• Zimbabwe's tea sector experienced a slowdown in 2025, with exports totaling US$12.66 million, down from US$15.7 million in 2024
• The industry is recovering from a historic low in 2023, with January 2026 exports at US$1.3 million, suggesting potential stabilisation
• Zimbabwe's tea exports will likely rebound to US$15-20 million in 2026 if rains hold and global prices firm, driven by growing demand for premium and health-focused teas

Harare- Zimbabwe's tea sector, a cornerstone of the nation's agricultural exports, experienced a notable slowdown in 2025, with shipments totaling US$12.66 million, a decline from US$15.7 million in 2024 according to data from Zimstat. This dip, however, masks a remarkable recovery from the US$1.3 million low in 2023, building on stronger performances of US$18.25 million in 2022 and US$16.1 million in 2021.

Early indicators for 2026 show January exports at US$1.3 million, suggesting a potential stabilisation. This fluctuation reflects broader challenges in Zimbabwe's export-oriented tea industry, including climatic disruptions, global market dynamics, and domestic production constraints, even as key players like Tanganda Tea Company and Ariston Holdings demonstrate adaptive strategies.

In a global tea market projected to grow from US$69.26 billion in 2024 to US$122.59 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 6.55%, Zimbabwe's sector must navigate these headwinds to capitalize on rising demand for premium and health-focused teas.

Zimbabwe's tea exports have exhibited a rollercoaster pattern over the past five years, emblematic of the sector's sensitivity to both internal and external factors. From a robust US$16.1 million in 2021, exports peaked at US$18.25 million in 2022, driven by favorable weather, increased production, and strong demand in traditional markets like Europe and the Middle East.

The precipitous drop to US$1.3 million in 2023 was largely attributed to severe drought conditions exacerbated by El Niño, which decimated yields across the eastern highlands, the primary tea-growing region encompassing estates in Chipinge and Chimanimani. This climatic shock reduced national tea production to historic lows, with output falling below 10,000 tonnes, compared to an average of 20,000-25,000 tonnes in good years.

The rebound to US$15.7 million in 2024 marked a partial recovery, fueled by improved rainfall patterns and investments in irrigation by major producers. However, the 2025 slowdown to US$12.66 million highlights persistent issues, including rising input costs of fertilizers, labour, , and subdued global prices amid oversupply from giants like China and India. January 2026's US$1.3 million figure, while modest, aligns with seasonal trends where exports ramp up later in the year following the main harvest season from October to April.

Overall, these figures position Zimbabwe as a minor but specialized player in the global tea trade, ranking 36th in exports with a value of around US$19.6 million in recent estimates, focusing on high-quality black teas that command premiums in niche markets. This volatility however, shows the sector's dependence on rain-fed agriculture, with over 90% of smallholder tea farms lacking advanced irrigation.

The 2023 nadir, for instance, coincided with Zimbabwe's broader agricultural crisis, where maize and other crops also suffered, leading to a US$500 million food import bill. The subsequent upticks in 2024 and early 2026 suggest resilience through adaptive measures, but the 19% decline from 2024 to 2025 raises concerns about sustainability in a climate-vulnerable region projected to face more frequent droughts under global warming scenarios.

Several interconnected factors explain Zimbabwe's tea export trends. Climatically, the eastern highlands' suitability for tea, cool temperatures, high rainfall (over 1,000mm annually), and acidic soils has been compromised by erratic weather.

The 2023 El Niño reduced yields by up to 50% in some estates, while 2024's La Niña brought relief, boosting production to around 18,000 tonnes nationally. For 2025, a combination of delayed rains and pest infestations (red spider mites) contributed to the export dip, with industry estimates indicating a 10-15% yield drop.

Global tea prices averaged US$2.50-3.00 per kg in 2025, down from peaks in 2022 due to oversupply from China producing 3.74 million tonnes, or 53% of global output and India. Zimbabwe's teas, primarily orthodox black varieties, face competition from cheaper CTC (crush, tear, curl) teas from Kenya and Malawi.

Export markets like Pakistan, the UK, and South Africa absorbed most volumes, but tariffs and non-tariff barriers (EU pesticide regulations) added friction.

Domestically, high energy costs from power outages and forex shortages inflated production expenses by 20-30%, eroding margins. A particularly constraining policy is the 30% export surrender requirement, where exporters must relinquish 30% of foreign earnings to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) at official rates, often below market value, effectively taxing exports and reducing retained earnings. Introduced to stabilize the local currency and build forex reserves, this 30% threshold applies to agricultural exports like tea, leading to widespread complaints from producers that it disincentivizes international sales.

