• Spot gold reached a fresh all-time high above $4,600 per ounce extending 2025's massive rally up 72% year-on-year, driven by safe-haven flows from U.S.-Europe tariff threats over Greenland
  • This positions the metal for potential $5,000+ in H1 2026 per forecasts from HSBC, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan
  • The standard 10% royalty could activate in Q1 to  mid-2026, enhancing fiscal revenues while pressuring producer profitability

 

         

Sources: World Gold Council, Equity Axis

Harare- Gold prices have set a new record high on the 19th of January 2026, buoyed by intensified safe-haven demand following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of 10% tariffs on goods from eight European nations over the unresolved Greenland dispute, with potential escalation to 25% by June absent concessions. Spot gold surged to $4,667.83 per troy ounce, up 1.59% from the prior session, as investors fled escalating trade risks alongside persistent geopolitical flashpoints in Iran.

This move reinforces gold's classic hedge function in a world of trade fragmentation, monetary policy scrutiny, and currency concerns.

Year on year, gold has risen by approximately 72%, climbing from around $2,714 per ounce in January 2025 to current levels, propelled by sustained central bank diversification, inflationary fears, and a softer U.S. dollar that enhances affordability for emerging-market buyers. Year-to-date gains stand at roughly 8.1%, advancing from $4,318.11 at the start of 2026, highlighting a powerful start to the year amid macro tailwinds like anticipated Federal Reserve easing and structural ETF inflows.

Gold continues to see a spike in pricing as demand for safe-haven assets rises amid a perfect storm of risks, Trump's aggressive tariffs threatening European supply chains, ongoing Middle East and Latin American instability, and broader doubts over fiat stability. Central banks, particularly in Asia, maintain aggressive purchases, while ETF holdings swell as portfolios reallocate from equities amid volatility.

As gold rises, other key commodities rising include silver (up sharply year-to-date above $90 per ounce on dual safe-haven and industrial demand from solar/electronics), copper (gaining from AI-driven electrification and supply tightness), and base metals like aluminum, lithium, tin, and zinc (supported by strategic stockpiling amid U.S.-China resource nationalism).

However, on the downside, commodities being affected by this include crude oil (dipping on non-OPEC oversupply and subdued demand growth, with Brent around $63 per barrel), natural gas (down significantly due to mild weather and inventory builds), and certain agriculturals like cocoa (slumping on exporter hedging and index adjustments). This bifurcation shows precious metals thriving on uncertainty while energy faces surplus headwinds.

This week, the top five movers in commodities were silver (+9.86%), gold (+3.87%), oil (+3.14%), with notable shakers including natural gas (-12.35%) and cocoa (-12%), reflecting the market's split between geopolitical-driven metals strength and energy/agricultural oversupply pressures.

Into the first quarter, gold is projected to rise to between $4,900 and $5,000 per ounce, based on forecasts from Goldman Sachs ($4,900), HSBC ($5,050 in H1), and JPMorgan ($5,055 by Q4), driven by expected rate cuts, ongoing central bank buying, and trade war escalation risks that could further undermine confidence in traditional assets.

For FY 2026, gold's average price is expected around $4,500 to $5,000, with bullish scenarios pushing toward $6,000 if deficits widen and tensions persist (per Jefferies and Yardeni), while base cases from Deutsche Bank ($4,950) and others reflect potential corrections from profit-taking but sustained upside from investment demand (1,400-1,500 tonnes projected) outweighing jewellery softness.

Back home in Zimbabwe, the gold market in January 2026 thrives amid the global surge, with artisanal and small-scale miners benefiting from record deliveries. Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR), the sole official buyer, reported total gold production reaching an all-time high of 46.7 tonnes in 2025, up 17% from 36.48 tonnes in 2024, with small-scale miners contributing 34.9 tonnes and large-scale operations 11.8 tonnes, driven by high prices and supportive policies.

As of mid-January 2026, FGR's buying rates stand at $4,357.29 per ounce for 90% purity and above, $4,311.25 for 85-90%, $4,264.91 for 80-85%, and $4,218.88 for 75-80%, providing miners with competitive payouts aligned closely to international benchmarks after deductions.

The government continues extending gold purchases to back the ZiG currency, with foreign exchange and gold reserves reaching $1.1 billion by late 2025 (providing about 1.2 months of import cover), a strategy set to persist into 2026 for enhanced stability. The royalty structure applies a standard 5% rate for prices between $1,200 and $5,000 per ounce, with the 10% windfall rate triggered only above $5,000 following revisions in the 2026 budget to address industry concerns over profitability. This positions large-scale operators like Caledonia Mining to maintain margins under current conditions while capturing revenue windfalls at higher thresholds.

Miners will start feeling the impact of the 10% royalty when global prices exceed $5,000 per ounce, with analysts projecting this could occur as early as Q1 2026 in aggressive scenarios (UBS, HSBC) or by mid-to-late year in base cases (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs at $4,900-$5,055), driven by persistent geopolitical drivers and monetary easing.

At projected 2026 outputs potentially exceeding 50 tonnes, this threshold would generate substantial additional fiscal revenue but could pressure net earnings by 4-5 percentage points for marginal producers unless offset by efficiencies or incentives.

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