• South Africans vote in local elections today, 4 November 2026, to determine control of 257 municipalities amid rising dissatisfaction with unemployment and poor service delivery.
• ANC support fell from 69.7% in 2004 to 40.2% in 2024, while unemployment reached 33.6% in Q2 2026, adding pressure on the governing party.
• Zimbabwe's economic exposure remains substantial, with US$3.8 billion in imports from South Africa in 2025 and US$643 million in remittances received in 2024.

Harare- South Africans are voting in municipal elections today, 4 November 2026, against a backdrop of persistently high unemployment, deteriorating public infrastructure and declining confidence in political leadership. More than 29 million registered voters have the opportunity to determine who controls the country's municipalities for the next five years, with the outcome carrying implications for public investment, business activity and the country's political direction ahead of the 2029 national elections.

The contest comes at a difficult moment for the African National Congress (ANC), which governed South Africa with parliamentary majorities for three decades before losing that position in the 2024 general election. Its national vote share declined from approximately 70% in 2004 to 40.2% in 2024, a reduction of nearly 30 percentage points. The decline has coincided with growing public dissatisfaction over unemployment, corruption, municipal administration and the delivery of essential services.

The elections will determine representation across 257 municipalities, comprising eight metropolitan, 44 district and 205 local councils. These institutions oversee services that directly influence household welfare and business productivity, including water, electricity distribution, roads, sanitation and refuse collection. Their performance also affects property values, municipal revenue collection and the operating costs faced by businesses.

Voting opened at 7am and is scheduled to close at 9pm, with results expected in the following days. The Electoral Commission has reported 29.2 million registered voters and 23,696 voting stations. The immediate economic question concerns whether the next municipal administrations can address infrastructure deterioration and restore confidence in local government.

Three Decades of Declining ANC Support

The ANC entered democratic government in 1994 under Nelson Mandela and subsequently consolidated its electoral dominance. Its support peaked at approximately 69.7% in the 2004 national election, reflecting its broad political appeal during the post-apartheid period. By 2014, the party's national vote share had declined to around 62%, before falling further to approximately 57.5% in 2019.

The 2021 municipal elections provided an important indication of changing voter preferences. The ANC secured approximately 45.6% of combined ward and proportional representation votes, losing its majority of the national municipal vote for the first time. The Democratic Alliance (DA) obtained approximately 21.6%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) secured 10.3%. The results increased the number of municipalities requiring coalition arrangements.

Three years later, the ANC received approximately 40.2% of the national vote in the 2024 general election, forcing it to form a coalition-led national administration. Former President Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) also emerged as a significant political force, obtaining nearly 15% nationally and reshaping competition in KwaZulu-Natal.

The municipal and national elections measure different contests, although their results collectively illustrate the fragmentation of South Africa's political landscape. The 2026 elections will provide another measure of public confidence in established parties and the appeal of newer political organisations.

Unemployment and the Economic Cost of Stagnation

South Africa's labour market remains one of the most significant economic challenges confronting the government. According to Statistics South Africa, the official unemployment rate reached 33.6% in the second quarter of 2026, with approximately 16.74 million people employed. Employment declined by 16,000 during the quarter, while the number of unemployed people increased by 345,000.

These figures indicate that approximately one in three economically active South Africans seeking work remained unemployed ahead of the municipal elections. The pressure is particularly important in lower-income communities, where limited employment opportunities increase household dependence on social transfers, informal trading and public services.

High unemployment also weakens municipal finances. Households without stable incomes face difficulties paying electricity, water and property-related charges, contributing to municipal revenue collection challenges. Municipalities subsequently face tighter budgets for infrastructure maintenance, potentially worsening the quality of services required to support economic activity.

The relationship between unemployment and electoral behaviour is complex. National employment conditions are influenced by macroeconomic policy, private investment and structural constraints, while municipal governments influence local infrastructure, planning approvals and business operating conditions. Nevertheless, voters experience these economic pressures together, making employment and service delivery central to assessments of political performance.

Water Infrastructure Becomes an Economic Issue

Water supply has emerged as one of the defining issues of the 2026 campaign, particularly in Johannesburg and Tshwane. Repeated interruptions have affected households and businesses, while concerns over wastewater treatment have raised questions about the condition of public infrastructure.

According to WaterCAN, approximately half of drinking-water systems face quality concerns, while nearly 70% of wastewater treatment facilities are reportedly in a critical condition. These estimates indicate the scale of the infrastructure challenge and the investment requirements facing municipalities.

Unreliable water supplies have increased operating costs for businesses, forcing many to invest in storage tanks and alternative water sources. Frequent interruptions also disrupt production, reduce working hours and affect service delivery, placing further pressure on businesses already struggling with weak economic growth.

Infrastructure failures also have fiscal consequences. Poor maintenance increases the likelihood of expensive emergency repairs, while unreliable services can weaken municipal revenue collection. The resulting financial pressures make it more difficult to fund long-term infrastructure improvements.

