• TIMB calls for early aphid surveillance and destruction of tobacco stalks
• Kutsaga recommends drought-adapted varieties for dryland production areas
• Record 2026 sales volume came with a lower US$2.49-per-kilogram average price

Harare — The Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board has advised growers to begin early aphid surveillance, destroy tobacco stalks and maintain strict field sanitation ahead of the 2026/27 planting season, as Zimbabwe enters a strong El Niño cycle.

The advice comes as growers prepare seedbeds and select varieties for a season expected to carry a greater risk of dry conditions. Kutsaga Research has recommended KRK 71, KRK 75, KRK 26R, T78, T79, T80 and T81 for growers in drought-prone areas, subject to their production circumstances.

The response extends beyond moisture conservation. TIMB and Kutsaga have identified aphids as a major risk under warm and dry conditions because the insects can multiply rapidly and transmit Potato Virus Y and Tobacco Bushy Top Virus. The industry has also instructed growers to destroy stalks and remove volunteer tobacco plants that can carry pests and disease between seasons.

The measures enter a sector where volume alone has ceased to describe grower earnings. Zimbabwe closed the 2026 tobacco marketing season with more than 357 million kilograms sold, ahead of the 354.8 million kilograms recorded in the previous season. The average price fell to US$2.49 per kilogram from about US$3.30 in 2025, leaving the larger crop with materially lower value per kilogram.

The comparison places leaf quality at the centre of the next production cycle. A stronger harvest can support national export volume, while lower grades, disease pressure and reduced buyer competition narrow the income realised from every kilogram delivered. Tobacco’s 2026 outcome placed a record crop into a market carrying higher global supply and stock overhangs.

China accounted for 34% of Zimbabwe’s tobacco export volume during the 2026 selling season, according to TIMB. The concentration places the sector’s foreign-currency earnings in a market where Zimbabwe has limited control over global leaf supply, buyer inventories and prices. Production decisions at farm level therefore carry greater weight when the international market offers less room for weak quality or avoidable crop losses.

The current El Niño outlook adds a second pressure point.The World Meteorological Organisation says El Niño has become established and has an exceptionally high likelihood of persisting through February 2027. The event is expected to strengthen further toward the end of 2026, although the organisation cautions that an individual country’s rainfall outcome is shaped by other ocean and atmospheric conditions as well.

Zimbabwe has already experienced the tobacco exposure created by a severe El Niño season. Tobacco output fell from 296 million kilograms in 2023 to about 234 million kilograms in 2024 after drought reduced yields and affected leaf quality. The 2025 and 2026 recoveries restored production above 350 million kilograms, though they also coincided with weaker prices as global tobacco supplies expanded.

Kutsaga’s varietal guidance addresses the production side of that risk. KRK 71 and KRK 75 have deep-rooting characteristics that allow plants to access moisture deeper in the soil. The T78 to T81 series has a faster establishment and maturity profile intended to reduce exposure to late-season moisture stress. The varieties do not remove the need for water, pest control, fertiliser management or curing discipline.

Aphid control carries an equally direct quality risk. Potato Virus Y and Tobacco Bushy Top Virus spread through aphid activity, while tobacco stalks and volunteer plants can maintain a host environment between seasons. Once viral infection takes hold, growers have no curative treatment for affected plants; field sanitation and early monitoring contain the spread before it reaches commercial scale.

This places stalk destruction within the economics of the crop. It is a low-cost control measure against a disease pathway that can reduce plant performance, lower leaf quality and weaken the value of a contracted crop. The same applies to seed selection in dryland areas, where a variety chosen for normal rainfall can leave growers exposed to moisture stress before leaf reaches the curing stage.

The industry’s preparation now has two measurable stages. Seed and seedbed decisions will establish how many dryland growers have shifted into Kutsaga’s recommended varieties and whether pest surveillance begins before aphid populations rise. The later production record will sit in planted area, aphid incidence, virus reports, cured-leaf grades, rejection rates, delivered volume and the average price received by growers.

Zimbabwe’s tobacco sector has entered the next season with a larger production base and a weaker price benchmark. The ability to protect leaf quality and plant health during the growing cycle now carries as much commercial weight as the total kilograms delivered to the floors.

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