The proposed rating would place Zimbabwe’s improving growth, inflation and external accounts against US$22.8 billion in public debt and a longstanding external arrears burden

· Zimbabwe intends to seek a sovereign credit rating as its re-engagement programme advances.
· Public and publicly guaranteed debt stood at an estimated US$22.8 billion at the end of 2025.
· A rating would establish an external measure of sovereign risk, while arrears resolution remains central to restoring access to lower-cost, long-term capital.

HARARE – Zimbabwe intends to seek a sovereign credit rating, taking its economic reform programme into a more demanding phase in which recent improvements in growth, inflation and foreign-currency generation will be assessed against the country’s debt burden, external arrears and policy record.

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube announced the plan on Monday while introducing President Emmerson Mnangagwa at the official opening of Ecobank Zimbabwe’s new headquarters in Harare. He placed the proposed rating within the Government’s wider re-engagement agenda, alongside the IMF Staff-Monitored Program, stronger economic growth, lower inflation and rising foreign-currency receipts.

For Zimbabwe, obtaining a rating would move the reform narrative beyond Government’s own assessment of economic progress. Sovereign rating agencies examine repayment capacity through debt sustainability, fiscal flexibility, reserve adequacy, external financing conditions, institutional strength and policy consistency. Zimbabwe’s recent stabilisation would therefore be assessed alongside liabilities and arrears accumulated over more than two decades.

Ncube said the economy expanded by 8.3% in 2025 and is expected to grow by around 5% in 2026, supported by agriculture, mining and improvements in the operating environment. The IMF also expects growth of about 5% this year, with agriculture, mining and elevated gold prices among the main contributors to economic activity.

Inflation has fallen sharply over the same period. ZIMSTAT recorded annual ZiG inflation of 3.2% in July before a further moderation in August, extending the period of single-digit local-currency inflation established during 2026. Tight monetary conditions and relative stability in the official exchange rate have provided part of the foundation for that improvement.

Zimbabwe’s external position has also strengthened. Ncube said foreign-currency receipts reached US$10.72 billion during the first half and expects inflows of at least US$20 billion for the full year. Merchandise trade data have moved in the same direction, with July exports of approximately US$1.47 billion exceeding imports of US$1.15 billion and producing a monthly trade surplus of US$320.6 million.

Those numbers strengthen part of Zimbabwe’s sovereign-risk case. They do not remove the constraint that has kept the country outside conventional international financing markets for years.

IMF estimates put total public and publicly guaranteed debt at US$22.8 billion at the end of 2025, equivalent to 43.8% of GDP. External public debt accounted for US$15.2 billion, while arrears to official external creditors were estimated at US$7.7 billion. Zimbabwe had also accumulated arrears to commercial creditors and suspended servicing some domestic obligations.

The headline debt-to-GDP ratio consequently provides an incomplete picture of sovereign risk. Zimbabwe remains classified by the IMF as being in external and overall debt distress, while longstanding arrears continue to restrict access to concessional financing and international capital markets.

That is where the proposed credit rating becomes commercially important. A formal sovereign rating would give lenders and investors a common reference point for pricing Zimbabwean risk, improve comparison with other regional borrowers and establish a benchmark against which progress on debt restructuring, fiscal management and institutional reform can be measured.

The rating itself would not remove the financing constraint. It would neither clear arrears nor create additional debt-service capacity, and a rating at the weaker end of the scale could initially confirm the high risk premium investors already attach to Zimbabwe.

The more important test for Government would therefore be what happens to the rating after it is established. Upgrades would require measurable progress in arrears clearance and debt restructuring, stronger reserves, disciplined fiscal execution, predictable treatment of public-sector obligations and tighter governance around public borrowing. These are ultimately the variables that shape the return creditors demand for assuming Zimbabwean sovereign risk.

Ncube also pointed to changes in Zimbabwe’s treatment under the World Bank’s fragility framework as part of the Government’s improving investment case. That comparison requires care. Zimbabwe was included under institutional and social fragility in the World Bank’s FY2026 Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations list, while the Bank changed its classification methodology from July 2026 and replaced the previous combined framework with separate Public FCV and Institutional Fragility lists. Movement between the two frameworks is therefore not directly comparable without accounting for the methodological change.

The IMF Staff-Monitored Program provides a separate and more measurable test of policy execution. The first review found that Zimbabwe had met all quantitative targets and structural benchmarks through the end of March, although the indicative target covering protected social and priority expenditure was missed. Building that policy track record is important because successful re-engagement ultimately requires creditors to see evidence that reforms can survive beyond individual review periods.

The setting of Ncube’s announcement also carries commercial relevance. Ecobank’s new headquarters represents capital already committed by a banking group with operations across several African markets. A sovereign rating addresses the wider cost of capital facing that investment environment because country risk feeds into financing terms for infrastructure, corporate borrowing, foreign direct investment and long-duration projects.

For Equity Axis, the rating should be treated as a baseline rather than an achievement in itself. The initial grade, the agency’s outlook, the weight assigned to external arrears and the conditions attached to any future upgrade will provide a clearer assessment of how international creditors view Zimbabwe’s economic repair.

Zimbabwe has strengthened several of the variables that sovereign rating agencies examine, including growth, inflation and foreign-currency generation. The next phase subjects those improvements to the harder parts of the sovereign balance sheet: debt sustainability, payment history, reserves, fiscal credibility and institutional execution.

If Government wants the rating exercise to change financing conditions rather than merely document them, the measurable outcome is straightforward: Zimbabwe must build a record strong enough for its risk premium to decline over time. - Equity Axis