Zimbabwe's Climate Adaptation Crisis: Farmers Are Being Told What to Grow, but Who Will Buy It?

• Sorghum deliveries reached 31,951 tonnes between 1 April and 24 July 2026, rising 15%, compared with 106% growth in maize deliveries
• The Grain Marketing Board pays US$364.75 per tonne for both maize and traditional grains, although equal prices do not guarantee comparable returns for farmers
• Zimbabwe's 2023/24 drought affected 7.6 million people, including 3.5 million children, and prompted a US$3.9 billion government response appeal

Harare – Zimbabwe's efforts to protect agriculture against recurring droughts are facing a commercial challenge as farmers encouraged to grow climate-resilient grains encounter a market that continues to favour maize, raising questions about the profitability of agricultural adaptation.

The problem is becoming more consequential ahead of the 2026/27 agricultural season. Sorghum, pearl millet and finger millet can withstand certain dry conditions better than conventional maize varieties, making them important alternatives in low-rainfall regions. Government has supported their cultivation through agricultural extension, conservation farming programmes and producer-price incentives.

More than 322,000 hectares are under traditional grains, yet their participation in formal marketing channels remains relatively limited. Agricultural Marketing Authority data show that sorghum deliveries reached 31,951 tonnes between 1 April and 24 July 2026, increasing 15% from 27,804 tonnes a year earlier. Maize deliveries grew by 106% to 312,717 tonnes, while soyabean deliveries increased by 58%.

An official at AMA, who requested anonymity said, “These figures measure formal deliveries rather than total production or consumption so some grain is retained for household use or sold informally, making it difficult to determine how much of the difference arises from production volumes or commercial demand.

“Nevertheless, the disparity raises an important question about the market opportunities available to farmers cultivating drought-tolerant crops.”

He added that for agricultural adaptation to succeed, farmers need sufficient harvests, reliable buyers and earnings that cover production costs as crop resilience alone cannot sustain livelihoods when the commercial returns are inadequate.

Zimbabwe's 2023/24 El Niño drought demonstrated the economic and humanitarian consequences of rainfall-dependent agriculture.

UNICEF estimated that 7.6 million Zimbabweans, including 3.5 million children, were affected. More than 60% of planted crops were lost, while 1.4 million people required nutrition assistance and approximately 1.8 million learners faced educational disruption risks.

Government launched a US$3.9 billion drought response appeal, comprising US$2 billion for immediate requirements and US$1.9 billion for resilience-building interventions. This represented estimated financing needs rather than verified economic losses.

Beyond lost harvests, the drought depleted household food stocks and agricultural earnings, increasing dependence on emergency assistance and limiting farmers' ability to finance subsequent planting seasons. These consequences were particularly severe for households in low-rainfall regions, where agricultural production remains highly exposed to weather variability.

Traditional grains can help reduce this vulnerability through improved crop survival under certain dry conditions. Their contribution to household resilience ultimately depends on the food and income farmers obtain from production.

The Grain Marketing Board's buying price of US$364.75 per tonne applies equally to maize and traditional grains, removing a nominal price disadvantage for farmers supplying the state buyer.

However, identical prices do not produce identical profits. Farmers must account for yields, seed, labour, harvesting expenses, transport, storage and the availability of buyers.

At the official price, two tonnes would generate US$729.50 in gross revenue, while three tonnes would earn US$1,094.25 before costs. These figures illustrate the importance of saleable harvest volumes rather than actual farmer earnings.

In drought-prone areas, farmers may favour crops with a greater probability of surviving moisture stress, even where expected yields are lower. That decision remains economically viable only if the resulting harvest provides adequate food or income to support future production.

Price parity therefore addresses one obstacle to traditional-grain adoption, but reliable market access and sufficient returns remain equally important.

Tawanda Musekiwa, a communal farmer in Chirumhanzu, Masvingo Province, said limited demand for traditional grains remains a major challenge for producers, with consumers continuing to prioritise maize despite its vulnerability during droughts.

Musekiwa called for Government to promote traditional grains more actively, including through Zimbabwe's tourism and hospitality industry, to strengthen demand and create additional markets for farmers.

