• Zimbabwe's gold output in Jan-Feb 2026 reached 6.46 tonnes, a 12.7% increase from 5.73 tonnes in 2025, marking the highest Jan-Feb production on record
• The country targets 50 tonnes of gold production in 2026, up from 46.7 tonnes in 2025, driven by artisanal and small-scale miners (ASSM) and large-scale operations
• The gold sector faces a complex policy environment, with a 10% royalty on large-scale miners, 10% ZiG payment requirement for ASSM, and a 30% ZiG surrender requirement

Harare- Zimbabwe's gold output in the first two months of 2026 improved significantly, reaching 6.46 tonnes from 5.73 tonnes recorded in the same period of 2025, a 12.7% increase that marks the highest January to February production figure the country has posted on record.

The country targets 50 tonnes for the 2026 full year, having achieved 46.7 tonnes in 2025, a historic milestone that itself exceeded the government's 40-tonne target and surpassed every prior annual record.

The policies shaping the gold sector and the structural reforms introduced at the start of 2026 are fundamental to unpacking what is driving the sector's strong opening performance, what risks sit beneath it, and whether the conditions exist for the 50-tonne target to be reached.

To appreciate the significance of the 6.46-tonne January to February figure, the historical trajectory must be read in full. In the equivalent period of 2018, Zimbabwe produced 4.61 tonnes. Output fell to 3.92 tonnes in 2019 and further to 3.90 tonnes in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting mine operations, supply chains, and artisanal mining activity simultaneously. The most acute contraction came in 2021, when the January to February output collapsed to just 2.17 tonnes, a figure that reflected the combined effect of policy uncertainty, foreign currency shortages, and the lingering operational disruptions of the pandemic period.

The recovery since then has been consistent and compounding: 5.12 tonnes in the equivalent period of 2022, and 5.73 tonnes in early 2025. The 6.46 tonnes of early 2026 represents the continuation of a growth arc that has now nearly tripled output from the 2021 trough across the same seasonal window. That recovery is structural, and it is driven by both the formalisation of artisanal mining through the Fidelity delivery system and the sustained expansion of the contract farming model that has anchored ASSM production in recent years.

Two significant policy changes became effective in January 2026 and together define the fiscal environment in which this record output is being generated. The first is the tiered royalty structure introduced under the Finance Act 2025, enacted in January 2026. Below $5,000 per ounce, the royalty rate for large-scale miners is 5% of gross revenue. Above $5,000 per ounce, it escalates to 10%. Throughout 2025, with gold averaging approximately $3,431 per ounce, the 5% rate applied for the entire year.

In early February 2026, the gold price breached the $5,000 per ounce threshold for the first time, activating the 10% tier. As of March 2026, gold is trading at approximately $5,025 per ounce, meaning every ounce of large-scale mine production is now subject to the higher royalty rate. The royalty is levied on gross revenue, paid off the top line before any operating cost deduction. On estimated large-scale miner revenues of approximately $1.15 billion in 2025, the 5% royalty generated approximately $57.5 million.

At current gold prices approaching $5,100 per ounce and assuming the same production volume, large-scale miner revenues rise to approximately $1.91 billion in 2026 and the 10% royalty generates approximately $191 million, more than triple the 2025 royalty take.

The second policy change directly affects the artisanal and small-scale mining sector. Under the February 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, ASSM miners who deliver gold to Fidelity now receive 90% of their payment in US dollars and 10% in Zimbabwe Gold, replacing the previous arrangement under which they received 100% of their payment in US dollars. This represents the first time the artisanal sector has been brought into the ZiG payment framework and is a deliberate step toward expanding local currency circulation through the gold supply chain.

For large-scale miners, the 30% surrender requirement iremains unchanged, they are required to convert 30% of their foreign currency earnings into ZiG at the official interbank rate, a requirement that at a 30% parallel market premium imposes an implicit cost of approximately 9 cents on every dollar surrendered.

These two policy changes sit in tension with the production record being celebrated. The tiered royalty doubling to 10% at precisely the moment gold prices have crossed $5,000 per ounce is the most significant fiscal development in the sector since the royalty structure was revised. Its timing is not coincidental, the Finance Act 2025 was designed with the awareness that gold prices were trending upward and that a tiered structure would allow the government to capture more revenue as the price environment improved.

For the government, a royalty that generates $191 million in 2026 against $57.5 million in 2025 is a dramatic improvement in the fiscal return from gold. For large-scale mining investors, the doubling of the royalty at current prices removes a significant portion of the upside leverage that makes long-duration mining investment rational in a high-price environment.

The 10% royalty at $5,000 plus per ounce, combined with the 24.75% corporate income tax on gross revenues and the 30% ZiG surrender requirement, means large-scale miners are operating under a combined visible fiscal burden that comfortably exceeds 40% of gross earnings before CSR obligations, VAT on capital equipment, and other levies are counted.

The production structure of Zimbabwe's gold sector continues to be defined by the dominance of artisanal and small-scale miners. Of the 46.7 tonnes produced in 2025, ASSM contributed approximately 35 tonnes, representing 75% of national output, with the remainder delivered by large-scale operations led by Caledonia Mining's Blanket Mine, Freda Rebecca, and Padenga Holdings.

