• Despite a strong rebound in 2025 harvest and planting exceeding 1.885 million hectares in 2026, maize imports remained substantial ranking third-largest import commodity by value,
• South Africa continues to dominate as SADC's maize hub, supplying Zimbabwe with 48,332 tonnes in January 2026 (41% of regional exports) and roughly 35% of the 1.5 million tonnes cumulatively exported regionally from May 2025 to January 2026.
• From the post-2000 land reform collapse and hyperinflation lows to ZiG-era stabilization have left maize production volatile, expanded irrigation, local fertilizer production, reliable supplier payments, and regulated GMO cultivation are next steps to reduce import dependence

Harare- Zimbabwe's maize sector continues to reflect the country's turbulent yet resilient agricultural history, oscillating between periods of surplus, severe disruption, and tentative recovery. While the nation celebrated a landmark achievement in wheat production harvesting more than 640,000 metric tonnes in 2025 and attaining full self-sufficiency in the crop for the first time in decades, maize stubbornly remains the third-largest import commodity by value.

According to data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat), maize imports were valued at US$443.49 million in 2025, down from US$602.64 million in 2024, US$149.51 million in 2023, and a low of US$35.91 million in 2022 when the country recorded a bumper harvest.

By comparison, cumulative wheat imports since 2021 total roughly US$620 million, significantly lower than maize's US$1.34 billion over the same period. This enduring reliance on maize imports, even as domestic output improves, shows deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities tied to policy changes, climate variability, and economic instability.

The 2024/2025 cropping season delivered a notable rebound, with maize output reaching 1.82 million tonnes, nearly triple the drought-reduced 635,000 tonnes of the previous year and 12% above the five-year average. Favourable weather patterns, expanded planted area, and government input-support schemes drove the recovery. Communal farmers contributed substantially, accounting for 44% of total production, with Mashonaland West emerging as a leading province.

The improved harvest reduced maize import volumes by 37% in the first ten months of 2025, falling to approximately 947,100 tonnes from 1.5 million tonnes the year before, although the value decline was moderated by elevated global prices.

For the 2025–2026 summer season, farmers surpassed the national maize planting target of 1.8 million hectares, achieving 1,885,833 hectares (105% of plan). Early-season rainfall supported good crop establishment, fuelling optimism for another solid harvest.

However, projections for 2026 range from 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes depending on weather outcomes still well below annual consumption needs exceeding 2 million tonnes when human food, livestock feed, and industrial demand are combined. Persistent deficits stem from high post-harvest losses (typically 20–30%), inconsistent yields in rain-fed systems, and mismatches between harvest timing and peak consumption periods.

Imports therefore continue to play an indispensable role. In January 2026, Zimbabwe imported 48,332 tonnes of white maize from South Africa, representing about 41% of the exporter's regional shipments that month. Weekly averages stood at 12,083 tonnes, nearly double Botswana's volume and far exceeding other neighbouring countries.

From May 2025 to the end of January 2026, South Africa exported approximately 1.5 million tonnes of maize to the region, with Zimbabwe accounting for roughly 35%. Geographic proximity, reliable logistics, and varietal compatibility ensure South Africa remains the dominant supplier. These imports help buffer price volatility, stabilise domestic supply, and replenish the Strategic Grain Reserve, which has faced periodic drawdowns.

The government imposed a temporary maize import restriction in early 2025 following the strong 2024/2025 harvest, only to lift the measure in October 2025 to safeguard supply continuity.

Seed companies, led by SeedCo—Zimbabwe's largest seed house, continue to deliver high-quality hybrids. Varieties such as SC555 (early-maturing and drought-resistant), SC619 (medium-maturity), and flagship SC717 and SC719 (capable of yielding up to 20 tonnes per hectare under optimal conditions) have become staples among commercial and progressive smallholder farmers. Other suppliers, including Pioneer, Pannar, Valley Seeds, Zadzamatura, and ZAP, also offer competitive drought-tolerant and high-yielding options.

Despite these advances in seed technology, broader constraints limit potential gains. Expanded irrigation infrastructure, increased local fertiliser production, more reliable payment mechanisms to input suppliers, and greater investment in research and development remain critical.

Allowing regulated, contained GMO maize production domestically, rather than relying solely on GMO imports from South Africa could further reduce import dependence and enhance resilience.

The roots of Zimbabwe's maize story trace back to the post-independence period after 1980. At independence, the country inherited a sharply dualistic agricultural structure. A  highly efficient large-scale commercial sector controlled largely by white farmers and a low-productivity subsistence-oriented communal sector.

During the 1980s and early 1990s, smallholder maize farming underwent a remarkable transformation, often described as a "green revolution." Government-backed extension services, subsidized fertilizer and seed packages, accessible credit, and reliable marketing channels through the Grain Marketing Board fuelled rapid growth.

Maize production peaked at around 2.6 million tonnes in the mid-1990s, with smallholder yields frequently surpassing 1.3 tonnes per hectare. Zimbabwe earned international recognition as the breadbasket of Southern Africa, consistently exporting maize surpluses and maintaining widespread food security.

That era of prosperity ended abruptly with the Fast Track Land Reform Programme initiated around 2000. The compulsory acquisition and redistribution of white-owned commercial farms severely disrupted established production systems.

Maize output collapsed, dropping by more than 60 percent in several seasons during the early 2000s. Although the reform sought to correct historical land imbalances, many newly resettled farmers lacked the capital, technical knowledge, inputs, and supporting infrastructure needed to sustain high productivity.

