- Zimbabwe recorded its first trade surplus since July 2019 in August 2025, reaching $7 million, driven by a 0.3% export increase and a 1.7% import decline
- The surplus was fueled by gold ($462.7 million), tobacco ($70 million), and a maize import ban
- Foreign currency inflows rose to $10.4 billion and a $1.3 billion balance of payments surplus in 2025 with projected annual trade deficits of $2 billion
Harare- Zimbabwe has achieved a trade surplus of $7 million in August 2025, its first since July 2019, reversing July 2025’s $10.2 million deficit. Exports increased 0.3% to $878.2 million from $876 million, while imports declined 1.7% to $871.1 million from $886.2 million.
Gold exports led the exports at $462.7 million (52.7% of total exports), followed by nickel mattes ($122.2 million), tobacco ($70 million), and ferrochrome ($44 million).
Import changes included diesel rising to $108 million from $98 million, petrol to $43 million from $42 million, and crude soybean oil falling to $17 million from $22 million.
Maize imports, averaging $55 million over the prior 12 months, dropped to $1 million due to a government ban. This surplus is delicate. The maize import ban, while reducing costs, obscures ongoing food security issues, with deficits likely to return upon lifting the ban.
Foreign currency inflows reached $10.4 billion by August 2025, up from $8.2 billion in 2024, driven by tobacco auctions ($1.1 billion from 352.7 million kg at $3.12/kg, up 52% from 232 million kg in 2024) and mining exports.
This shifted the balance of payments from a $501 million deficit in 2024 to a $1.3 billion surplus in 2025, increasing reserves to $900 million by September from $700 million in June.
However, annual trade deficits are projected at $2 billion without diversification, given reliance on volatile commodities (80% of exports) and weather patterns. In the 8 months to August 2025, deficit is at 980 million.
The surplus, primarily from import contraction rather than export growth, mirrors July 2019’s $60 million surplus, when exports rose to $299.5 million from $239.8 million and imports fell to $239.5 million from $458.6 million, led by gold, nickel, and ferrochrome.
Historically, Zimbabwe’s trade has been volatile. The 1980s and 1990s saw annual surpluses of $150–250 million, with exports growing 4.5% yearly, driven by tobacco (25%), gold (20%), and minerals.
Smallholder output rose from 10% to 50% post-independence, and GDP per capita grew 11.5%, aided by SADC and EU market access. Droughts in 1992–95 slowed growth to 2.6%, and fiscal pressures from war veteran payouts and the Congo War eroded surpluses by 2000.
The 2000–2003 land reforms cut agricultural output by 51% and tobacco by 79%, making Zimbabwe import-dependent.
Hyperinflation reached 89.7 sextillion percent in 2008, with exports stagnating at $2 billion and imports rising to $2.8 billion, causing deficits of $800 million–$1.5 billion and a -5% GDP contraction from 2000–2008.
Dollarisation in 2009 stabilised prices but not trade, with monthly deficits of $200–500 million amid 80% unemployment and 3 million skilled emigrants.
Deficits grew from $150 million in 2019 to $2 billion by 2023 due to COVID-19 and currency volatility, despite $6.6 billion in mineral-heavy exports.
The 2024 drought widened monthly deficits to $274.9 million.
Analytical Insights: August 2025’s surplus reflects agricultural recovery, mining strength, and import controls, bolstered by $10.4 billion in inflows. Yet, its reliance on commodities (80% of exports) and a maize import ban highlights fragility, exacerbated by $13 billion in arrears, including $1.2 billion to exporters and contractors which is providing the ZiG’s artificial strength.
Historical patterns from 1980s surpluses, 2000s collapse, and brief 2019 gains reflect structural risks. Projected $2 billion annual deficits emphasize the need for diversification, irrigation, and debt restructuring to capitalize on AfCFTA and energy investments.
Without reforms, this milestone may repeat past short-lived recoveries.
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