- Global platinum market set for an 850,000 oz deficit in 2025, the third consecutive year of shortages, following a 968,000 oz shortfall in 2024
- Industrial demand plunges 22%, led by a 74% collapse in glass demand, while jewellery demand surges 11% as high gold prices drive consumers toward platinum
- Above-ground stocks expected to shrink to 2.98 million oz, covering just 4.5 months of demand, highlighting structural supply tightness despite higher recycling flows
Harare - The global platinum market is once again plunging into deficit, with the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projecting an 850,000-ounce shortfall in 2025, following an even deeper 968,000-ounce gap in 2024.
This looming crunch marks the third consecutive year of supply shortages, underscoring a structural squeeze that is rapidly reshaping one of the world’s most strategic metals.
On the supply side, global mine output is forecast to fall 6% year-on-year to 5.43 million ounces, driven mainly by persistent challenges in South Africa, the world’s largest producer.
Producers will not be able to repeat the extraordinary drawdowns of semi-finished inventory that bolstered supply in 2024.
Zimbabwe, despite record output in 2024, is set to contract by 4% in 2025 due to electricity shortages and the absence of stock drawdowns while North America faces a steeper contraction of 26%, marking its lowest output in three decades.
Recycling, however, offers a modest cushion with secondary supply expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, supported by stronger auto catalyst recovery and higher jewellery sellbacks following the sharp rise in platinum prices earlier this year.
Total platinum demand is projected to decline by 4% in 2025 to 7.88 million ounces. The industrial sector is the heaviest drag, with demand falling 22% year-on-year as glass fabrication slumps 74%, following years of large-scale capacity additions in China and closures in Japan.
Chemical demand will also weaken by 8%, as petrochemical expansions slow under global economic strain.
Automotive demand remains under pressure from tariffs and the ongoing electrification of vehicles. WPIC forecasts a 3% decline in automotive platinum consumption to 3.03 million ounces in 2025.
On the upside, jewellery demand is booming. Rising gold prices, which reached record highs of US$3600 earlier this month (September 2025,), have driven consumers , particularly in China to switch to platinum as a cheaper luxury alternative.
Platinum jewellery demand is expected to rise 11% year-on-year to 2.23 million ounces, the highest since 2018.
In China alone, fabrication surged more than two-fold in Q2 2025 as retailers aggressively restocked platinum over gold.
Investment demand is also holding firm, forecast to climb 2% year-on-year. Platinum bars and coins, especially in China, saw record sales in the first half of 2025, with bar and coin demand jumping 45% to 282,000 ounces for the year.
Much of platinum’s market volatility in 2025 has been tied to geopolitics. The Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs initially sparked fears of supply dislocations, but exemptions for unprocessed platinum eased pressure.
Nevertheless, geographic competition ,particularly between China, Europe, and the US has kept liquidity tight, pushing lease rates above 25% and keeping London’s OTC market in backwardation.
Meanwhile, gold’s ascent as a safe-haven asset has reshaped jewellery and investment flows. Investors have piled into gold, which peaked above US$2,450/oz in April, yet the metal’s steep price has boosted platinum’s appeal as a more affordable alternative.
By year-end 2025, platinum’s above-ground stocks are projected to fall to 2.98 million ounces, a 22% decline from 2024 and down almost half from 2022 levels.
That equates to just 4.5 months of global demand cover , a precariously thin buffer for a strategic metal with critical applications in clean energy, automotive emissions control, and industrial technology.
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