• In 11 months, cumulative export earnings exceeded $4 billion, a target initially missed in 2023 with FY earnings edging 4.5 billion
• ASSM (76% share) will pay $61.8 mn (1-2% royalty) on $3.09 billion earnings share through November, or $68.4 million at $4.5 billion FY
• LSM (24% share) will pay $48.8 mn on $0.976 bn, or ~$54 mn in (FY), then ~25% corporate tax, AIDS Levy, CSR, 30% forex surrender resulting in significantly reduced net proceeds
• Zambia's mining ecosystem offers sliding-scale mineral royalties, duty-free imports on capital equipment, 100% capital allowances, 0% withholding tax on dividends, extended loss carry-forwards, and stable incentives that reduce fiscal drag

Sources: Zimstat, Equity Axis

Harare- Zimbabwe has achieved a significant milestone in its extractive sector by surpassing the long-elusive US$4 billion threshold in gold export revenues, a target originally earmarked for 2023 but deferred due to a confluence of domestic impediments such as operational inefficiencies and currency volatility and exogenous shocks, including global commodity market fluctuations and supply chain disruptions.

By November 2025, bolstered by unprecedented spot prices in the international gold market, enhanced remittance mechanisms from Fidelity Gold Printers and Refiners (FPR), and augmented functionality of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency, the nation's gold exports aggregated US$4.066 billion.

This marginal overrun of the aspirational benchmark, with an additional month of trading activity remaining, positions the sector for potential escalation to between US$4.4 billion and US$4.5 billion by year-end, capitalizing on elevated average gold prices in December 2025 and amplified deliveries to FPR amid a bullish commodity supercycle.

Fidelity Printers and Refiners, as Zimbabwe's monopsonistic gold purchaser, has aligned its procurement pricing with near-parity to London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) benchmarks, a stark departure from the payment arrears and liquidity constraints that plagued the industry nearly a decade prior, exemplified by RioZim's operational hiatus due to delayed settlements in 2019.

Over the 11-month period ending November 2025, Zimbabwe's aggregate merchandise exports tallied US$8.565 billion, with gold constituting a dominant 47.5% share at US$4.066 billion. In November alone, gold shipments yielded US$443.306 million, accounting for 42.4% of that month's total exports, albeit registering a sequential decline from October's US$479.5 million yet substantially exceeding the year-to-date monthly average of US$369.81 million.

This performance markedly outpaced the prior-year comparator of US$359.3 million for November 2024 and represented nearly a quarter of the full-year 2024 gold export figure of US$2.5 billion, reflecting a robust year-over-year growth trajectory driven by favourable terms of trade.

The cumulative gold export revenues for 2025 have eclipsed the combined totals for 2023 and 2022, while also surpassing the aggregate for 2021 and 2022, reflecting structural enhancements in production capacity and export facilitation.

November's output ranked as the fourth-highest monthly haul of the year, underpinned by record deliveries of 4.25 tonnes to FPR, marginally trailing December's 4.94 tonnes. In aggregate, the US$4.066 billion was facilitated by 41.2 tonnes of gold deliveries over 11 months, with artisanal and small-scale miners (ASSM) commanding a 77.6% market share and large-scale miners (LSM) comprising the residual 22.4%.

This surge in foreign exchange inflows has exceeded US$8 billion, engendering a 5% appreciation in the ZiG currency attributable to heightened U.S. dollar liquidity from export proceeds, thereby mitigating balance-of-payments pressures and bolstering monetary stability.

With a monthly average of US$369.71 million in gold exports and consistent breaches of the US$400 million mark since July 2025, Zimbabwe is poised to exceed US$4.5 billion in annual gold revenues by the close of the 2025 fiscal calendar, amid sustained upward momentum in gold futures and spot prices.

For macroeconomic context, the 2025 annual average gold price settled at approximately US$3,446.19 per ounce, marking a 65% year-over-year escalation, with acceleration intensifying in the latter half, including a "thundering surge" in December as characterised by the World Gold Council.

December's rally propelled intraday highs above US$4,400–US$4,500 per ounce, elevating the monthly average to the US$4,300–US$4,500 range, surpassing the annual mean and amplifying Zimbabwe's terms-of-trade gains, thereby positioning the economy for enhanced export-led growth.

At the prevailing US$4.066 billion in gold export earnings through November, ASSM, contributing 76% of deliveries incur a 2% royalty obligation to the fiscus, translating to approximately US$61.8 million on their US$3.090 billion share.

Conversely, LSM, subject to a 5% royalty rate, remit US$48.8 million on their US$0.976 billion allocation.

Projecting forward to a US$4.5 billion year-end total, ASSM's imputed earnings would approximate US$3.42 billion, yielding US$68.4 million in royalties and net proceeds of US$3.352 billion post-levy. LSM's corresponding share of US$1.08 billion would generate US$54 million in royalties, netting US$1.026 billion.

