• COVID-19 needs scientific approaches to cushion its impact both on lives and lives
• Proactive countries are likely to mitigate both the human lives and economic impact
• Zimbabwe is short on both lives and livelihood containment

The world over governments’ discussions have now shifted from only saving lives to include livelihoods. Lives pertains to the health aspects on human beings, which is at great risk under the pandemic while livelihoods pertain to the economic aspects of our lives, the means to sustain our lives. There is a clear payoff between saving lives and restoring livelihoods if the present crisis is mismanaged. The deadly virus has claimed over 150,000 lives since its outbreak in November 2019 with infection exponentially growing to above 2 million. A greater share of countries around the world have since imposed partial and countrywide lockdowns to manage the spread while focussing on key epidemiological aspects such as scaled up tests, quarantines, social distancing and tracking. This model has been successful particularly in Asia where countries which are even more closer to the initial epicentre China have recorded relatively low levels of infections and consequently deaths.

South Korea and Hong Kong have successfully implemented some of these measures and the results have been tremendous. Europe, which since February late emerged as the new epicentre did not take long to see exponential growth rates in numbers of new infections and with it sharp deaths rates. Spain and Italy, which for most of the time were the hardest hit earlier imposed some tough measures including nationwide lockdowns to flatten their curves. This week the countries moved to cautiously relax some of the measures as their countries went on the side of the curve. The number of new daily infections and deaths is now off peak levels in these countries.

The disease’s new epicentre is now the USA, while in Europe, the UK has overtaken Italy and Spain. From the epicentre dynamics, one thing is paramount and it is that different countries affected by the virus at varying time intervals reach peak levels of the new infections and deaths at similarly varying timelines. For example, Italy, was the closest in terms of early infections after China followed by its neighbour, Spain. The UK is 2 weeks behind Italy, while the USA is about 3 weeks behind. This loosely implies the UK may reach peak infections levels, at least 2 weeks after Italy’s own peak but that is if the UK, enforced similar tight controls to cushion the spread.

Another determinant of reaching peak levels is the level at which countries would have imposed control measures. If the UK, which is 2 weeks behind Italy in terms of when the disease was first discovered within its borders or the first spread was recorded, would have imposed lockdowns and strict social distancing measures earlier or around the time Italy would have imposed same, it would follow that UK would record lower numbers of both new infections and deaths than Italy and by implication, its curve would flatten earlier. The fact that the US is 3 weeks behind Italy and 2 behind UK, but has already reached peak infections levels points the latter point. Countries which moved in early and took aggressive tests could reach peak periods earlier.

All these epidemiological matrices will be pivotal in determining how quick economies will reopen. In the US, President Trump is desperate to push for an early re-opening of the economy and has announced a new COVID-19 taskforce comprising both medical specialists and business operators. Trump is encouraged by New York, which for 2 weeks was the epicentre of the disease in the US and now appears to have come off peak infections levels. In Italy, the Prime Minister has also moved to relax some lockdown measures by allowing some small businesses to reopen. The PM has resisted pressure from the business community to fully reopen the economy. In the UK, pressure has been mounting for government to address the matter of reopening the economy.

China has moved to fully reopen its economy with the most affected parts of the country, in Wuhan, finally being reopened 2 weeks ago. Interestingly, new infections have begun to come up in China, which on Sunday recorded 108 new infections, raising fears of a second wave of infections. China has however downplayed the possibility citing that the new infections are now more of imported cases than original cases emanating from within its borders. In South Korea, a new dynamic of reinfections has emerged. People who previously tested positive and later recovered, are beginning to register reinfections, even without third party exposure. It is quite clear that the world is not yet fully prepared to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis and reopen business without risking another outbreak. Rushed moves will trigger another wave of infections and given that vaccine and cure have not yet been found, the impact will recurringly, be dire.

Our view is that countries need to achieve the following before considering reopening. i) flattening curves ii) ensure social distancing is maintained after reopening iii) strict controls at workplaces (i.e investment in equipment that enables tests for temperatures, lung infections etc) iv) enhance tracking and monitoring. Africa is about 5 weeks behind Italy and Spain and this means we are still far off our peak levels and as mentioned earlier, reaching peak levels is dependent on other factors and these include, how early controls were instituted, level of tests and other similar supporting measures.

While Africa might have moved earlier than Europe to impose control measures such as lockdowns, the continent has some serious loopholes. The level of testing is very low when compared to other regions and this means some infections have gone unnoticed and this means the spread becomes unabated or lately detected. For example, Zimbabwe has only tested about 500 suspected cases since the outbreak while in Europe daily tests per country are close to 1000 in some cases. The US is planning to scale up the tests to about a million a day and of course population density comes to play.  Another aspect is health facilities, Zimbabwe and Sudan were recently singled out by the UN has being the least prepared countries in terms of health infrastructure, on a global scale. This means, the recovery levels from infected parties will come in lower. Global recovery rates have been in the region of 20% and Africa may record less than 10% meaning chances of recovering will be slim thus catalysing the death rate.

A structural and fundamental aspect is population density within certain communities such as the high density areas. Due to high poverty levels, Africa retains a high population density within its slums and most high density areas compared to other regions. This makes it very difficult to effect social distancing within homesteads, which may have between 10 and 15 family members. In most high density areas, leasing rooms, is also a source of livelihood and this increases the density per household unit and likewise the risk of infections. For Zimbabwe, 65% of the economy is informal and typically these business are very small with minimum cash-flow latitude. In essence there are no savings to talk about a factor further precipitated by hyperinflation. Given this challenge, citizens are forced to survive from hand to mouth and therefore cannot buy or afford a month’s purchase of basics in one swoop. We have therefore witnessed daily queues of desperate citizens trying to buy one good or the other and mostly mealie meal, a staple diet, which has been in short supply.

These sights of citizens pushing and shoving are common sight on a daily basis throughout the country at grocery shops, gas stations and water sources. with low tests, Africa will be more vulnerable to increased levels of infections, regardless of how early “lockdowns” were effected. Statistics from the Ministry of Health shows that the daily rate of infections is still going up despite under-testing. At present Zimbabwe has about 17 confirmed cases as at Monday and this shows exponential growth despite the small sample. If business is to open today, the country will have one key aspect to address and that is the public transport system. To effectively maintain social distancing, ZUPCOs will have to ramped up in terms of capacity, while small private commuters will have to be phased out or tightly monitored particularly for disinfectants and number of commuters on-board. Likewise the availability of face masks will have to be significantly improved or made mandatory.

Companies such as Google and Apple have partnered to come up with a COVID-19 tracking system. It essentially tracks and flags infected persons. Some companies in the US such as Amazon and Tesla are installing Thermal Camera at entrance points within the company’s premises, while constantly monitoring temperatures of the personnel at work as part of control measures. These are examples of how some corporates are leveraging technology to control the spread of the virus. The need to mitigate the downside effects of COVID-19 on livelihoods, will soon push countries to make sacrifices, Zimbabwe included. It is imperative for authorities to exercise caution and allow for more scientific approaches to help solve the puzzle. Companies will need to exercise even more caution, using a phased approach to reopening. Vulnerable employees will have to be identified, based on mode of transportation to work, location and other possible indicators. These may have to be on extended leave for some time. The lack of an effective government stimulus will however make it more challenging for companies for restart. Countries, such as South Africa, which have rolled out some massive stimulus packages for companies, vulnerable groups and employees, will likely take off at a faster pace. For Zimbabwe, 2020 will inevitably be another recession year and companies will have to brace for further dearth in demand and subsequent volumes loss.

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