• Zimbabwe  projected a GDP growth of 6% in 2025, the Southern Africa region’s fastest and a record high
• Overestimating agricultural output, particularly maize, leads to inaccurate GDP growth projections, which can affect policy planning and national forecasts
• A maize deficit by October 2025 would require imports, stressing the economy due to high regional prices and government import restrictions

Harare- Zimbabwe had projected a GDP growth of 6% in 2025, the Southern Africa region’s fastest and a record high in recent years. The growth was largely premised on a rebound in Agriculture anchored on maize crop output against good rains.

The Treasury estimated that a total of 3.92 million metric tonnes in total crop will be achieved and of this, 2.3 million metric tonnes would be maize. This would give a maize contribution to total output of 59% and a likely maize value contribution to total agriculture  output of over 40%.

Just only 4 months into the harvest and 2 months after the ban on importation of maize was announced in order to absorb local supply, the market is showing signs of low supply levels. According to the grain millers association (GMAZ), most millers are fast running out of reserves and therefore low stocks.

The dynamics are quite nuanced but clearly reflect on an underlying challenge and possible wrong estimation by government. This would also unravel faulty overall GDP growth estimates and a sector which has failed to move beyond command agriculture support and moving in line with competitive practices.

Zimbabwe requires an estimate of 2.2 million metric tonnes of maize per annum which meant the presumed targeted of 2.3 million metric tonnes output would have been sufficient to carry through the country into the next marketing season starting between April and May 2026.

If stocks millers are holding run out by end of October 2025, this would mean that the imports would be required for the remaining 6 months till the beginning of the marketing season next year.

Given the background that import licenses for maize importation were revoked first in June it would follow that the effective local supply has filtered into the market only for a few months now without external supplies to support demand levels and yet there are already concerns over supply.

Some dynamics to consider as we delve into this analysis includes that local farmers have concerns over prices. While Zimbabwe has remained with the highest regional prices in terms of maize at around US$350 per tonne, farmers feel the prices are suboptimal and not reflective of costs, some of which are economic environment specific. Against this, farmers would hope that government will be forced to revise its buying price up as supply tightens.

This view will only suffice if government does not lift the ban on maize imports, a possibility which is highly unlikely, given past precedence. This dichotomy therefore considers that some farmers are holding on to some of their yield, first in consideration of price viability and secondly ahead of a forecast determination on the crop’s outlook for the season ahead.

On this assumption some produce may strategically be held by farmers. It is the extend of the produce that need to be ascertained although it is concerning that these retentions are being called for so early into the year. The gap to the next harvest is glaringly huge and the country could potentially be looking at a 6 months gap that about 1 million metric tonnes deficit.

Effectively this halves the projection by government to about 1.4 million tonnes in actual production for the 2024/25 season. If millers come out at the end of October to strongly advocate for imports, it would mean the markets are nearly effectively dry and those holding retention stocks would have made up their position considering that the rainy season or its outcome projection will have largely been concluded. If the forthcoming season exhibits a fair to good season, the cost of holding on to prior year produce will become higher even increasing the cost of the produce and its future profitability.

So, all else being equal, we would expect farmers to either unwind their positions earlier if government changes its position on import licences or unwind a bit later around year end at the peak of the lean period only if the current ban is upheld. Our expectation of earlier unwinding is premised on forecasts that the upcoming season is going to be affected by a weak La Niña although the expected final out will be within stable range.

The implications

Government agencies have an obligation to report factual data. This improves confidence in government in general. Stated GDP numbers are computed from various sector projections and wider variances especially in the adverse direction leads to a grossly distorted GDP growth estimate. Further, deliberate overestimation of projections leads to planning challenges where government may fail to intervene in the case of a possible drought.

In light of the recent rebasing of the economy it is important for authorities to keep citizens in confidence of processes through transparency. The Zimbabwe economy has suddenly jumped almost twice fold in under 5 years and while this is not growth in absolute terms the change in methodology which it is attributed to need to be fully appreciated by citizens and users of data.

At this point users of government data and information need to do so with a degree of caution to reduce chances of gross miscalculation or estimations in own organisation’s strategic endeavours.

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