• Zimbabwe’s approved investment value collapsed 74% to US$1.18 billion in Q4 2025
• Mining and manufacturing dominated approvals, accounting for 39% and 30% of projected capital respectively
• Actual investment realisation remains critically low, with only 31% of monitored projects materialising and foreign financing underperforming

Harare - Zimbabwe recorded  a 74% year-on-year collapse in approved investment value to US$1.18 billion in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 from US$4.59 billion in the comparative period according to the latest Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency (ZIDA) quarterly report.

The contraction occurred despite  issuing 235 new investment licences between October and December 2025, representing a 17.5% increase year-on-year.

‘’ While proposed investment values declined to US$1.18 billion compared to US$4.59 billion in Q4 2024, this largely reflected the absence of large capital-intensive projects that characterised the previous period, ’’ZIDA said.

The divergence between rising licence approvals and collapsing capital values highlights a critical shift in Zimbabwe’s investment landscape, engagement is increasing, but scale is shrinking.

The Q4 outcome reflects the absence of large, capital-intensive projects that boosted investment figures in late 2024. In their place, 2025 saw a proliferation of smaller, medium-sized ventures, suggesting that investors are recalibrating risk exposure rather than exiting the market altogether.

A prime example is Caledonia Mining’s approach to the Bilboes Gold Project; despite a volatile fiscal environment in Zimbabwe, investors didn't flee. Instead, they recalibrated, successfully oversubscribing to a $125 million convertible note offering on 15 January 2026.

This shift mirrors broader global dynamics. Throughout Q4 2025, policy interest rates in major economies remained at restrictive, multi-year highs with the US Federal Funds Rate held at a target range of circa 3.5% to 4%.

While there is a pivot toward easing in early 2026, the financing costs across global markets remain materially tighter than pre-2022 levels. This environment reduced the appetite for long-dated, high-capex investments, particularly in frontier and high-risk jurisdictions, leading investors to favour the recalibrated risk profile of mid-sized ventures over massive capital outlays

For Zimbabwe, where currency volatility, policy inconsistency and constrained access to offshore finance remain structural concerns, investors are increasingly favouring capital-light projects with faster execution timelines and lower balance-sheet risk.

As a result, the licensing system remains active, but the value of capital being committed upfront has thinned materially.

Sectoral data shows that mining continued to dominate approved investment value, accounting for approximately US$461.8 million, or about 39% of total projected capital, despite representing fewer licences than other sectors.

Manufacturing trailed  with US$349.4 million, reinforcing Zimbabwe’s reliance on capital-intensive and extractive industries.

By contrast, sectors critical to long-term productivity and economic diversification  including ICT, transport and health  attracted relatively minimal investment. The imbalance highlights the economy’s continued dependence on resource-driven growth and highlights the difficulty of drawing meaningful capital into higher-value, technology-driven activities.

While mining and manufacturing provide export earnings and scale, their dominance also increases vulnerability to commodity price cycles, financing delays and external shocks.

The more concerning signal lies in investment realisation , between January 2022 and December 2025, Zimbabwe licensed nearly US$40 billion in proposed investment projects. Yet actual inflows from monitored projects amounted to just US$1.55 billion.

This translates to a 31% realisation rate for monitored projects and only about 4% of total licensed projections, underscoring deep-rooted challenges in converting intent into execution.

Debt and equity financing remain particularly weak. Foreign exchange loan inflows achieved just 18% of projected levels, while equity injections reached 28%. Capital equipment imports performed better, with a 56% realisation rate, suggesting investors are more willing to commit machinery than deploy cash.

The pattern points to persistent bottlenecks including financing closures, regulatory delays, macroeconomic uncertainty and weak project preparation that continue to undermine investment delivery.

Geographically, investment approvals and inflows remain highly concentrated. Harare accounted for roughly 44% of licences issued during the quarter, while the Midlands absorbed a disproportionate share of approved capital value. Other provinces, including Manicaland, Bulawayo and Matabeleland South, attracted limited investment, reinforcing long-standing regional disparities.

Without targeted infrastructure development, provincial de-risking instruments and decentralised investment incentives, capital is likely to remain clustered around established economic corridors.

These statistics taken together  do not suggest collapsing investor interest. Instead, they point to a market undergoing capital discipline one in which investors remain engaged but are increasingly selective, cautious and constrained in how much they are willing to commit.

Licence issuance is no longer a sufficient proxy for investment success. The challenge has shifted decisively toward conversion translating approvals into financed, bankable and implementable projects.

Looking ahead, Zimbabwe must prioritise converting investment approvals into tangible projects if it is to unlock sustainable economic growth. This requires strengthening financing mechanisms, including risk-sharing facilities and credit guarantees, to make capital-intensive and medium-sized ventures more bankable.

The country must also diversify its investment base beyond mining and manufacturing, targeting high-value sectors such as ICT, healthcare, and transport, while addressing regional disparities through provincial infrastructure upgrades and targeted incentives.

Zimbabwe, investment, capital collapse, ZIDA, mining, manufacturing, foreign investment, project realisation, economic diversification, risk recalibration, provincial disparities, capital-intensive, medium-sized ventures, financing bottlenecks, Q4 2025