• Zimbabwe is building a 450,000-metric-tonne grain buffer as El Niño conditions return, following a record maize harvest of 2.82 million tonnes 
• International forecasters assign a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between November 2026 and January 2027
• Government has activated a broader drought preparedness strategy centred on strategic grain reserves, expanded winter cropping, irrigation development, sovereign drought insurance and fertiliser supply 

Harare - Zimbabwe is entering the 2026/27 agricultural season from its strongest grain position since dollarisation, even as international climate forecasters warn that El Niño conditions have returned and could develop into another severe drought across Southern Africa.

Government has confirmed plans to build and preserve a 450,000-metric-tonne strategic grain buffer while leveraging the country's record maize harvest of 2,824,110 metric tonnes, a level that has fundamentally changed Zimbabwe's food security outlook ahead of what could become another difficult rainfall season.

The latest assessment by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirms that El Niño conditions have already developed over the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen through late 2026. Current forecasts assign a 63% probability that the event reaches very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027, the period during which Zimbabwe's summer crops require consistent rainfall for successful grain formation.

The climate outlook immediately raises memories of the devastating 2023/24 El Niño drought, which sharply reduced agricultural output across Southern Africa and forced governments to increase grain imports, humanitarian assistance and emergency fiscal support. Zimbabwe, however, approaches this cycle from a  different position.

The Second Round Crop, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment presented to Cabinet revised the national maize harvest upward from 2,341,857 metric tonnes reported during the 16th Post-Cabinet Briefing to 2,824,110 metric tonnes following completion of crop enumeration across 1.93 million harvested hectares.

The upward revision of 482,253 metric tonnes, equivalent to a 20.6% increase, transformed what initially appeared to be a modest surplus into the largest documented post-dollarisation maize harvest in Zimbabwe's history. Against national annual maize requirements of approximately 2.2 million metric tonnes, the revised harvest leaves Zimbabwe with a surplus of approximately 624,110 metric tonnes.

That surplus is historically significant. Over the eighteen agricultural seasons between FY2008 and FY2025, Zimbabwe exceeded national maize requirements only three times. FY2017 produced a surplus of roughly 44,000 tonnes. FY2022 generated approximately 98,000 tonnes above national demand. The current season has produced more than 624,000 tonnes above consumption requirements, exceeding the combined surplus generated during the previous two surplus years.

The achievement becomes even more remarkable when viewed against Zimbabwe's recent agricultural history. In FY2008, maize production fell to only 525,000 metric tonnes, leaving the country with a deficit approaching one million tonnes.

The devastating 2015/16 El Niño drought reduced production further to 512,000 tonnes, creating a grain shortfall of almost 1.5 million tonnes and triggering one of the largest food emergency responses of the post-dollarisation period. Production recovered to 1.08 million tonnes in FY2024 as weather conditions improved before surging to this year's record harvest.

The trajectory illustrates one of the strongest agricultural recoveries recorded since dollarisation. Government is now attempting to convert that production success into climate resilience with plans to preserve 150,000 tonnes within the Strategic Grain Reserve, secure another 150,000 tonnes from the ongoing winter cropping programme and retain a further 150,000 tonnes from the 2027 winter season. Rather than waiting for drought to emerge before sourcing grain, Zimbabwe is accumulating stocks while domestic production remains exceptionally strong.

As of early June, the Grain Marketing Board held 156,603 metric tonnes in storage, complemented by 70,866 metric tonnes of privately owned grain stored within the country's AI-enabled silo network and Warehouse Receipt System.

Together with the current harvest surplus, Zimbabwe enters the new agricultural cycle with an estimated grain availability approaching 851,000 metric tonnes above immediate consumption requirements, the largest documented pre-season reserve in the post-dollarisation era.

The reserve serves a broader economic purpose than food security alone. Agriculture remains deeply intertwined with Zimbabwe's macroeconomic stability. Every tonne of maize produced locally reduces future grain imports, lowers demand for foreign currency, eases pressure on the exchange rate and limits food inflation. Strong grain reserves also reduce emergency fiscal expenditure while improving confidence that domestic markets can remain adequately supplied during periods of climatic stress.

Climate shocks have historically transmitted rapidly into the wider economy through rising food prices, increased import requirements, weaker rural incomes and higher government spending. Building grain reserves before production declines shifts policy from emergency response towards proactive risk management.

Unlike the summer cropping season, winter production depends primarily on irrigation, allowing Zimbabwe to continue expanding grain supplies even if rainfall deteriorates later in the year. Government's decision to preserve grain from both the current and the 2027 winter production cycles reflects growing recognition that irrigated agriculture has become one of the country's most effective climate adaptation tools.

Cabinet has adopted a nine-point drought preparedness programme that includes activating the Africa Risk Capacity sovereign insurance facility, accelerating irrigation development, commissioning the Sable Chemicals ammonium nitrate plant to strengthen fertiliser availability, facilitating duty-free fertiliser imports and expanding procurement into the Strategic Grain Reserve using the country's AI-supported silo network.

Should production collapse to levels comparable with the 2015/16 drought, Zimbabwe could face a maize deficit approaching 1.7 million tonnes. The estimated 851,000-tonne reserve would cover roughly half of that worst-case scenario from domestic stocks, with sovereign drought insurance, regional grain procurement and import facilitation expected to bridge the remaining requirement.

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