• Zimbabwe aims to produce 40 tonnes of gold in 2025, driven by gold prices surpassing $3,000 per ounce amid global geopolitical tensions
• Three major players are expected to contribute significantly to the national total, with a combined output of 9 tonnes
• Zimbabwe's gold mining sector faces challenges like power cuts and forex losses, but its shallower deposits and lower labour expenses offer a cost edge

Average global gold spot prices

Source: World Gold Council, Fidelity Printers and Refiners

Harare- Zimbabwe is gearing up for an ambitious goal of producing 40 tonnes of gold in 2025, a target made tantalisingly achievable by gold prices soaring past $3,000 per ounce amid global geopolitical tensions and a rush to safe-haven assets.

At the forefront of this effort are three major players: Kuvimba Mining House, which is targeting 3,600 kilograms (kg); Padenga Holdings, aiming for up to 2800 kg ounces, and Caledonia Mining Corporation, projecting up to 2170 kg.

These companies, through their flagship operations Freda Rebecca, Eureka, and Blanket Mine are poised to drive a significant portion of the national total. After investing US$86 million into its mines over the past four years, Padenga Holdings is setting itself a target of 100,000 ounces of gold per year.

The company’s mining arm, Dallaglio, has spent US$46 million on Guruve’s Eureka Mine, which it revived in 2021 after it had been dormant for over two decades, while also channeling US$26 million into developing an underground mine at Chegutu’s Pickstone and US$14 million on plant upgrades there.

In the first two months of 2025, Zimbabwe’s gold production has shown encouraging signs, with Fidelity Gold Refineries reporting robust deliveries building on late 2024’s record highs. With these industry leaders laying a solid foundation, the rest of the sector, particularly the vast network of small-scale and artisanal miners, will step up to close the gap and propel Zimbabwe to its 40-tonne milestone, seizing the unprecedented opportunity presented by today’s gold market.

The combined output of Kuvimba, Padenga, and Caledonia forms a critical piece of Zimbabwe’s 40-tonne puzzle. Kuvimba Mining House is set to contribute 3,600 kg (3.6 tonnes), with its flagship Freda Rebecca Gold Mine expected to produce 2,548 kg bolstered by a $38 million investment in upgrades and exploration while its Shamva and Jena Mines add the remaining 1,052 kg.

Padenga Holdings, through its Dallaglio operations, targets 100,000 ounces, equivalent to approximately 2800 kg a significant step up from its 2024 performance of 2,025 kg over nine months and reflecting the impact of its US$86 million investment across Eureka and Pickstone. Caledonia’s Blanket Mine, projecting 77,500 ounces or about 2100 kg despite Bilboes being on maintenance.

Together, these three producers are slated to deliver 9. tonnes accounting for roughly 22.8% of the 40-tonne target, leaving 30.880 tonnes to be supplied by other players, primarily the small-scale mining sector that has historically dominated Zimbabwe’s gold output.

Small-scale and artisanal miners, numbering around 1.5 million, have long been the backbone of the sector, producing over half the national total such as 18.4 tonnes of the 30 tonnes in 2023. To meet 2025’s goal, they’ll need to supply at least 22–25 tonnes, complemented by other large operators like RioZim. reality.

Zim gold production vs South Africa in tonnes

Source: World Gold Council, Fidelity Printers and Refiners

South Africa, historically a gold mining titan, produced 110 tonnes in 2023, ranking it 11th globally, though its output has declined from 189 tonnes in 2010 due to aging mines, high costs, and infrastructure woes.

Major South African mines include South Deep (Gold Fields), producing 321,500 ounces (9,989 kg or 9.99 tonnes) in 2023, and Kloof (Sibanye-Stillwater) with 262,190 ounces (8,149 kg or 8.15 tonnes).

Mponeng, the world’s deepest mine at 4 km, operated by Harmony Gold, yielded around 7,000 kg in recent years, while Driefontein (Sibanye-Stillwater) produced 250,000 ounces (7,776 kg or 7.78 tonnes) in 2020.

Collectively, South Africa’s top mines far outstrip Zimbabwe’s trio, with just four operations exceeding 33 tonnes annually. Projections for 2025 are less optimistic, with output expected to hover around 100–110 tonnes due to depleting reserves and operational constraints, though high gold prices could incentivise marginal increases.

Operationally, South African mines contend with extreme depths (up to 4 km), high energy costs tied to a coal-reliant grid, and labour disputes, driving costs above $1,200 per ounce in some cases.

Zimbabwe’s challenges, 18-hour power cuts and forex losses raise costs too, but its shallower deposits and lower labour expenses offer a cost edge, potentially below $1,000 per ounce at Freda Rebecca.

South Africa’s regulatory environment, while more stable than Zimbabwe’s, has lagged in modernisation, deterring exploration (below 1% of global spend versus 5% two decades ago).

In revenue terms, Zimbabwe’s 9.12 tonnes at $3,000 per ounce could generate $879 million, while South Africa’s 110 tonnes might yield $10.6 billion over 12 times more. Yet, Zimbabwe’s growth trajectory (from 31.5 tonnes in 2021) outpaces South Africa’s stagnation.

Zimbabwe’s trio, though smaller, are pivotal to a national goal within reach, while South Africa’s giants prop up a fading legacy.

However, the government’s recent policy tweak, reducing miners forex retentions to just 70% affect investments in solar power to mitigate chronic outages.

Easing the 30% export surrender requirement, which forces miners to swap valuable dollars for an overvalued ZiG currency, would further boost output by preserving liquidity for reinvestment.

With gold at $3,000+ per ounce, the stakes and rewards have never been higher, and every miner, from the smallest panner to the largest firm, must rally to turn Zimbabwe’s golden vision into reality.

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