• Trade deficit narrowed to 404 million, the lowest, driven by a strong second-half surplus that offset the first-half deficit, reflecting surging export earnings amid improved domestic production
  • Exports reached USD 9.71 billion, up sharply from USD 6.06 billion, with semi-manufactures dominating at 47%, followed by nickel mattes at 15% and Virginia flue-cured tobacco at 13%
  • Imports climbed to USD 10 bn, led by energy products and food/agricultural inputs (maize, soya, fertilizers) showing the urgent need for local energy generation, fertilizer production, and import substitution

 

                   

 

Harare- Zimbabwe has achieved a significant milestone in its external trade performance in 2025, with the annual trade deficit contracting to just USD 404 million, the lowest in the past five years and a dramatic improvement from the average deficits exceeding USD 1.6 billion annually between 2021 and 2024.

This narrowing, representing a substantial reduction from the USD 1.79 billion gap in 2024, shows the strengthening of export earnings, particularly from mining and agriculture, and reflects progress toward greater trade equilibrium despite persistent structural challenges.

Total exports reached USD 9.71 billion in 2025, continuing a consistent upward trajectory from USD 6.06 billion in 2021. Imports climbed to USD 10.11 billion over the same period, from USD 7.37 billion in 2021, driven by a 37% increase in the import bill over five years.

“The sharper rise in exports, supported by higher production and favourable commodity prices, enabled the deficit to shrink markedly, signalling improved external resilience,” Buy Zimbabwe said in their 2025’s Export and Import trade analysis report.

The year's performance showed a clear seasonal pattern. The first half from January to June remained in persistent deficit, accumulating USD 824 million. Monthly gaps ranged from USD 76 million in January (exports USD 653 million, imports USD 729 million) to a peak of USD 210 million in March, with deficits persisting through June between USD 96 million and USD 123 million.

This early imbalance highlighted strong demand for imported fuel, food staples, and production inputs.

The second half marked a decisive turnaround. July posted the first surplus of USD 24 million (exports USD 878 million, imports USD 853 million), followed by USD 41 million in August. After a minor deficit of USD 6 million in September, surpluses strengthened in October (USD 29 million), November (USD 90 million), and December (USD 245 million), with December exports hitting USD 1.21 billion against imports of USD 963 million.

The second-half surplus of approximately USD 423 million more than offset the earlier shortfall, ending the year with robust momentum.

Exports are dominated by a narrow set of commodities, with mining leading the way. Gold in unwrought or semi-manufactured forms emerged as the top performer at USD 4.64 billion, reflecting record production of 46.7 tonnes in 2025.

 Nickel mattes contributed USD 1.41 billion, while other key mining exports included mineral substances (USD 414 million), ferro-alloys (USD 370 million), coke and semi-coke (USD 180 million), chromium ores (USD 166 million), other ores (USD 161 million), diamonds (USD 135 million), nickel ores (USD 118 million), and platinum (USD 51 million).

Agricultural exports were anchored by unmanufactured tobacco at USD 1.33 billion, with smaller contributions from manufactured tobacco products, sugar, hides and skins, fruits, tea, maize, cotton, and citrus.

Semi-manufactures, including significant gold processing, accounted for around 47% of total exports, followed by nickel mattes at 15% and Virginia flue-cured tobacco at 13% together nearly three-quarters of receipts.

In the final quarter (October to December), semi-manufactures led at 18.6%, Virginia flue-cured tobacco at 15.2%, and nickel mattes at 3.8%, with these three items comprising 37.6% of quarterly exports.

Additional diversity came from mineral substances, ferro-chromium, chromium ores, coke, and others, though modest shares highlighted limited broader diversification.

The export profile shows progress in value addition, with semi-manufactured forms surging from USD 1.61 billion in 2021 to USD 4.61 billion in 2025. Nickel mattes and tobacco also grew steadily, offsetting declines in raw nickel ores (from over USD 1 billion in 2021 to USD 118 million in 2025). This shift demonstrates the potential of moving up the value chain.

Imports remain concentrated in vulnerable categories.

Energy products dominated, with diesel rising sharply to over USD 1.17 billion in 2025 from negligible levels in 2021, unleaded petrol to USD 520 million, and other fuels like LPG and electrical energy adding to the burden.

Food staples included maize (fluctuating but high at USD 443 million in 2025), crude soya bean oil, wheat, and soya beans. Fertilizers and machinery, such as excavators, also featured prominently. The import surge, particularly in fuel and food, shows exposure to global price shocks and gaps in domestic production.

The narrowed deficit in 2025, driven by gold, nickel, tobacco, and improved agricultural output that eased some grain imports, offers cautious optimism.

However, the narrow export base and heavy reliance on energy and agro-input imports leave the economy susceptible to volatility. Accelerating downstream processing in mining and agriculture, boosting local energy generation, expanding fertilizer production, and pursuing import substitution remain essential for sustaining gains, enhancing resilience, and achieving more balanced, transformative growth into 2026.

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