The January to February 2026 figures are consistent with this structural split, meaning that the record early-season output is being driven primarily by the ASSM sector, the same sector that now faces the new 10% ZiG payment requirement on Fidelity deliveries. The practical impact of the 10% ZiG component on artisanal miners is an implicit cost of approximately 3 cents per dollar earned, applying the 30% parallel market premium to the 10% local currency portion. At an average gold price of $3,431 per ounce in 2025 and ASSM deliveries of approximately 35 tonnes, that implicit cost was approximately $103 million. In 2026, at $5,025 per ounce and assuming the same ASSM volume, the implicit cost rises proportionately.

The question of whether the 10% ZiG component creates a meaningful disincentive for ASSM delivery to Fidelity is the most analytically important policy question the early 2026 production data cannot yet answer. The January to February output of 6.46 tonnes suggests that ASSM delivery rates have not materially declined in response to the policy change. This could mean that the implicit cost of the 10% ZiG component is small enough relative to the benefits of formal Fidelity delivery, including price transparency, payment security, and access to the interbank market for foreign currency needs, that miners are absorbing it.

It could also reflect the fact that the 10% ZiG requirement was only introduced in the February MPS and the full season's delivery patterns will take several more months to assess. The March to June delivery window, when the bulk of ASSM output typically flows through Fidelity in the seasonal production cycle, will provide the definitive read on whether the ZiG payment change has altered behaviour or been absorbed without disruption.

Against the record January to February output of 6.46 tonnes, the 50-tonne full-year target requires an average monthly production rate of approximately 4.17 tonnes for the remaining ten months of the year. The January to February average of 3.23 tonnes per month implies that production must accelerate meaningfully through the remaining season to reach 50 tonnes.

Applying the seasonality pattern from 2025, in which the full year of 46.7 tonnes was distributed unevenly across the calendar with the highest production months typically falling between April and August when weather conditions support both ASSM and large-scale mine operations, the 50-tonne target is within the range of achievable outcomes if the early-season pace is maintained and accelerates modestly into the peak production months.

The full-year 2025 trajectory is the most relevant benchmark. In 2025, the country started the year at approximately 5.73 tonnes in the first two months and ended at 46.7 tonnes, implying that January and February represented approximately 12.3% of the full-year total. Applying that same seasonality ratio to the 2026 January to February figure of 6.46 tonnes projects a full-year output of approximately 52.5 tonnes.

That projection, if realised, would exceed the 50-tonne target and set a new annual production record. The caveat is that the seasonality ratio is an approximation and the production trajectory in the critical March to August window will be shaped by factors including ASSM delivery rates, large-scale mine operational performance, gold price incentives, and the degree to which the new ZiG payment requirements affect formal channel utilisation.

The outlook for Zimbabwe's gold sector in 2026 is shaped by three simultaneous forces pulling in different directions. The first is the price environment, gold above $5,000 per ounce creates the most favourable earnings backdrop for producers in the history of Zimbabwe's gold mining industry. At $5,025 per ounce, every tonne of gold Zimbabwe delivers to Fidelity generates approximately $161.6 million in export receipts. A 50-tonne year at current prices would generate approximately $8.1 billion in gross gold earnings, compared to $4.6 billion generated in 2025 from 46.7 tonnes at an average of $3,431. The revenue potential of the 2026 season, if the price environment holds, is transformational for Zimbabwe's foreign currency position.

The second force is the fiscal burden escalation. The 10% royalty on large-scale miners, the 24.75% corporate income tax on gross revenues, the 30% ZiG surrender requirement, and the 10% ZiG component now applied to ASSM deliveries collectively represent the most comprehensive fiscal extraction from the gold sector that Zimbabwe has deployed. The total visible fiscal burden on large-scale miners in 2026, combining royalty and corporate income tax at current gold prices, is estimated at approximately $664 million on projected large-scale revenues of $1.91 billion, representing approximately 34.8% of gross revenue before the ZiG surrender implicit cost, CSR obligations, VAT on capital equipment, and other levies are applied. This burden, while generating increased revenue for the government, is also the primary risk to the investment pipeline of large-scale projects whose development decisions are being made or deferred in the current policy environment.

The third force is the pipeline of large-scale investment that the 50-tonne and 100-tonne production ambitions depend upon. Caledonia Mining's Bilboes project at $584 million, Namib Minerals' proposed restart of Mazowe and Redwing requiring $300 to $400 million, and Ariana Resources' Dokwe project at 1.42 million ounces are the specific assets that take Zimbabwe from 47 to 100 tonnes of annual output. None of them will be developed under a fiscal regime whose trajectory is toward higher rates at higher prices without some commitment to stability.

The record January to February output, the record 2025 full year, and the 50-tonne trajectory in 2026 are all achievements being generated primarily by the artisanal sector on a base of existing large-scale mines. The next generation of production growth requires the next generation of capital investment, and that capital is watching the royalty structure, the ZiG surrender requirement, and the VAT on capital equipment with the same attention that the production data deserves.

Zimbabwe's gold sector is in the strongest production position of the post-land-reform era. The first two months of 2026 have confirmed that the growth trajectory established over the past four years is continuing to compound. The 50-tonne target for the year is within reach on current pace and consistent with the seasonality model derived from 2025.

The policy environment surrounding that production is the most complex and consequential it has been in the sector's modern history, with a royalty structure that has just activated its upper tier, a ZiG payment requirement now applying to both the artisanal and large-scale sectors, and an investment pipeline whose deployment is contingent on fiscal predictability that the government has so far provided in form but not yet fully in substance. 

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