• Agricura is rolling out climate-smart solutions ahead of the projected 2026/27 drought
• Crop chemicals rose 7% and animal-health volumes increased 39% over nine months
• TSL needs solution-level sales data to prove its agricultural defence is working

Harare — Agricura is rolling out smart climate solutions to help farmers prepare for the projected 2026/27 Super El Niño drought, placing TSL Limited’s agricultural-trading subsidiary at the centre of the group’s response to a weather shock expected to reduce farm output, constrain input demand and place pressure on electricity generation.

TSL said the programme is designed to help farmers build resilience and adapt to climate change. The disclosure comes as the group expects drought conditions to weaken activity across the agricultural value chain, from farm production and input purchases to local manufacturing and logistics.

"Agricura is rolling out smart climate solutions designed to help farmers build resilience and adapt to the effects of climate change," the company said.

The commercial rationale is clear, drought changes the type of input farmers need, their planting decisions and their ability to finance those purchases. Agricura’s ability to retain demand will depend on whether its climate-smart offer improves the cash return from each hectare, protects livestock productivity or reduces the cost of farming under water stress.

That creates two competing pressures for the business. Demand for solutions that preserve moisture, manage weeds, protect crops and maintain animal health can increase. Farm cash flows can deteriorate at the same time, reducing spending capacity, raising credit risk and causing producers to defer seed, fertiliser and crop-protection purchases.

Agricura enters that period with mixed evidence across its product lines. Crop-chemical volumes increased 5% in the third quarter and 7% over nine months, driven by demand for weed-management products. Animal-health remedy volumes rose 198% during the quarter and 39% over nine months, supported by livestock-treatment requirements following the January disease outbreak and new business secured during the period.

Demand for tobacco seed packs weakened ahead of the anticipated drought. The decline places an early marker on farmer caution, particularly where producers face uncertainty over rainfall, irrigation availability and the returns available from dryland cropping.

The climate-smart rollout therefore carries a larger task than product promotion. Agricura needs to convert drought preparation into repeatable demand for inputs and technical support that farmers can afford, use effectively and repurchase through the season. The earnings value lies in preserving customer activity through a weaker agricultural cycle and deepening the company’s position in the farm-management decisions that determine input use.

A credible defence requires measurable evidence. The group needs to disclose which solutions it is selling, the crops and farming systems targeted, unit volumes, farmer uptake, credit terms, repeat purchases and the performance of those products under dry conditions. It also needs to show whether the programme is protecting margins or relying on discounts and extended credit to defend volumes.

The wider group provides additional sources of resilience. General cargo storage volumes increased 41% over nine months, lifting warehouse space utilisation to 94% from 92%. Demand came from fertiliser, sugar, sorghum and tobacco-related cargo, placing TSL’s logistics assets closer to essential food and agricultural supply chains.

Those assets face their own change in earnings mix. Bonded warehouse volumes fell 68% over nine months after the removal of duty on fertiliser and increased competition, while clearing volumes declined 31% as higher fuel and shipping costs reduced shipment activity. General warehousing is expanding, yet TSL has not disclosed whether its contribution can fully replace the income lost from bonded storage and clearing.

The group is adding capacity through a pre-leased 3,433-square-metre warehouse at Hubert Fox Complex, following the completion of a 4,567-square-metre facility in April. The Rutenga multimodal inland port is expected to begin operating in the fourth quarter of 2026 and could add inbound and outbound cargo volumes once customers, pricing and throughput are established.

TSL is also relying on property development to diversify cash flows. Its Harare South land-bank project remains subject to a subdivision permit, although the land-use amendment has been secured. Revenue from that development therefore remains dependent on the outstanding approval and the timing of the next construction phase.

Revenue and operating profit before tax both increased 8% over the nine months, to US$42.9 million and US$12.9 million respectively. The equal growth rates leave the group entering the projected drought from a broadly stable margin position, with limited evidence of additional operating leverage from the current portfolio mix.

The climate-smart programme becomes the central agricultural test for the next reporting period. Agricura’s crop-chemical volumes, animal-health sales, seed-pack demand, customer credit, warehouse utilisation and drought-period margins will show whether TSL has converted the El Niño threat into a defensible commercial position across its agricultural value chain.

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