Large tracts of previously cultivated land lay fallow. Compounded by successive droughts and a deepening national economic crisis, maize harvests averaged well below 1 million tonnes throughout the mid-2000s. Between 2002 and 2012, annual staple grain production declined by approximately 31%, intensifying food insecurity and driving massive import requirements.

The hyperinflation crisis of 2007–2009 pushed the sector to its lowest point. Monthly inflation rates soared into the billions of percent, eroding purchasing power, collapsing input supply chains, and rendering commercial farming largely unviable. Farmers struggled to procure seeds, fertilizers, and fuel at any price. Humanitarian food aid became a lifeline, and the country imported enormous quantities of maize to prevent widespread famine.

During this nadir, annual maize production frequently hovered around 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes, far short of the more than 2 million tonnes required annually for human consumption, livestock feed, and industrial processing.

Economic stabilization commenced with the adoption of multiple-currency dollarisation in 2009, which halted hyperinflation and gradually restored market confidence. Maize production began a slow recovery during the 2010s, aided by private-sector contract farming arrangements, improved rainfall in certain seasons, and targeted government support programmes.

Maize's long-term trajectory reveals both progress and persistent obstacles. Heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture leaves the crop exposed to climate shocks such as El Niño events, while inadequate irrigation coverage, uneven access to finance, and limited mechanisation cap yield potential.

Improvements in post-harvest handling, storage, and climate-smart practices are urgently needed.

The wheat sector's recent milestone offers a powerful blueprint. Targeted investment in irrigation, variety development, and policy consistency can close structural gaps. If similar commitment is applied to maize through expanded irrigation, improved input ecosystems, and strategic openness to yield-enhancing technologies, Zimbabwe could significantly reduce its maize import bill, strengthen economic stability, and reclaim greater regional influence in Southern African food systems.

South Africa stands as the undisputed maize hub within the SADC, consistently producing surpluses that underpin regional food security and trade. As Africa's largest maize producer and the only SADC member with widespread commercial adoption of genetically modified (GM) varieties, South Africa generates around 10-15 million tonnes annually far exceeding its domestic consumption of about 10 million tonnes, allowing consistent exports to neighbours like Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, and beyond.

In recent seasons, including 2025/2026, South Africa has exported significant volumes to the region, with Zimbabwe often absorbing 35-41% of regional shipments (around 1.5 million tonnes cumulatively from May 2025 to January 2026, of which Zimbabwe took roughly 35%).

This dominance stems from a combination of advanced farming practices, favourable agro-ecological conditions in provinces like North West and Free State, and a suite of enabling policies that have sustained high productivity and export capacity.

Central to South Africa's maize success is its pioneering and permissive regulatory framework for genetically modified organisms (GMOs). South Africa became the first African country to enact GMO legislation in 1997 with the Genetically Modified Organisms Act 15, establishing a science-based approval process administered by the Department of Agriculture.

This has enabled widespread adoption. Approximately 85% of maize grown in the country is GM, primarily insect-resistant (Bt) and herbicide-tolerant varieties that boost yields, reduce pesticide use, and enhance drought tolerance. Unlike many SADC neighbours ( Zimbabwe and Zambia, which restrict cultivation but allow limited imports, or Angola, which prohibits GMOs outright), South Africa's framework supports commercial cultivation, consumption, and trade in GM maize.

This regulatory clarity has been key to maintaining surplus production, even amid challenges like droughts, and has positioned the country to export GM maize to receptive markets while segregating non-GM streams for premium non-GM export opportunities (though non-GM potential remains limited).

The absence of heavy production subsidies distinguishes South Africa's approach from many regional peers. Unlike input subsidy programs common in countries like Malawi, Zimbabwe or Zambia (Farmer Input Subsidy Programmes targeting smallholders), South Africa phased out direct maize production subsidies post-apartheid to promote market-driven efficiency.

Farmers operate in a deregulated environment with minimal government price supports, relying instead on private-sector inputs, futures markets (via the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's SAFEX platform for price discovery and hedging), and commercial credit. This market-oriented policy has fostered competitiveness, innovation, and cost management, though it leaves producers vulnerable to rising input costs ( fertilizer accounting for 30-35% of variable expenses, with seed prices). The lack of broad subsidies contrasts with Zimbabwe's input schemes but has contributed to South Africa's reliable export surpluses and stable domestic pricing.

Irrigation and infrastructure play supporting roles, though most maize (over 80%) remains rain-fed. Limited but strategic irrigation in provinces like the Northern Cape supports higher-value or drought-mitigating production, and policies encourage water-efficient practices amid water scarcity challenges. Biosecurity, plant health standards, and infrastructure investments (rural roads and storage) are prioritized to facilitate exports, with recent policy discussions in 2026 emphasizing biosecurity enhancements to open new markets and maintain regional dominance.

Trade policies further cement South Africa's hub status. Zero import duties on maize (with asynchronous GMO approvals posing occasional risks) and active participation in SADC free trade protocols enable seamless regional flows. White maize, preferred for human consumption in Southern Africa is a key export, often to Zimbabwe, stabilizing local prices and supporting food security in deficit countries.

In the broader SADC context, South Africa's policies create a stabilizing force. While other members grapple with production volatility, import bans, or GMO restrictions that hinder intra-regional trade, South Africa's consistent surpluses fill gaps, especially during droughts or poor harvests elsewhere.

Harmonization efforts (SADC's Harmonized Seed Regulatory System) aim to ease seed trade, though GMO regulatory divergences limit full integration. South Africa's model demonstrates how science-based regulation, market liberalisation, and minimal direct subsidies can sustain high-output agriculture and regional leadership.

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