• Historic monthly trade surplus achieved — Zim recorded a trade surplus of US$90.5 million the first monthly surplus approaching US$100 million and only the fourth such positive balance since late 2020
• This was driven by record exports of US$1.046 billion outpacing reduced imports of US$955.8 million
• Export strength led by commodities — Exports hit a new high, fuelled primarily by gold (42.6% of total at US$445.2 million), tobacco (23.7%), and nickel mattes (17%)
• Import contraction and sustainability concerns — A 5.7% drop in imports contributed significantly to the surplus, marking the third surplus in 2025

Harare- Zimbabwe achieved a historic trade surplus of US$90.5 million in November 2025, marking the country's first-ever monthly surplus approaching the US$100 million threshold, according to the latest data from Zimstat. This outcome was driven by record exports totalling US$1.046 billion, a slight increase from US$1.042 billion in October, which significantly outpaced imports of US$955.8 million, a contraction from US$1.013 billion the previous month.

The surge in exports was predominantly fuelled by key commodities: gold accounted for 42.4% of total exports at US$445.2 million (down from US$480.6 million in October), followed by tobacco at US$249.18 million (23.7%), nickel mattes at US$177.88 million (17%), mineral substances, and ferro-alloys.

This performance not only set a new export record but also represented Zimbabwe's third trade surplus of 2025, following US$7.2 million in August and US$29 million in October.

Historically, such surpluses have been rare; this was only the fourth month-on-month trade surplus since November 2020, when a US$19.2 million surplus was last recorded. Prior to these developments, Zimbabwe's external sector has long been plagued by persistent and structural trade deficits, underscoring the exceptional nature of 2025's intermittent positives amid a backdrop of chronic imbalances.

 The momentum behind this surplus was amplified by a notable decline in imports, which fell by 5.7% month-on-month, reflecting targeted reductions in key categories without evident supply disruptions. Mineral fuels and oils dropped from US$185.92 million to US$162.63 million, maize corn from US$56.92 million to US$47.56 million (benefiting from an improved domestic harvest), motor vehicles for goods transport from US$22.27 million to US$21.55 million, and other elecrical vehicles from US$24.6 million to US$18.69 million.

Overall, the top imported products in November included mineral fuels and oils (20.4% of total imports), machinery and mechanical appliances (10.5%), cereals (7.0%), fertilizers (6.4%), and electrical machinery and equipment (5.6%), comprising a significant portion of the US$955.8 million import bill.

This softening suggests efficiency-driven adjustments rather than forced suppression, though absolute import levels remain high for locally producible goods like maize, wheat, soybeans, and even electricity. Maize imports at US$47.28 million were 28% above the 2025 monthly average of US$36.90 million, highlighting ongoing structural pressures from domestic supply constraints and climatic variability.

Conversely, soybean oil imports rose from US$24 million to US$28 million, soybeans from US$6 million to US$13.8 million, and electricity imports more than doubled from US$7 million to US$16.9 million, pointing to missed opportunities for local substitution. 

Geographically, Zimbabwe's trade patterns in November 2025 revealed heavy reliance on a few key partners. Major export destinations included the United Arab Emirates (44.4%), South Africa (21.8%), and China (21.2%), which together accounted for 87% of the US$1.046 billion export value. On the import side, South Africa dominated at 39.2%, followed by China (15.8%), Bahamas (7.2%), and Bahrain (6.8%), representing 69% of the US$955.8 million total.

Regionally, exports to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) totaled US$237.8 million, led by nickel mattes (74.6%), tobacco (4.4%), coke and semi-coke of coal (4.1%), and nickel ores and concentrates (3.9%), comprising 87% of the value. To the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), exports were modest at US$7.6 million, dominated by coke and semi-coke of coal (31.7%), iron or steel products (22.8%), and bituminous coal (17.7%). Exports to the European Union (EU) reached US$28.1 million, primarily tobacco (68.3%), industrial diamonds (13.2%), ferro-chromium (7.0%), and granite (6.4%), accounting for 95% of the total.

Similarly, to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), exports hit US$238.5 million, with nickel mattes (74.4%), tobacco (4.7%), coke and semi-coke of coal (4.1%), and nickel ores and concentrates (3.9%) making up 87%.

Imports from SADC, valued at US$495.8 million, featured cereals (11.6%), machinery and mechanical appliances (9.3%), mineral fuels and oils (8.8%), and fertilizers (6.9%), totaling 37% of the value, often including goods like maize from South Africa that could be produced domestically if policies allowed for scaled GMO cultivation.

From the EU (US$19.6 million), key imports were machinery and mechanical appliances (35.0%), fertilizers (11.0%), and meat products (8.8%), comprising 55%. COMESA imports (US$70.6 million) included salt and earths (15.3%), fertilizers (8.3%), cereals (7.1%), and electrical equipment (6.7%). AfCFTA imports (US$506.1 million) mirrored these, with cereals (11.4%), machinery (9.2%), mineral fuels (8.6%), and fertilizers (7.0%) accounting for 36%, further emphasizing dependencies on regional suppliers for essentials that exacerbate trade vulnerabilities. 

A deeper analysis of the surplus drivers reveals its commodity-centric nature, raising questions about long-term sustainability. Gold has been pivotal in 2025, contributing US$4.1 billion to the year's US$8.57 billion in exports over 11 months, enabling the three surpluses amid record prices influenced by global factors like U.S. policies under Donald Trump and geopolitical tensions such as Russia's actions in Ukraine.

The marginal export growth was largely propelled by tobacco (up 64% month-on-month) and nickel mattes (up 39%), offsetting declines in gold (down 7%), mineral substances (down 41%), ferro-alloys (down 17%), chromium ores (down 23%), coke and semi-coke (down 3%), and nickel ores (down 5%). Without these rebounds, a surplus might have been elusive.

Historically, surpluses were absent in prior years when commodity prices lagged, highlighting the lack of export diversification. While the import decline signals progress, it does not address elevated costs for importable locals like cereals and electricity, which could be mitigated through expanded thermal power (leveraging abundant coal) before transitioning to costlier solar, enhanced irrigation for agriculture, and policies to boost local production of maize and soybeans. 

Despite these intermittent surpluses in 2025, Zimbabwe's annual external position remains fragile, vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations and lacking diversification for enduring stability. With gold prices surging, a fourth surplus in December is plausible, but sustainability demands structural reforms.

Comprehensive policies should prioritize industrialisation, expansion of coal fields, downstream value addition in agro-processing, manufacturing, and mining beneficiation, alongside revised tax incentives, eased export surrender rules, and facilitated imports of critical equipment for irrigation and thermal power.

By channeling investments into services and manufacturing, Zimbabwe can broaden its export base, reduce import dependencies, and foster a resilient trade framework that transcends commodity cycles.

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