• South Africa's Improvement: Unemployment rate improved slightly to 31.9% in Q4 2024, with 7.991 million jobless individuals
• SADC Unemployment Trends: Was 27.24% in 2024, with projections indicating a rise to 27.62% by 2025, reflecting persistent challenges across the region.
• Impact on the SADC: South Africa's economic challenges, including high unemployment, have significant implications for neighbouring countries reliant on its economy

Harare- South Africa’s unemployment rate has shown a slight improvement, declining for the second consecutive quarter to 31.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 32.1% in the previous quarter.

This marks the lowest jobless rate since the third quarter of 2023, as the number of unemployed individuals decreased by 20,000 to 7.991 million.

Despite this marginal improvement, South Africa continues to grapple with one of the highest unemployment rates globally.

Historically, the country’s unemployment rate has averaged 27.36% since 2000, peaking at 35.30% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and hitting a record low of 21.50% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The decline in unemployment was due to job gains in key sectors such as finance, which added 232,000 jobs, and manufacturing, which saw an increase of 41,000 jobs.

However, sectors like community and social services, as well as trade, experienced significant job losses, (-63 thousand to 3.959 million) and trade (-48 thousand to 3.421 million) reported the biggest declines) highlighting the uneven nature of economic recovery.

The expanded definition of unemployment, which includes discouraged job-seekers, remained stubbornly high at 41.9%, reflecting the persistent challenges in the labour market.

Youth unemployment, though having  eased to a one-year low of 59.6%, remains alarmingly high, reflecting the difficulties faced by young South Africans in accessing employment opportunities.

In contrast, Zambia’s unemployment rate is projected to reach 6.10%  for 2024, with a gradual decline expected in the coming years, trending around 6.% in 2025 and 5.80% in 2026.

This represents a significant improvement compared to South Africa’s figures, as Zambia’s unemployment rate has consistently remained in the single digits over the past decade.

Historically, Zambia’s unemployment rate averaged 11.92% from 1986 to 2022, peaking at 19.70% in 1993 and reaching a record low of 5.% in 2018. The country’s relatively lower unemployment rate is due to its growing economy, driven by sectors such as mining, agriculture, and services.

However, underemployment and informal employment remain challenges, as many workers are engaged in low-paying and precarious jobs. Despite these issues, Zambia’s labour market performance stands out in the SADC region, where many countries struggle with high unemployment rates.

Botswana, another SADC member, has seen its unemployment rate rise to 27.60% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 25.90% in 2023. This increase reflects the ongoing economic challenges faced by the country, despite its reputation as one of Africa’s most stable and prosperous nations.

Historically, Botswana’s unemployment rate has averaged 20.60% since 1991, reaching an all-time high of 27.60% in early 2024 and a record low of 13.90% in the fourth quarter of 1991.

The country’s labour market struggles to absorb its growing workforce, particularly among the youth, who face limited opportunities in formal employment.

While Botswana’s unemployment rate is lower than South Africa’s, it remains a significant concern for policymakers, who are tasked with diversifying the economy and creating sustainable job opportunities.

Mozambique, on the other hand, faces a different set of challenges. The country’s unemployment rate is estimated at around 25%, but this figure masks the prevalence of underemployment and informal work according to International Labour Organisation.

Only 20% of employment in Mozambique is waged labour, with the remaining 80% of workers engaged in precarious self-employment, unpaid family work, or temporary and casual jobs.

This highlights the informal nature of Mozambique’s economy, where many individuals work in subsistence agriculture or small-scale trading.

While the official unemployment rate may appear lower than South Africa’s, the quality of employment in Mozambique remains a pressing issue, as most workers lack job security, social protections, and access to decent wages, the same with Zimbabwe.

In Q3 2024, Zimbabwe’s active youth population aged 16 and above stood at 8.58 million, a marginal decline from 8.6 million in Q1. The labor force also contracted slightly, dropping from 4.1 million in Q1 to 4.0 million in Q3. Total employment figures followed a similar downward trend, decreasing from 3.28 million in Q1 to 3.19 million in Q3. Consequently, the employment-to-population ratio fell to 37.2% in Q3 from 38.2% in Q1, while the number of unemployed individuals was reported at 850 326.

At first glance, these figures suggest a relatively stable labor market, but a deeper analysis reveals significant underlying issues. The reported unemployment rate appears deceptively low, masking the harsh realities of underemployment and the informal sector’s dominance.

Employment in Zimbabwe often includes informal activities such as street vending and family tuckshops, where individuals get returns of  less than $5 per day. Such subsistence-level livelihoods hardly qualify as meaningful employment, yet they are counted in official statistics, inflating the employment rate.

When comparing unemployment rates across the SADC region, it is evident that South Africa faces the most severe challenges, with its rate far exceeding those of its neighbours. Zambia’s relatively low unemployment rate stands in stark contrast to South Africa’s, while Botswana and Mozambique grapple with their own unique labour market issues.

These disparities reflect the varying economic structures, levels of industrialisation, and policy approaches within the region. South Africa’s high unemployment rate is a symptom of structural issues such as skills mismatches, slow economic growth, and a large informal sector.

In 2024, the unemployment rate in Southern Africa was 27.24 percent. The rate is projected to increase to 27.62 percent by 2025, which would still represent one of the highest unemployment rates registered from 2010 onwards. 

The Impact of South Africa’s Economic Challenges on the SADC Region

South Africa, as the most advanced and largest economy in Africa, plays a pivotal role in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Its economic performance has far-reaching implications, not only for its citizens but also for neighbouring countries that rely on South Africa for trade, investment, and employment opportunities.

However, the country’s persistent unemployment crisis, coupled with external pressures such as strained international relations and regional migration, poses significant challenges for both South Africa and its neighbors.

One of the key factors exacerbating South Africa’s unemployment challenge is the influx of job seekers from neighbouring countries, like Zimbabwe. With more than 1 million Zimbabweans seeking employment in South Africa through both legal and illegal means, the strain on the country’s labour market is immense.

Many of these migrants are driven by economic desperation, as Zimbabwe continues to face hyperinflation, nepotism and corruption, currency instability, and limited job opportunities.

While South Africa’s advanced economy attracts these migrants, the sheer volume of job seekers, particularly those entering illegally, places additional pressure on an already strained job market.

This situation creates a complex dynamic, as South Africa struggles to balance the need to provide opportunities for its own citizens while addressing the humanitarian concerns of its neighbours.

The challenges facing South Africa’s labour market are further compounded by external factors, particularly the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and South Africa.

These tensions have been fueled by South Africa’s perceived alignment with global powers such as Russia and Iran, both of which are considered adversaries by the United States with US calling for removal of South Africa from AGOA.

South Africa’s recent attempts to pursue nuclear energy development, reportedly with the support of Russia or Iran will not be taken lightly by Washington which suffers a trade deficit of more than US$1 billion annually,

If these tensions escalate into a full-blown trade war, South Africa’s economy could suffer significant setbacks. Reduced trade with the United States, one of South Africa’s key trading partners, would likely lead to lower exports, reduced foreign investment, and slower economic growth.

This, in turn, would exacerbate the country’s unemployment crisis, as businesses cut jobs in response to declining revenues and investment.

The impact of South Africa’s economic downturn would not be confined to its borders. As the economic powerhouse of the SADC region and Africa, South Africa’s struggles would have a ripple effect on neighbouring countries

 Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, and Eswatini, which are heavily dependent on trade with South Africa, would likely experience reduced export revenues and slower economic activity.

Therefore, South Africa’s unemployment crisis and its broader economic challenges have significant implications for the SADC region.

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