenging, characterized by acute drought, hyperinflation, and political instability.

Maize remains the cornerstone of Zimbabwe's agricultural output, accounting for 50-60% of total cereal production and 70-80% of cereal consumption. As the staple crop, maize is the primary carbohydrate source for human diets and a crucial component of livestock feed.

For the upcoming 2024/2025 season, the strategic objective is to elevate cereal production to over 3.2 million metric tonnes. The area devoted to cereal cultivation is projected to expand from approximately 2.3 million hectares in the 2023/2024 season to 2.5 million hectares. Maize production is anticipated to increase from 635,000 metric tonnes to 2.7 million metric tonnes.

Average maize yields are expected to rise from 0.8 metric tonnes per hectare in 2023/2024 to 1.5 metric tonnes per hectare. Additionally, the yield for traditional grains is forecasted to improve from an average of 180 kg per hectare to 800 kg per hectare.

The largest seed producer in Zimbabwe is Seed Co, offering a diverse range of maize seeds across early, medium, and late maturity categories. Its flagship variety, SC 727, boasts a yield potential of up to 19 tonnes under optimal rainfall conditions and is classified as a late-maturity seed suitable for high rainfall. Seed Co has enhanced its early maturity offerings with SC 513, followed by the more advanced SC 555. For medium maturity, options include SC 619 and other varieties.

These cereal production projections are supported by anticipated La Niña weather conditions, which typically bring increased rainfall. Initially, rainfall was expected to commence in October; however, the Meteorological Department has postponed this forecast to November. As of November 15, no significant rainfall has been recorded across the country, raising concerns about the potential onset of El Niño conditions. Independent weather forecasts suggest that Zimbabwe may experience increased precipitation from January to March, coinciding with the harvesting period for maize sown in October.

Are we prepared?

From a financial standpoint, the government is significantly unprepared. There is an urgent need for capital to support small-scale farmers, procure fertilizers and seeds, and address outstanding debts. It is also still in search of US$3 billion to support its starving population. Small-scale farmers contribute approximately 70% of Zimbabwe's national maize output. As of November 2024, the government owed over US$300 million to suppliers involved in its agricultural programs, resulting in delays in the distribution of critical inputs for the upcoming farming season.

By December of the previous year, the government had incurred debts totaling US$61.778 million to various suppliers, including Arda, Easiseeds, Farmbiz Genetics, Intaba Trading, Klein Karoo Seed Marketing, Prime Seeds/Seed Co Vegetables, Quton, Reapers, Seed Co, Tocek, and Zimbabwe Technology Solutions.

During a parliamentary session on October 28, 2024, Agriculture Secretary Obert Jiri informed the committee that programs like Pfumvudza, designed to enhance resilience for low-income families—who constitute a significant portion of small-scale farmers—are facing delays in input supply due to the government’s debts to fertilizer and seed companies, as well as transporters. Currently, less than half of the required fertilizers have been dispatched to farmers.

The government procures maize seeds from contractors such as Valley Seeds, FSG, ZFC, Windmill, and Quton. The accumulated debt to these suppliers exceeds US$300 million for the 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023 seasons, and without payment, these suppliers cannot release the necessary inputs.

To facilitate timely delivery of inputs to farmers before the onset of the rainy season—when distribution challenges escalate—the government must contract truckers. However, the government also owes these transporters for previous aid distribution.

Supportive measures in place

In terms of supportive measures, the government has outlined an ambitious US$1.64 billion cropping plan aimed at recovery from the severe drought. The government plans to contribute 37% of this funding, while the private sector is expected to account for 60% through contract schemes, with self-financed farmers contributing the remaining 3%.

Private sector involvement will be further enhanced in irrigation development, with the goal of increasing the area under summer irrigation from 75,000 hectares in the 2023/2024 season to 90,000 hectares in the 2024/2025 season. Key private sector contractors include Staywell, Innscor division PHI, Delta, and Northern Farming, which together form the Food Crop Contractors Association. This group aims to fund 97,000 hectares this year, comprising 45,000 hectares for maize, 40,000 hectares for soybeans, and 12,000 hectares for sorghum.

Government policy mandates that agro-processors source 40% of their raw material requirements from financing farmers. In the previous season, the private sector contributed to a total cereal production of 449,300 metric tonnes, with approximately 30% of maize sourced from private entities.

The government anticipates that the Agricultural and Rural Development Authority (ARDA) will produce 500,000 metric tonnes of summer cereals from a 100,000-hectare irrigable area. ARDA is expected to utilize its estates, which encompass 20,179 hectares of arable land across 23 estates, with 2,500 hectares currently under irrigation.

Irrigation schemes

In terms of irrigation infrastructure, Zimbabwe has accelerated its rollout; however, progress is decelerating due to funding constraints. The cumulative area under irrigation was projected to reach 496,000 hectares by 2025. Unfortunately, ongoing funding challenges have hindered the realization of this goal. Since 2020, only 48,000 hectares have been developed against a target of 110,000 hectares, reflecting a 43.6% achievement rate.

Fertiliser Procurement

Regarding fertilizer preparedness, the government has again permitted the free importation of fertilizer for select companies, which must sell at lower prices compared to those importing fertilizer and paying duty. In 2023, Zimbabwe's fertilizer imports amounted to US$388.17 million, as reported by the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

In 2022, Zimbabwe imported $200 million worth of nitrogenous fertilizers, positioning the country as the 54th largest importer of these fertilizers globally. During the same year, nitrogenous fertilizers ranked as the fifth most imported product in Zimbabwe. The primary sources for these imports included South Africa ($66.3 million), Mauritius ($62.5 million), the United Arab Emirates ($26.1 million), Russia ($16.1 million), and Mozambique ($11.8 million). The fastest-growing import markets for nitrogenous fertilizers in Zimbabwe between 2021 and 2022 were Mauritius ($29.3 million), Russia ($12.8 million), and Ukraine ($10 million).

In the tobacco sector, farmers have proactively increased their planting efforts, purchasing 30% more seed than in the previous season. To date, 22,333 hectares of tobacco seedlings have been transplanted, nearly matching the area planted during the same period last year. A total of 117,885 growers have registered for tobacco production this season, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the previous year.

However, the financing landscape remains challenging for many farmers. Limited access to bank credit means that a significant portion of the farming community relies on financing from contractors. Approximately 90% of all tobacco production in Zimbabwe is conducted on credit provided by foreign contractors, with auction sales representing a small remaining fraction. This reliance on contractor financing results in a substantial portion of earnings from tobacco sales being allocated to repaying contractors, significantly diminishing the financial benefits for the growers themselves.

Therefore, Zimbabwe's preparedness for the 2024-2025 farming season is severely compromised due to substantial outstanding debts. As a result, the country will likely continue to rely on maize imports to address food insecurity affecting approximately 6 million people, perpetuating into the 2025-2026 season.

The delayed onset of rains exacerbates this vulnerability, particularly for small-scale farmers, who account for 70% of maize production. The lack of irrigation systems among these farmers renders them heavily dependent on rainfall, further jeopardizing crop yields and national food security. This scenario reflects the urgent need for addressing the government's financial constraints, enhancing irrigation infrastructure, and supporting small-scale farmers to ensure a Abuoyant agricultural sector.

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