The proposal could connect climate adaptation with commercial food consumption. Hotels, restaurants and tourism operators purchasing traditional-grain products would provide additional outlets for processors and farmers, potentially improving the economic incentives for cultivating crops better suited to drought-prone areas.

Sorghum already has established industrial markets through opaque-beer production, animal feed and food processing.

Delta Corporation uses the crop in its Chibuku operations, connecting agricultural production to a major consumer price. Its trading update for the nine months ended December 2025 reported an 18% increase in Zimbabwean sorghum-beer volumes, including 21% growth during the final quarter.

The figures established growing beverage sales, but do not quantify Delta's purchases of locally produced sorghum or the volumes supplied by smallholder farmers.

That information is important because the commercial benefit to growers depends on actual procurement. Industrial demand must translate into purchases at prices that allow farmers to recover their costs.

The quantities processors can absorb, their quality requirements and their sourcing arrangements would help establish how much additional traditional-grain production the market can support.

Farmer aggregation, improved storage and transport infrastructure could strengthen smallholder participation by allowing producers to supply industrial buyers more consistently.

Zimbabwe's traditional grains also offer opportunities in international food markets, particularly through processed products. In June 2026, ZimTrade identified value-addition opportunities in sorghum, millet, rapoko and pearl millet, pointing to demand for gluten-free and alternative grain products.

Buy Zimbabwe's Advocacy and Communications Officer, Elvis Masvaure, has encouraged the country to pursue value addition in traditional grains, strengthening the commercial opportunities available beyond selling unprocessed agricultural commodities.

Processing sorghum and millet into flour, cereals, snacks and other packaged foods could widen demand among domestic consumers, supermarkets, restaurants and hospitality operators. It could also strengthen the link between agricultural production and manufacturing, allowing more value to be retained within Zimbabwe's food industry.

The opportunity extends internationally.

ZimTrade has encouraged producers to develop value-added products from sorghum, millet, rapoko and pearl millet to tap growing demand for gluten-free and health-oriented foods. Realising that opportunity would require competitive processing, consistent quality, adequate supply volumes and reliable export markets.

Processing these crops into flour, cereals, snacks and packaged foods could expand commercial demand while creating additional activity in manufacturing, packaging and distribution.

However, accessing export markets requires competitive pricing, reliable volumes, quality certification and efficient logistics. Demand abroad would benefit Zimbabwean farmers only where processors purchase locally produced grain on sustainable commercial terms.

The opportunity therefore lies in building processing capacity and market relationships capable of converting traditional-grain production into higher-value products.

Agricultural adaptation is frequently measured through hectares planted, seed distributed and tonnes harvested. These indicators establish production activity but provide an incomplete assessment of household resilience.

A farmer retaining sorghum for household consumption may improve food security without recording substantial sales. Another selling a larger harvest may still struggle financially if production and marketing expenses absorb most of the revenue.

Assessing resilience therefore requires evidence on district-level yields, household grain stocks, prices received, production costs and farmers' ability to finance subsequent planting seasons.

These measures would help identify whether support should focus on improved seed, agronomic practices, processing infrastructure or commercial market access.

For traditional grains to become sustainable components of Zimbabwe's agricultural economy, increased cultivation must be supported by arrangements that allow farmers to obtain sufficient food and dependable earnings.

Zimbabwe enters the 2026/27 agricultural season with the experience of a drought that affected millions of people and weakened rural livelihoods.

Government has promoted traditional grains and established producer-price parity with maize. Sorghum deliveries have increased, although their growth remains significantly below that of maize.

The next priority is establishing why that difference persists and whether expanded industrial processing, domestic consumption and export markets can strengthen demand for drought-tolerant crops.

Better information on production, household retention, informal trade and industrial procurement would help direct investment towards the constraints limiting farmers' returns.

Zimbabwe's climate adaptation strategy has identified crops suited to difficult rainfall conditions. Its success will depend on whether farmers can earn enough from those crops to maintain production, protect household food security and withstand future droughts.

For farming households, climate resilience must ultimately provide enough food to survive a difficult season and sufficient income to prepare for the next.

 Equity Axis News