• July produced a record US$320.6 million monthly merchandise surplus
• AfCFTA trade remained about US$178 million in deficit
• UAE and China absorbed more than two-thirds of Zimbabwe’s July exports

Harare- Zimbabwe has generated a US$320.6 million merchandise trade surplus in July 2026, yet the country continued to buy considerably more from its African trading partners than it sold to them, exposing a geographic divide beneath the strongest monthly external trade result in the available series.

Exports climbed to a record US$1.47 billion against imports of US$1.15 billion. Within the same month, however, exports to African Continental Free Trade Area countries amounted to about US$373.2 million against imports of US$551.1 million, leaving a deficit of approximately US$177.9 million.

Trade with SADC countries produced a similar position, with exports of about US$371 million against US$542.9 million of imports. COMESA trade was smaller but remained negative, with US$28.8 million of exports against imports of roughly US$87.6 million.

Those figures overlap because many Zimbabwean trading partners belong to more than one regional bloc and the deficits should therefore not be added together. What they establish is where Zimbabwe's new trade surplus is being generated, the strongest earnings are increasingly coming through a concentrated mineral-export relationship with markets outside the immediate African regional economy.

The United Arab Emirates absorbed US$535.2 million of Zimbabwean exports in July, followed by China at US$466.8 million and South Africa at US$316.4 million. Together the three markets accounted for almost 90% of total exports. The UAE and China alone took slightly more than US$1 billion, equivalent to about 68% of everything Zimbabwe exported during the month.

Semi-manufactured gold generated US$501.9 million, other mineral substances not elsewhere specified contributed US$318.5 million and nickel mattes produced approximately US$199 million. Those three categories generated slightly more than US$1 billion, or about 69% of total July exports.

Zimbabwe's overall surplus is therefore being built on a relatively narrow intersection of products and destinations, minerals are providing the value and the UAE and China are absorbing much of it.

The regional numbers moved differently. In June, Zimbabwe had exported approximately US$485 million to SADC and US$489.7 million to AfCFTA countries. July's respective totals of about US$371 million and US$373 million represent declines of roughly 24%, even as Zimbabwe's total exports increased from US$1.44 billion in June to US$1.47 billion in July.

That divergence strengthens the geographical reading of the July record. The additional export strength came principally from the wider mineral trade rather than from deeper penetration of Zimbabwe's neighbouring markets.

Even Zimbabwe's regional export basket remains heavily weighted towards commodities. In June, nickel mattes alone accounted for 66% of exports to SADC, while other sulphates contributed 10.3% and iron and steel products another 3.6%. The three categories represented almost 80% of SADC exports that month.

Regional integration therefore has yet to produce a broad shift towards manufactured and processed exports at a scale capable of changing the structure of Zimbabwe's external earnings.

That distinction matters for AfCFTA. Tariff access creates a larger potential market, but market access does not automatically create products that can compete in that market. Export capacity also requires reliable electricity, competitive transport costs, access to working capital, production scale, acceptable product standards and dependable cross-border settlement.

Zimbabwe remains heavily dependent on imports for several of precisely those inputs. Mineral fuels represented about 22.5% of July imports, machinery and mechanical equipment another 14.5%, vehicles around 6.5% and electrical machinery approximately 6.4%. Combined, those four categories accounted for almost half of the import bill.

A regional trade deficit therefore cannot automatically be classified as economically undesirable. Machinery, fuel and electrical equipment can support domestic production, construction, mining and agriculture. Imports can expand future productive capacity.

The weakness appears where those imported inputs fail to produce enough regionally competitive output to change the export side of the account.

South Africa illustrates the challenge particularly well. It is geographically Zimbabwe's easiest large commercial market, connected through established road, rail, financial and retail networks. Yet the large July export number remains concentrated around mineral trade rather than a broad range of consumer, manufactured and processed products capable of scaling across the region.

For Zimbabwean manufacturers, the opportunity created by the country's improving foreign-exchange position is therefore larger than the headline surplus.

A sustained merchandise surplus can improve access to imported machinery, raw materials and intermediate goods. If foreign-currency availability becomes more predictable, manufacturers can shorten procurement cycles, reduce precautionary inventory holdings and invest with greater confidence. That creates the possibility of eventually converting today's mineral earnings into a wider export base.

The alternative leaves the external account tied to mineral prices and a few major buyers. July already demonstrates that exposure. Gold exports fell from about US$583 million in June to US$502 million and nickel mattes dropped from roughly US$320 million to US$199 million. Record overall exports were maintained because the category recorded as “other mineral substances, nes” surged to about US$319 million.

That category had been only about US$35 million in May. Zimbabwe therefore achieved its strongest monthly trade balance while two major established mineral lines weakened, because another mineral category expanded sufficiently to replace them. The arithmetic is favourable; the composition remains highly concentrated.

The next test for the trade account is consequently broader than whether Zimbabwe remains in overall surplus. A more durable external improvement would begin appearing through higher non-mineral exports into SADC and AfCFTA markets, a reduction in the gap between regional exports and imports, and an export basket capable of maintaining foreign-currency earnings when individual mineral shipments or commodity prices soften.

July has demonstrated that Zimbabwe can earn more foreign currency than it spends on merchandise. The harder industrial test is whether part of that mineral windfall can now be converted into products that Zimbabwe's neighbours increasingly buy.

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