However, LSM face asymmetric fiscal burdens beyond royalties, including a corporate income tax rate of circa 24.72% on taxable profits, AIDS Levy surcharges, corporate social responsibility (CSR) outlays, mandatory 30% foreign exchange surrender at a 30% overvalued local currency peg, and ancillary imposts tied to downstream beneficiation and employment generation.

ASSM, by contrast, encounter minimal post-royalty encumbrances, exacerbating sectoral inequities in effective tax rates and operational viability.

Gold prices ascended beyond US$4,630 per ounce on January 14, 2026, establishing a new nominal high amid escalating expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate reductions and heightened safe-haven demand spurred by Middle East geopolitical frictions.

Zimbabwe has enacted a uniform 10% gold royalty surcharge applicable across ASSM and LSM whenever prices breach US$5,000 per ounce, with implementation anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, catalyzed by intensified regional instability and U.S. protectionist trade policies that perpetuate commodity inflation.

Prominent research institutions, including Bank of America (forecasting an average of US$4,538 per ounce in 2026 with peaks at US$5,000) and the World Gold Council (projecting 15%–30% upside potential under adverse macroeconomic scenarios, implying breaches of US$5,000 from current levels), corroborate expectations of sustained price elevation.

While this augments miners' nominal revenues, it amplifies fiscal pressures on LSM, already contending with multifaceted levies encompassing departmental taxes, employment-related costs, National Social Security Authority (NSSA) contributions, and sustainable mining mandates, potentially eroding after-tax returns and deterring foreign direct investment.

To foster parity between ASSM and LSM, recalibrating the royalty framework with targeted incentives such as accelerated depreciation allowances or tax credits for capital-intensive reinvestments could alleviate LSM's disproportionate burden, enhancing overall sector productivity.

Notwithstanding these challenges, augmented royalties bolster government revenues, facilitating fiscal consolidation; however, mitigating LSM encumbrances would catalyze reinvestment in capital expenditures (capex), expediting flagship projects like Caledonia Mining's Bilboes initiative, Padenga Holdings' nascent operations, and Kuvimba Mining House's gold portfolio, thereby elevating Zimbabwe's aggregate gold output and export competitiveness.

Sector-wide headwinds persist, including inflated electricity tariffs that absorbed 20% of revenues between 2022 and 2024, partially offset by solar photovoltaic deployments yet insufficient for comprehensive production optimization, Caledonia, for instance, grapples with imported power quality deficiencies rather than supply shortages.

The 30% export retention surrender remains a pivotal barrier to sectoral expansion, imposing a de facto 30% haircut on forex receipts due to the overvalued ZiG exchange rate, despite disbursements within a two-week window. A reduction to 5% could liberate liquidity, enabling miners to procure local currency via interbank markets for tax settlements while allowing the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to accumulate reserves based on organic ZiG demand.

Prioritizing currency fundamentals such as inflation targeting and reserve accumulation over artificial scarcity would expedite the envisaged full ZiG transition by 2030, fostering monetary credibility.

By way of comparative benchmark, Zambia's mining ecosystem exemplifies a more conducive operational milieu for large-scale extractive industries. While gold production remains modest (approximately 3 tonnes annually as a copper by-product), the sector is anchored by dominant copper revenues generated by three principal operators: First Quantum Minerals (via Kansanshi and Sentinel mines, with 2025 full-year guidance of 360,000–420,000 tonnes combined, bolstered by the Kansanshi S3 expansion commissioning in mid-2025 and targeting higher throughput and recoveries in the second half); Barrick Gold (Lumwana mine, maintaining strong performance against 2025 guidance amid the ongoing $2 billion Super Pit expansion project, which aims to double annual output to 240,000 tonnes by the late 2020s); and Vedanta Resources (Konkola Copper Mines, revived under a new US-domiciled subsidiary CopperTech Metals with an additional $1.5 billion investment on top of prior $3 billion commitments, targeting ramp-up from around 140,000 tonnes in FY2026 toward 300,000 tonnes by 2031 and potentially 500,000 tonnes longer-term).

These entities collectively support Zambia's copper output trajectory toward approximately 1 million tonnes in 2025 (up from ~820,000 tonnes in 2024), with ambitious government targets for 3 million tonnes by the early 2030s amid over $10 billion in sector investments.

Revenues from these major copper firms significantly outpace those of Zimbabwe's largest miners, such as Zimplats. This disparity is amplified by copper's price rally (surging nearly 50% through 2025 into early 2026, breaching $13,000 per tonne in January 2026) and Zambia's investor-friendly incentives encompassing duty-free imports on capital equipment, 100% capital allowances for qualifying expenditures, 0% withholding tax on dividends for mining license holders, extended loss carry-forwards, and a sliding-scale mineral royalty for copper (tiered 5.5%–10% based on norm price thresholds).

These measures attenuate fiscal drag relative to peers, facilitating reinvestment in capex, output growth, and sustainable development, offering a model Zimbabwe could emulate to optimize its gold sector's contribution to gross domestic product and foreign reserves.

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