• Zimbabwe’s tobacco exports surged to 28.99 million kg worth US$232.7 million by mid-January 2026, more than double the same period in 2025
• The surge follows a 42% increase in tobacco cultivation, with over 162,000 hectares planted by early January 2026
• Despite high export volumes, most tobacco leaves the country as raw or semi-processed leaf, limiting domestic value capture and job creation

Harare - Zimbabwe’s sharp surge in tobacco exports at the start of 2026 the latest chapter in a four-decade arc of expansion, collapse, and recovery that now appears to be approaching another historic peak, with industry indicators pointing to yet another record high in the 2026 marketing season.

As at 16 January 2026, Zimbabwe had exported 28.99 million kilogrammes of tobacco worth US$232.7 million, more than double the 11.60 million kilogrammes valued at US$82.7 million recorded over the same period in 2025 according to Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board (TIMB).

The  Zimbabwe Economic Reviews attributed this surge to strong global demand and the market's capacity to absorb higher volumes.

This performance follows a massive increase in tobacco hectarage, which rose to over 162,000 hectares by early January, a 42% increase from the previous season.

January is traditionally a low-volume export month, making the pace and value of shipments an unusually strong signal of what lies ahead in the peak marketing window between March and May.

The surge also rides on the record-breaking 2025 tobacco marketing season, when Zimbabwe delivered  352.7 million kilogrammes, generating projected export earnings of US$1.2 billion .

That milestone followed steady revenue growth over recent years, from US$0.8 billion in 2021, US$0.9 billion in 2022, US$1.2 billion in 2023, to US$1.3 billion in 2024.

Merchants entered 2026 carrying larger inventories, stronger balance sheets, and expanded contract farming networks, enabling faster off-take and earlier export execution than in previous seasons.

Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry has long been central to its agricultural and export identity. In the 1980s, large-scale white commercial farmers  controlling nearly half of the country’s arable land under colonial-era arrangements  drove production from 125 million kilogrammes in 1980 to 130 million by 1989.

The Lancaster House Agreement preserved these structures, allowing output to climb to a peak of 260 million kilogrammes in 1998, cementing Zimbabwe’s status as Africa’s leading exporter of high-quality flue-cured Virginia tobacco.

That trajectory was violently disrupted by the Fast Track Land Reform Programme launched in 2000. While the reform sought to correct deep land inequities, it fractured established production systems.

Tobacco output collapsed from 228 million kilogrammes in 2000 to just 48 million kilogrammes by 2008, as new farmers struggled with limited experience, access to credit, and broken supply chains.

By 2013, the sector had been fundamentally restructured ,110,000 small-scale farmers were producing 65% of the crop, replacing roughly 1,500 large-scale farmers who had dominated production a decade earlier.

Recovery began in earnest from 2005, driven by the expansion of contract farming, led by multinational buyers such as British American Tobacco and China Tobacco. These arrangements provided inputs, financing, and guaranteed markets, restoring confidence and production capacity.

By 2016, roughly 80% of Zimbabwe’s tobacco was contract-grown, with output rebounding to 258 million kilogrammes by 2018. Contract farming now underpins the sector’s scale, it accounted for 86% of production in 2018 and has boosted productivity by an estimated 39%, directly contributing to the 2025 production milestone.

However , the model remains deeply contested ,high input costs, opaque pricing, and labour intensity have left many small-scale farmers trapped in debt cycles, particularly under some Chinese contracts.

Zimbabwe’s tobacco strength is reinforced by its global positioning. While China dominates global production  producing 2.19 million metric tonnes in 2022, followed by India (0.8 million) and Brazil (0.7 million)  Zimbabwe remains Africa’s  leader.

In 2022, Zimbabwe produced 162,000 metric tonnes, ahead of Malawi (105,000) and Mozambique (93,000). Its focus on high-quality Virginia tobacco, rather than bulk burley varieties, gives it a premium niche in global cigarette manufacturing.

China remains the single largest buyer, having accounted for 54% of Zimbabwe’s tobacco exports in 2015, with other markets including the European Union, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and Hong Kong. While Chinese demand has powered the sector’s recovery, reliance on a single dominant buyer exposes Zimbabwe to price and demand shocks.

With export volumes already surging in January, attention is now firmly on May, traditionally the peak of the marketing season. If current price and demand conditions persist, Zimbabwe could match or exceed 2025’s record earnings, reinforcing tobacco’s role as the country’s agricultural top foreign-currency earner.

However, the scale of success has sharpened policy questions ,Zimbabwe risks repeating an old pattern, world-class production volumes with limited domestic value capture. Most tobacco still leaves the country as raw or semi-processed leaf, exporting jobs and margins offshore.

To convert record harvests into lasting development gains, Zimbabwe must confront structural weaknesses in contract farming and invest in farmer cooperatives capable of negotiating fairer terms. Strengthening cooperatives, supported by government training and financing frameworks, could rebalance power between small-scale growers and multinational buyers, while stabilising livelihoods.

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