• Sibanye-Stillwater projects an estimated 30% decline in group output by 2035
  • A ZAR461 million impairment at the Mimosa platinum mine highlights rising operating costs and the impact of Zimbabwe’s beneficiation tax on long-term cash flow expectations and asset valuations
  • The group is pursuing portfolio simplification, R3 billion cost savings by 2027 and diversification into battery metals, including lithium

Harare - Sibanye-Stillwater, a multinational mining and metals processing group with a diverse portfolio of operations, projects and investments across five continents, has signalled a structural shift in its long-term production outlook after projecting an estimated 30% decline in group output by 2035.

 According to the latest Investor meeting presentation, the development is to reshape the company’s strategic priorities and accelerating its transition toward portfolio optimisation, cost discipline and targeted growth in future-facing metals.

The outlook reflects the natural maturation and depletion trajectory of several legacy assets within the group’s gold and platinum group metals (PGM) portfolio, underscoring the geological realities confronting established mining houses globally.

The company  has framed the anticipated decline as a strategic inflection point, prompting a refreshed operating model anchored on simplification, operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation aimed at sustaining value creation despite moderating volumes.

The structural pressures facing Sibanye-Stillwater’s asset base are not confined to geology alone. In Zimbabwe, the group  wrote down the value of its Mimosa platinum mine by ZAR461 million (US$28.7 million) following a June 30, 2025 life-of-mine reassessment that incorporated higher operating and capital cost assumptions alongside the introduction of a beneficiation tax.

The revised parameters reduced projected future cash flows and resulted in an impairment of property, plant and equipment as well as a downward adjustment to Sibanye-Stillwater’s equity-accounted investment in the operation.

The Mimosa impairment illustrates how fiscal policy shifts and cost escalation are increasingly shaping asset valuations across emerging mining jurisdictions. Zimbabwe’s evolving regulatory framework, which emphasises domestic mineral beneficiation and enhanced fiscal participation in extractive industries, has begun influencing long-term project economics, particularly for foreign-owned assets operating within mature ore bodies.

The updated Mimosa assessment highlighted working and capital costs rising above prior US dollar inflation assumptions while also reflecting the impact of beneficiation taxation on expected returns. Lower anticipated cash flows consequently reduced the mine’s value in use, although management indicated no further impairment indicators were identified at year-end following the mid-year review.

Operational dynamics at Mimosa reinforced this narrative. Attributable production declined 5% year-on-year to 117,019 4E ounces, largely due to concentrator downtime linked to power outages, while all-in sustaining costs increased 11% to US$1,280/4Eoz amid lower volumes.

Despite these headwinds, stronger realised PGM prices supported revenue growth to ZAR3.61 billion and lifted EBITDA to ZAR1.08 billion, highlighting the counterbalancing effect of favourable commodity markets on operational performance.

The interplay between asset maturity, cost inflation and regulatory developments mirrors the broader challenges embedded within Sibanye-Stillwater’s long-term production outlook. As output gradually moderates, sustaining profitability increasingly depends on margin management, portfolio optimisation and strategic diversification.

To address these pressures, the group is implementing a multi-year optimisation programme that includes brownfield expansions, resource conversion initiatives and infrastructure upgrades designed to extend asset life and improve operating efficiency across core operations.

Complementing these initiatives is a targeted R3 billion annual cost-saving programme by 2027 spanning procurement optimisation, process improvements and technology deployment, positioning operational discipline as a central lever in navigating structural decline.

The company’s growth philosophy is also evolving. Having spent much of the previous decade expanding through acquisitions that built scale across gold, PGMs, recycling and battery metals, Sibanye-Stillwater is now prioritising organic value unlock and portfolio rationalisation to enhance returns and strengthen balance-sheet flexibility.

Diversification into energy-transition metals represents a further strategic response. The Keliber lithium project in Finland, where construction is nearing completion and mining has commenced, is positioned as a cornerstone growth platform intended to anchor Sibanye-Stillwater within European battery supply chains while providing a new long-duration production stream capable of complementing mature operations.

Within the PGM portfolio, mechanised expansions and low-capital-intensity projects are expected to incrementally bolster future output relative to baseline projections, partially offsetting depletion-driven declines.

Meanwhile, the gold division is transitioning toward higher-margin shallow mining and tailings retreatment activities, underscoring a deliberate pivot toward assets with stronger cash generation characteristics and lower operational risk.

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