- In the United States, the focus will be on the release of October's Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail sales figures, and earnings reports from major companies such as Home Depot, Cisco, TJX, Walmart, and Applied Materials
- China's industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, lending, and investment figures for October will be closely watched as they provide insights into the country's economic performance and growth trajectory
- In Europe, attention will be on Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, the Euro Area's second estimates of Q3 GDP, and updates on inflation for the Euro Area, France, and Italy
- Other notable events include Japan's GDP contraction in Q3 and trade balance, India's inflation rate, and Australia's forward-looking indicators such as consumer confidence and labor data
Harare- In the upcoming week, the world eagerly anticipates the release of crucial economic data and key events from major economies, including the United States, China, Eurozone, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The outcomes of these data releases and events have far-reaching implications, particularly on commodity prices, which have generally been on a downward trajectory, with the exception of gold, and can significantly impact global economic growth.
In the United States, all eyes are on the forthcoming release of inflation data, which holds considerable importance. The focus will be on the highly anticipated inflation rate data, which will provide critical insights into the state of the economy. Alongside this, attention will also be directed towards retail sales figures and speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve, as they provide further indications of the country's economic health.
In addition to inflation and retail sales, other significant indicators will be closely monitored in the US. These include producer prices, industrial production, export and import prices, as well as building permits and housing starts. These data points offer valuable insights into various sectors of the economy and can have a considerable impact on market sentiment.
The earnings season will continue, with reports expected from major companies such as Home Depot, Cisco, TJX, Walmart, and Applied Materials. The performance of these companies can provide valuable insights into the overall health of the US economy and its various sectors.
Internationally, investors will also pay close attention to economic developments in other major economies. In the United Kingdom, focus will be on the inflation rate, retail sales, and the unemployment rate, which can offer insights into the country's economic performance and consumer sentiment.
China, another key player in the global economy, will be in the limelight as updates on new yuan loans, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment are released. These indicators will provide crucial information about the state of China's economy and its growth trajectory.
The week will also unveil Q3 GDP growth rates for Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, and Malaysia. Finally, Germany will release ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, India inflation rate data, and Australia will provide updates on both Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence.
In the United States, the upcoming release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds significant importance. It is anticipated that consumer prices will rise by 0.1% compared to September, which would be the lowest reading in four months. This decrease is primarily attributed to a decline in gasoline prices. However, when excluding fuel and energy, the core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3% in October, matching September's figure. This would result in the annual rate remaining steady at 4.1%.
The market will closely monitor retail sales, which are projected to decline by 0.1%. If this prediction holds true, it would mark the first decrease in seven months. Other essential indicators to follow include producer prices, industrial production, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the NAHB Housing Market Index, as well as building permits and housing starts. These indicators provide valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector, housing market, and overall economic activity.
In the United Kingdom, the economic calendar for the upcoming week features several important reports. One of the key indicators is the inflation rate, which is expected to decrease to a two-year low of 4.8% from the previous reading of 6.7% in September. This decline in the annual inflation rate suggests a potential easing of price pressures in the UK economy. Additionally, retail sales are projected to rebound, indicating an improvement in consumer spending. On the other hand, the unemployment rate is expected to continue its upward trend during the third quarter.
Germany and Euro Zone
Moving to Europe, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany is anticipated to rise to an eight-month high, reflecting an optimistic outlook among financial experts regarding the German economy. However, industrial output in the Euro Area is likely to have declined in September, highlighting potential challenges in the manufacturing sector. The Euro Area will also release second estimates of its third-quarter GDP, providing a clearer picture of economic growth in the region. Flash estimates from the Netherlands, Poland, and Russia will also shed light on their respective economic performances.
Updates on inflation for the Euro Area, France, and Italy will be released, offering insights into price trends within these economies. Other notable data includes the Euro Area's foreign trade figures, Germany's wholesale prices, France's jobless data, and Switzerland's industrial output. These indicators provide valuable information about the overall economic health and performance of the respective countries and regions.
China and Asia
In Asia, all eyes will be on China’s industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, lending, and investment figures for October. Previous data for the period showed that Asia’s largest economy failed to maintain its economic recovery from the third quarter, raising more concerns that Beijing’s 5% GDP growth target for this year may be unattainable.
Japan’s GDP is set to show a fresh contraction in the third quarter, while October’s trade balance will unveil the impact of the yen’s continued depreciation. In India, the inflation rate for October is expected to remain below the RBI’s upper threshold of 6% for a second month, likely pressuring the rupee, which hovers near a record low. Elsewhere, South Korea will update its unemployment data and the Philippines will decide on its monetary policy.
In Australia, investors await a batch of forward-looking indicators, including Novembers Westpac consumer confidence, October’s NAB business confidence indices, and key labour data.
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