• Zimbabwe's trade balance flipped to a US$30.8 million deficit in September 2025 driven by a 23% slump in gold exports and a 2,340% surge in maize imports
  • Tobacco exports rose 76.6% but failed to offset mineral losses, while food and energy imports (soyabean oil +30.9%, wheat +70%, electricity +88.9) further eroded gains
  • Export concentration remains extreme- UAE took 49.8% of earnings, top five destinations 90%, with gold (49%), tobacco (14.8%), and nickel mattes (12.5%) dominating highlighting vulnerability to commodity shocks and import dependency

Harare- Zimbabwe’s trade balance slipped back into deficit in September 2025, recording a shortfall of US$30.8 million after a modest surplus of US$6.9 million in August, a 548.8% swing from black to red.

This is according to the latest trade data from Zimstat for September 2025.

Total exports edged down to US$850.5 million (-3.1%), while imports rose marginally to US$881.3 million (+1.2%). The reversal stemmed primarily from a sharp contraction in gold exports, which fell from US$457.2 million in August to US$352.3 million in September (-23.0%), shrinking gold’s share of total exports from over 52% to approximately 49%.

A bright spot emerged in tobacco, where exports surged from US$70.99 million to US$125.37 million (+76.6%), yet this gain proved insufficient to offset the mineral shortfall. Nickel mattes also weakened, declining from US$122 million to US$106 million (-13.1%), while silver recorded its inaugural export of US$64 million.

The deficit deepened coincident with the government’s decision to lift the maize import ban, transforming an earlier fictitious surplus into a more structural imbalance. Maize imports leapt from US$1 million in August to US$24.4 million in September (+2,340%), reflecting Zimbabwe’s fragile agriculture.

Other food-related inflows accelerated as well: soyabean oil rose from US$17.5 million to US$22.9 million (+30.9%), wheat from US$10 million to US$17 million (+70.0%), and electricity from US$9 million to US$17 million (+88.9%).

Energy imports showed mixed signals as diesel narrowed from US$108.5 million to US$104.6 million (-3.6%) but leaded petrol inched up from US$433 million to US$434 million (+0.2%).

These movements collectively highlight how agricultural and energy dependencies are eroding hard-won export gains, pulling the trade account into negative territory despite pockets of commodity strength.

Within the export basket, concentration remained pronounced. Semi-manufactured gold retained dominance at 49% of September’s total, followed by tobacco at 14.8% and nickel mattes at 12.5%.

Regional breakdowns reveal similar patterns of reliance. Exports to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), valued at US$211.3 million, were led by nickel mattes (50.2%), chromium ores and concentrates (8.4%), tobacco partly or wholly stemmed (7.1%), and semi-manufactured gold (5.4%), together comprising 71.1%.

Shipments to the European Union, totalling US$36.1 million, were even more skewed: tobacco partly or wholly stemmed/stripped (76.7%), ferrochromium (21.0%), and granite (1.1%), accounting for roughly 99%. Under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), worth US$217.1 million, nickel mattes again topped the list at 48.9%, trailed by tobacco (9.2%), chromium ores (8.2%), and semi-manufactured gold (5.3%), jointly 72%.

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) received US$20.6 million, with tobacco (23.5%), cigarettes containing tobacco (18.3%), and coke/semi-coke of coal (11.2%) forming the core.

Geographically, the United Arab Emirates absorbed 49.8% of all export earnings, followed by South Africa (18.2%), China (15.1%), Mozambique (4.2%), and Belgium (2.6%), the top five capturing roughly 90% of the US$850.5 million total.

On the import side, mineral fuels led at 22.6% of the top ten, followed by machinery and mechanical appliances (13.8%) and vehicles (8.0%). SADC supplied US$433.8 million in goods, with mineral fuels (11.4%), machinery (10.7%), cereals (9.9%), and animal/vegetable fats and oils (5.7%) contributing 38%.

The EU contributed US$28.6 million, dominated by machinery (46.4%), pharmaceutical products (9.1%), and electrical machinery (9.1%). AfCFTA imports reached US$441.2 million, where mineral fuels (11.2%), machinery (10.7%), cereals (9.7%), and iron and steel articles (6.5%) made up 38%. COMESA delivered US$59.3 million, led by cereals (22.4%), salt/sulphur/earths/stone (16.5%), machinery (5.7%), and miscellaneous chemicals (4.5%).

South Africa remained the pre-eminent supplier with a 35.6% share, followed by China (14.4%), Bahamas (8.7%), and Bahrain (6.9%), the quartet commanding nearly 66% of total imports. Mozambique (6.1%), UAE (3.6%), and Zambia (2.7%) rounded out notable partners.

Thus, September’s data paint a portrait of an economy tethered to a narrow band of primary commodities, gold, nickel, tobacco, and chromium while food and energy insecurities drive import bills ever higher.

The abrupt pivot from surplus to deficit, amplified by the maize ban reversal, signals that short-term policy relief can quickly unravel broader trade stability. Until agricultural self-sufficiency improves and export diversification takes root, Zimbabwe’s balance of payments will remain precariously exposed to both global price swings and domestic harvest shortfalls.

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