This creates a challenge for incoming municipal administrations. Restoring water reliability requires expenditure on pipes, reservoirs, treatment facilities and technical personnel, alongside stronger financial management. The effectiveness of these investments will depend on maintenance budgets, procurement controls and the ability to sustain infrastructure spending over several years.

The Growing Importance of Coalition Governments

The fragmentation of electoral support has increased the importance of coalition politics in South Africa's largest municipalities. In the 2021 local elections, the ANC obtained approximately 45.6% of combined ward and proportional representation votes, while the DA and EFF secured around 21.6% and 10.3%, respectively.

Coalition arrangements can affect municipal economic management because councils must agree on budgets, infrastructure priorities, appointments and revenue measures. Changes in political leadership may delay procurement decisions or disrupt the implementation of development projects.

Johannesburg, South Africa's economic hub, has had five mayors in approximately four years, complicating long-term planning and infrastructure investment. Frequent leadership changes have occurred alongside persistent water and electricity disruptions, affecting business operations and raising concerns over the city's ability to maintain essential services.

The DA has nominated former party leader Helen Zille as its Johannesburg mayoral candidate, while the ANC and other parties are competing for representation in the city. Opinion polling has suggested that no party may secure an outright majority, making negotiations between political organisations potentially important to the next administration.

Cape Town presents a different municipal contest, with the DA seeking to retain control amid concerns about housing affordability and municipal charges. In eThekwini, which includes Durban, the MK Party is competing for influence following its strong performance in KwaZulu-Natal during the 2024 national election.

Voter Turnout and Public Confidence

Voter participation will be an important indicator of confidence in South Africa's political institutions. Turnout in the 2021 municipal elections was approximately 46% of registered voters, reflecting a substantial decline in participation compared with earlier democratic elections.

The 2026 contest has attracted approximately 29.2 million registered voters. A turnout rate matching the previous municipal election would translate into roughly 13.4 million participants. Actual participation will determine how effectively parties mobilise their supporters and how representative the resulting councils are of the registered electorate.

Public confidence indicators also reveal widespread dissatisfaction. A Human Sciences Research Council survey found that only 17% of respondents were satisfied with the country's democratic trajectory, while 68% expressed dissatisfaction. An Ipsos survey of 2,533 registered voters found that approximately half believed no political party represented their views.

These findings suggest that electoral competition is taking place amid considerable public frustration. They also indicate why voter participation, municipal performance and the credibility of political commitments are important variables in assessing the election's wider significance.

Why the Elections Matter for Zimbabwe

South Africa's economic performance has direct implications for Zimbabwe through trade and remittances. Zimbabwe imported approximately US$3.8 billion worth of goods from South Africa in 2025, while South Africa accounted for 30% of Zimbabwe's recorded diaspora remittances in 2024, equivalent to US$643 million. Disruptions to South African manufacturing and transport could increase Zimbabwe's import costs, while deteriorating employment conditions could weaken remittance inflows and household purchasing power.

Municipal governance in Johannesburg, Tshwane and eThekwini therefore has regional implications. Reliable infrastructure supports manufacturing, distribution and logistics activities, while disruptions can increase costs for businesses participating in cross-border supply chains.

Durban is particularly important because its port connects regional economies to international markets. Improvements in transport infrastructure, municipal services and logistics efficiency could strengthen regional trade competitiveness, including for Zimbabwean importers and exporters using South African corridors.

Political tensions surrounding immigration also warrant attention. Xenophobic incidents and uncertainty over migrant employment can affect Zimbabwean households dependent on income earned in South Africa. Changes in employment opportunities and migrant security may influence remittance flows and household consumption in Zimbabwe.

The implications will depend on the policies adopted by incoming municipal administrations and their capacity to implement them. Local election outcomes alone do not determine national immigration, trade or monetary policy.

The Road to the 2029 National Elections

The next South African national and provincial elections are expected in 2029, when voters will elect a new National Assembly and provincial legislatures. The National Assembly subsequently elects the country's president, making 2029 the next scheduled opportunity for a presidential transition through the national electoral process.

The 2026 municipal elections therefore provide an intermediate assessment of party support following the formation of the Government of National Unity in 2024. They will also influence political negotiations ahead of the ANC's leadership conference in December 2027.

Investors will be watching how the new municipal councils manage public finances, maintain infrastructure and implement development projects. Where no party secures a majority, coalition negotiations could delay budget approvals and investment decisions, adding to uncertainty for businesses already facing high operating costs.

South Africa's economic challenges have accumulated over several years. With unemployment exceeding 33%, persistent infrastructure weaknesses and declining confidence in political institutions, the incoming councils face considerable demands for improved public services.

The measure of progress over the next five years will be the reliability of water and electricity supply, improvements in infrastructure maintenance, stronger municipal finances and an operating environment capable of supporting private investment and employment creation. These outcomes will influence both South Africa's domestic economic prospects and its contribution to regional economic activity.

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