• Zambia's economy expanded 7.7% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 4.5% a year earlier
  • Agriculture contributed 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth following improved rainfall and a strong maize harvest
  • The recovery is being reinforced by rising investment, easing inflation, improving macroeconomic stability and continued mining expansion

Harare - Zambia's economy expanded by 7.7% during the first quarter of 2026, marking its fastest quarterly growth in several years as a strong agricultural recovery, improving domestic demand and expanding services activity lifted economic momentum well above the 4.5% recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.

The performance signals that Zambia's recovery is becoming increasingly broad-based following two years of severe climate disruptions and energy constraints that slowed economic activity across several productive sectors.

According to the Zambia Statistics Agency, agriculture, forestry and fisheries made the single largest contribution to first-quarter growth, adding 1.9 percentage points to overall GDP expansion. Wholesale and retail trade contributed 0.9 percentage points, while information and communication added 0.8 percentage points, illustrating that growth was supported by both production and consumption sectors.

At current prices, Zambia's gross domestic product reached K191 billion during the quarter, compared with K153 billion a year earlier. Mining and quarrying remained the country's largest economic sector, accounting for 14.8% of total output, followed by wholesale and retail trade at 12.1% and transport and storage at 11.2%.

While Zambia remains globally recognised as one of Africa's leading copper producers, the first quarter demonstrates that agriculture has temporarily reclaimed its position as the principal driver of economic expansion. That shift reflects the country's recovery from one of the most severe droughts in recent history.

The 2023/24 El Niño drought sharply reduced agricultural production, weakened hydropower generation, constrained industrial activity and slowed economic growth across much of the country. Crop failures reduced rural incomes while low water levels affected electricity generation, exposing the close relationship between agriculture, energy and industrial production within Zambia's economy.

Improved rainfall during the 2024/25 agricultural season produced one of the strongest maize harvests in recent years, restoring production across major farming regions. Above-average rainfall continued into the 2025/26 season, improving vegetation conditions, replenishing soil moisture and supporting farming activity across Central, Copperbelt and Eastern provinces. The recovery extended beyond crop production into transport, agro-processing, agricultural trade and rural consumption.

Although mining generates the largest share of export earnings and government revenue, agriculture provides livelihoods for the majority of the population. Strong harvests therefore create multiplier effects that extend well beyond farm output. Higher rural incomes increase household spending, strengthen retail activity, support transport operators and stimulate demand for financial and communication services.

Wholesale and retail trade emerged as the second-largest contributor to GDP growth as stronger agricultural incomes supported consumer spending. Information and communication also expanded as digital adoption continued to accelerate alongside improved electricity availability following the recovery in reservoir levels that support Zambia's hydroelectric generation system.

The country remains Africa's second-largest copper producer and holds some of the world's largest undeveloped copper resources, positioning it to benefit from rising global demand associated with electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and power transmission networks. New mine developments and expansion projects are expected to lift national copper production towards the government's long-term target of three million tonnes annually.

Zambia recorded US$1.69 billion in actualised investments during the first quarter alone, creating almost 10,000 jobs, with industry and agriculture attracting the largest share of new capital. Since 2021, cumulative realised investment has exceeded US$16 billion, reflecting growing investor confidence following macroeconomic reforms, debt restructuring and an improving business environment.

Following several years of fiscal pressure, Zambia has made meaningful progress in restructuring its external debt under the G20 Common Framework while implementing reforms supported by the International Monetary Fund. Debt sustainability has improved, inflation has moderated from previous double-digit levels as food supplies recovered, and the kwacha has shown greater stability. These developments are improving business confidence while creating room for lower borrowing costs and stronger private-sector activity.

Growth during 2025 remained subdued at 3.8%, reflecting the lingering effects of drought, electricity shortages and weaker activity across trade, finance and information services. The acceleration to 7.7% in the opening quarter of 2026 places the economy on course to exceed most annual growth forecasts if current momentum is maintained through the remainder of the year.

Agriculture remains highly exposed to climate variability, making irrigation expansion, water management and climate-resilient farming increasingly important. Mining continues to expose the economy to fluctuations in global copper prices despite efforts to diversify. Power generation capacity requires continued investment to reduce dependence on hydrological conditions, while formal employment creation must accelerate to absorb Zambia's rapidly growing labour force.

The Eighth National Development Plan places increasing emphasis on expanding agro-processing, manufacturing, tourism, logistics and non-traditional exports while strengthening private-sector competitiveness and decentralising economic activity. Successful implementation would reduce dependence on both rainfall and copper while creating a broader and more resilient economic base.

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