• internal forecasts at possible 50 tonnes in FY2026
• price momentum likely to be sustained throughout 2026
• environmental hazards and side marketing could undercut returns

Gold prices breaking through US$5,000 per ounce mark a historic inflection point for global commodity markets and present Zimbabwe with both a rare windfall and a complex stress test.

As the country’s single largest export earner, gold generated approximately US$5 billion in export receipts in 2025, underpinned by deliveries of 36.7 tonnes. With internal projections suggesting output could approach 50 tonnes this year, the price surge has the potential to materially strengthen foreign currency inflows, fiscal revenues, and external stability.

Whether that potential is realised, however, depends less on price alone and more on the structure, sustainability, and governance of production. At current price levels, the arithmetic is compelling.

Even without a significant increase in volumes, elevated prices dramatically lift gross export earnings, providing a powerful external anchor for the balance of payments. For a country where foreign currency availability remains a binding constraint, higher gold receipts could ease pressure on the exchange rate, support reserve accumulation, and improve the credibility of macroeconomic management.

In this sense, gold at US$5,000 offers Zimbabwe breathing space at a time when other export sectors remain constrained and global financing conditions are tightening.

Yet price-driven optimism masks important structural realities. Zimbabwe’s gold sector remains heavily skewed toward artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM), who are estimated to contribute over 80% of deliveries. While this segment has proven resilient and responsive to price incentives, it also raises concerns around sustainability, environmental degradation, safety standards, and revenue leakages.

The case for riverbed rehabilitation following environmentally damaging mining practices is a point in question. High prices intensify these risks by encouraging rapid, often uncontrolled extraction, particularly in riverbeds and ecologically sensitive areas.

Without stronger enforcement and formalisation, the very price surge that boosts short-term receipts could undermine the long-term viability of the resource base. In Zambia over the weekend, President Hichilema  ordered a crackdown in response to a surge in dangerous, unlicensed mining, which has caused numerous deaths, environmental destruction, and deadly confrontations between illegal miners and authorities.

Large-scale mining in Zimbabwe presents a partial counterbalance. Increased investment by established players is expected to lift industrial output, improve recovery rates, and stabilise production profiles. Higher prices strengthen project economics, justify capital expenditure, and shorten payback periods, making Zimbabwe’s gold assets more attractive to global mining capital. Kavango, Rio Zim and Caledonia Mining are some of the leading players committing huge sums to speed up mining development activities.

However, large-scale operations remain constrained by legacy challenges including policy uncertainty, infrastructure deficits, power reliability, and the cost of compliance. While price momentum improves incentives, it does not automatically resolve these structural bottlenecks.

From a production perspective, the ambition to move from 36.7 tonnes toward 50 tonnes is achievable but not guaranteed. Artisanal miners can scale volumes quickly, but at rising environmental and social cost. Large-scale producers scale more slowly, but with higher efficiency and sustainability. The optimal outcome lies in shifting the composition of output toward formal, capital-intensive operations while progressively formalising ASM activity. Without this transition, production growth risks being both volatile and extractive rather than developmental.

The implications for foreign currency flows are quite significant. Gold receipts already account for a substantial share of Zimbabwe’s export earnings, and further price appreciation could push inflows well beyond recent highs.

This would support import cover, ease liquidity pressures in the domestic FX market, and provide a buffer against external shocks especially on currency. However, the net benefit depends on the integrity of the flow. Leakages through smuggling, under-invoicing, and informal trading reduce the effective FX capture by the formal system. At elevated prices, the incentive to bypass official channels increases, making enforcement and pricing transparency critical.

There is also a fiscal dimension. Higher prices increase royalty and tax potential, but only if production is captured within the formal net. Over-reliance on the sector for revenue, particularly through aggressive extraction from compliant producers, risks repeating a familiar pattern where a narrow formal base carries disproportionate fiscal pressure. In a context where informalisation is already expanding, policy calibration will matter as much as price levels.

Globally, the gold rally reflects deeper forces that may sustain elevated prices. Geopolitical fragmentation, persistent inflation concerns, rising sovereign debt, and central bank diversification away from traditional reserve currencies have reinforced gold’s role as a store of value.

While prices at US$5,000 invite caution about overheating, the underlying drivers suggest that gold could remain structurally supported rather than reverting quickly to historical norms. For Zimbabwe, this improves the medium-term outlook but does not eliminate volatility risk.

The central question, therefore, is preparedness. Zimbabwe has the resource endowment and a responsive mining base, but readiness is uneven. Infrastructure, environmental governance, and institutional capacity lag the pace of price-driven opportunity. Without reforms that improve formalisation, incentivise sustainable practices, and attract long-term capital, the price surge risks becoming a high-water mark rather than a foundation for durable growth.

Therefore, gold at US$5,000 per ounce offers Zimbabwe a powerful external tailwind, with the potential to strengthen foreign currency flows, stabilise the macroeconomy, and attract new investment.

But it also exposes the limits of a mining model heavily dependent on artisanal production and vulnerable to governance gaps. The momentum is real, but its sustainability will be determined not by markets in London or New York, but by policy choices, enforcement capacity, and the ability to convert elevated prices into lasting productive value at home.