 Sources, speaking under conditions of anonymity, revealed that the policy has made local sales more beneficial than exports, as retained earnings are eroded by the surrender, compounded by bureaucratic delays in accessing the remaining 70%.

This shift risks undermining Zimbabwe's export ambitions, with some estates pivoting to domestic markets or value-added products to circumvent the penalty, even though local prices are often lower and volumes more limited.

Operating costs present another formidable challenge. Electricity, plagued by chronic outages from Zimbabwe's aging grid and low Kariba Dam levels, forces estates to rely on expensive diesel generators, inflating energy bills by 20%. The 2025 Mid-Term Budget Review highlighted power shortages disrupting industrial activity, with tea processing particularly affected due to its energy-intensive drying and withering stages.

Lack of affordable credit compounds this, as high interest rates, among the region's highest at 20-35% for local currency loans, deter borrowing for irrigation or mechanisation. The taxation system adds further strain, with the 2026 budget introducing hikes in VAT (from 15% to 16% on select goods), withholding taxes on rentals and interest, and broader levies that indirectly raise input costs for fertilisers and labour.

 These measures, aimed at revenue mobilization amid fiscal deficits, are criticized as regressive, potentially suppressing economic activity and increasing operational burdens for tea producers already grappling with inflation and forex shortages.

Policy frameworks like the Agriculture Recovery Plan (2021-2025) aimed for 40,000 tonnes annual production but achieved far less due to funding shortfalls for irrigation and extension services. Land tenure insecurities from post-2000 reforms continue to deter investments, leaving resettled farms underproductive.

Zimbabwe's tea industry is dominated by a few established players, with emerging smallholders adding diversity. Tanganda Tea Company, the largest, controls over 4,000 hectares and accounts for 40-50% of national production. In FY2025 ended September 30, 2025, Tanganda reported revenue of ZWG 511 million (down from ZWG 641.1 million in 2024), swinging to a loss of ZWG 113.1 million from a ZWG 34 million profit, primarily due to drought-impacted yields and currency devaluation. However, Q1 2026 showed recovery, with bulk tea exports up 3% to 1,170 tonnes and packed tea sales surging 37% to 453 tonnes, narrowing losses to US$0.54 million from US$0.85 million.

Tanganda's strategy, focusing on value-added packed teas for domestic and regional markets, has mitigated export volatility, with informal sector demand driving growth.

Ariston Holdings, diversified into tea, macadamia, and poultry, increased tea production 26% to 3,070 tonnes in FY2024 (ended September 30, 2024), with half-year to March 2025 up 14% to 1,830 tonnes despite dry spells.

Ariston's mitigatory measures, including drip irrigation and pest management, paid off, boosting export revenues. Younger players like Rift Valley and Eastern Highlands Plantations are expanding, with smallholders (over 5,000 outgrowers) contributing 30% of output through schemes supported by the Tea Growers Association.

These companies' performances highlight a shift toward diversification and sustainability. Tanganda's US$8 million capital raise in 2026 aims to enhance processing and irrigation, while Ariston's macadamia integration hedges against tea price swings.

The global tea market is booming, valued at US$69.26 billion in 2024 and forecasted to reach US$122.59 billion by 2033, driven by health trends, tea as a low-calorie, antioxidant-rich beverage, and premiumisation (organic, flavored variants). Consumption grows at 4-6% CAGR, with Asia-Pacific dominating (China, India), but Africa (Kenya, Malawi) leads exports. Trends include sustainable sourcing (Rainforest Alliance certification), RTD teas, and climate-resilient varieties.

Looking ahead, Zimbabwe's tea exports could rebound to US$15-20 million in 2026 if rains hold and global prices firm amid projected shortages from Indian droughts. January's US$1.3 million sets a baseline, with Q1 2026 data from Tanganda indicating upward momentum. To sustain growth, investments in irrigation (targeting 50% coverage by 2030), certification for sustainable teas, and value addition (blended products) are crucial. Policy reforms, secure tenure, subsidies for inputs, could unlock smallholder potential, while regional trade under AfCFTA opens African markets.

Therefore, from the 2023 abyss to 2025's moderation, the industry must blend tradition with innovation to thrive in a US$122 billion global arena by 2033. With companies like Tanganda and Ariston leading, and supportive policies, Zimbabwe can steep a stronger future.

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