• Declared R3.7 billion final dividend, representing 35% of normalised earnings and a 2.1% yield, supported by strong cash generation and net debt
• Headline earnings per share surged 281% to 244 SA cents, adjusted EBITDA jumped 189% to R37.8 billion, and revenue rose 14% to R129.7 billion
• All operations met or beat guidance, total recordable injury frequency rate reached lowest-ever level, 765 MW renewable energy secured, while impairments remain key challenges

Harare- Sibanye-Stillwater, the diversified South African mining giant, reinstated its dividend payments after a three-year hiatus on 20 February 2026, buoyed by a 281% surge in headline earnings per share (HEPS) to 244 SA cents and a 189% jump in adjusted EBITDA to R37.8 billion (US$2.1 billion) for the year ended 31 December 2025.

This marked a dramatic financial turnaround, driven by favourable precious metals prices and operational stability across its portfolio, though tempered by impairments and one-off costs that resulted in a basic loss per share of 183 SA cents.

The declaration of a R3.7 billion dividend (R1.31 per share), representing 35% of normalized earnings and a 2.1% yield, underlined the company's restored confidence in its cash generation capabilities, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA falling to a comfortable 0.59x.

The company's revenue climbed 14% year-on-year to R129.7 billion (US$7.3 billion), reflecting solid contributions from its Southern African platinum group metals (PGM) and gold operations, which together accounted for the bulk of the EBITDA uplift.

In the SA PGM segment, production held steady at 1.72 million 4E ounces excluding third-party concentrate aligning with guidance despite surface output challenges from weather and facility transitions.

Adjusted EBITDA here more than doubled to R16.7 billion (US$933 million), propelled by a 25% rise in the average basket price to R31,110 per 4E ounce amid rallying platinum, palladium, and rhodium markets.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) increased 10% to R24,193 per 4E ounce, largely due to higher royalties tied to elevated prices, highlighting the segment's sensitivity to commodity cycles.

The SA gold operations, while facing production headwinds, demonstrated high leverage to gold prices, which averaged R1.94 million per kilogram (up 39%). Output declined 10% to 632,341 ounces due to seismicity and infrastructure issues at Kloof, prompting a shortened mine life and exclusion of high-risk areas.

Nevertheless, adjusted EBITDA soared 114% to R12.5 billion (US$700 million), contributing 33% to the group total and illustrating the asset's value in a high-price environment. This performance reaffirms gold's role as a hedge against volatility, though ongoing safety and operational constraints underscore the need for sustained investment in sustainable practices.

Internationally, the US PGM operations rebounded post-restructuring, producing 284,069 2E ounces exceeding guidance and swinging to an adjusted EBITDA of US$249 million (R4.4 billion), aided by US Section 45X credits totalling US$185 million.

AISC fell to US$1,203 per 2E ounce, well below plan, while the recycling business, bolstered by acquisitions like Metallix, delivered US$228 million in EBITDA, showcasing margin resilience despite pricing lags.

In Europe, the Keliber lithium project advanced toward Q1 2026 startup, with a staged approach to mitigate market risks, though impairments of R7.8 billion reflected a subdued long-term lithium price outlook.

The Sandouville nickel refinery was placed on care and maintenance, reducing losses, while Australia's Century zinc operation boosted output 22% to 101 kilotonnes, cutting AISC 17% and generating US$88 million in EBITDA.

Safety metrics improved markedly, with the total recordable injury frequency rate dropping 13% to 3.78, the lowest ever though six fatalities marred the year, prompting renewed focus on behavioural programs.

Environmentally, Sibanye-Stillwater solidified its renewable energy leadership in SA mining, securing 765MW of capacity expected to save over R1 billion annually from 2028 and cut emissions by 2.63 million tCO2e. These initiatives align with global energy transitions but highlight execution risks in volatile commodity markets.

Market reaction was mixed. Shares dipped 3.84% to US$15.27 on the NYSE initially but rebounded 1.96% in premarket trading on February 20, closing up 4.39% at US$15.94 by February 23, 2026.

Analysts maintain a Buy rating with a US$17 price target, citing the dividend resumption and EBITDA strength, though RBC trimmed its target slightly from US$18. The company's refreshed strategy emphasizes portfolio simplification, performance excellence, and disciplined capital allocation, including a goal to halve gross debt over two to three years.

Objectively, Sibanye-Stillwater's 2025 results signal resilience amid geopolitical tensions and commodity swings, with diversified assets providing buffers against single-metal exposure.

However, lithium impairments and ongoing battery metals challenges despite commitment to the segment pose risks if prices remain subdued.

Gold and PGM tailwinds could sustain momentum into 2026, per guidance, but external factors like US antidumping duties on Russian palladium and global supply constraints will be pivotal. With a strong balance sheet and operational improvements, the outlook leans positive, contingent on disciplined execution and favourable macro conditions.

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