• Zimbabwe's gold deliveries reached a record 46.73 tonnes in 2025, up 28.1% from 2024, with artisanal and small-scale miners accounting for nearly three-quarters of formal production
• Zimbabwe and the UAE recorded a US$501 million difference in bilateral gold trade values in 2022, raising questions about customs valuation, reporting periods and the reconciliation of export statistics
• The UAE accounted for approximately 97.6% of Zimbabwe's recorded exports under HS 710813 in 2024, making accurate trade reporting critical to monitoring the country's gold export earnings

Harare- Zimbabwe's gold industry achieved record formal deliveries in 2025, reaching 46.73 tonnes according to Fidelity Gold Refinery's final annual figures. The increase from 36.49 tonnes in 2024 strengthened the country's gold production record and reinforced the importance of the sector to foreign currency earnings. A separate examination of bilateral trade statistics raises questions about the differences between gold exports recorded by Zimbabwe and imports reported by the United Arab Emirates.

The discrepancies are particularly important because the UAE is a major destination for Zimbabwean gold. Differences in the value recorded by exporting and importing countries can arise from customs valuation, reporting periods, product classifications and other statistical practices. Their scale and persistence make reconciliation an important task for the institutions responsible for monitoring mineral exports.

In 2022, Zimbabwe reported approximately US$1.98 billion in gold exports to the UAE under the Harmonised System category HS 7108. The UAE recorded around US$2.48 billion in imports of gold from Zimbabwe during the same year. The difference amounted to approximately US$501 million, with the importing country's reported value exceeding Zimbabwe's export figure.

The gap was equivalent to roughly a quarter of the value Zimbabwe recorded as exports to that market. Its size warrants a closer examination of the underlying transactions and the methods used by the two countries to compile their trade statistics.

The available 2023 records show a different pattern. The UAE reported approximately US$1.865 billion in gold imports from Zimbabwe, while Zimbabwe's reported exports under HS 7108 to the entire world were around US$1.805 billion. The UAE's reported imports therefore exceeded Zimbabwe's worldwide export value for the category by approximately US$59 million.

This comparison requires care because the figures represent different reporting scopes. One concerns the UAE's imports attributed to Zimbabwe, while the other covers Zimbabwe's exports to all destinations. The discrepancy establishes a reason to examine the records more closely, with detailed customs information needed to determine its source.

In 2024, Zimbabwe reported approximately US$2.463 billion in semi-manufactured non-monetary gold exports to the UAE. The available UAE-side series for a broader gold category stood at around US$2.57 billion. The difference was approximately US$107 million.

The 2024 figures are not perfectly matched at the detailed product classification level. A direct comparison therefore provides a preliminary statistical reference and cannot establish the exact value of an unexplained bilateral discrepancy.

International merchandise trade statistics regularly contain differences between export and import declarations. Exporting countries generally value goods on a free-on-board basis, while importing countries commonly include freight and insurance costs. This difference can increase the reported value of imports relative to exports.

Timing is another factor. Gold dispatched near the end of a reporting period may be recorded as an export in one month and as an import in the following month. Differences can become more pronounced when shipments cross calendar years.

The treatment of product classifications also matters. Gold may be recorded according to its form, purity and processing stage. Differences between unwrought, semi-manufactured and other gold categories can affect the comparability of the resulting statistics.

Customs authorities may additionally use different valuation dates, exchange rates and documentation. Gold prices can change between shipment, customs clearance and final settlement. Differences in country-of-origin attribution can further complicate comparisons involving international refining and trading centres.

These explanations establish why a mirror trade discrepancy cannot independently be treated as evidence of smuggling or unlawful financial flows. Determining whether a gap remains unexplained requires the underlying records to be aligned by product, shipment period, quantity, valuation method and destination.

Zimbabwe's domestic gold delivery figures provide an additional foundation for that assessment. Fidelity data show that formal deliveries reached approximately 33.3 tonnes in 2018 before declining to 27.7 tonnes in 2019 and 19.2 tonnes in 2020.

Deliveries subsequently recovered to 29.6 tonnes in 2021 and 35.6 tonnes in 2022. They eased to 30.2 tonnes in 2023 before rising again to approximately 36.04 tonnes in 2024.

The monthly data series compiled for the original Equity Axis analysis totals 46.33 tonnes for 2025. Fidelity's subsequently finalised annual figure was 46.73 tonnes. The difference between the two figures arises from the distinction between the rounded monthly observations and the final annual reporting.

Using Fidelity's final annual totals, gold deliveries increased by approximately 28.1% between 2024 and 2025. This expansion raised the quantity of gold moving through formal purchasing and refining channels and increased the importance of accurate transaction records.

Artisanal and small-scale miners accounted for approximately 34.88 tonnes of the 2025 total, while large-scale producers contributed around 11.85 tonnes. Smaller producers therefore supplied close to three-quarters of formal deliveries.

The sector's production structure has implications for traceability. Gold enters the formal system through a large number of producers and transactions, requiring reliable documentation from initial purchase through refining, shipment and final sale.

The UAE's importance becomes especially clear in the more detailed 2024 trade figures. Zimbabwe reported approximately US$2.52 billion in worldwide exports under HS 710813, with around US$2.46 billion directed to the UAE.

This means that approximately 97.6% of the recorded exports in that specific category were destined for the UAE. Such concentration makes the quality of bilateral trade reporting particularly important because differences involving one destination can account for substantial values in Zimbabwe's external trade statistics.

The country's gold export monitoring system should therefore connect four sets of information. Fidelity's purchasing records establish the quantities entering formal channels. Refining and shipment records identify the gold subsequently prepared for export. Zimbabwean customs declarations record the declared value and destination. UAE import data provide a separate account of the transaction at the receiving end.

Reconciliation across these records would allow authorities to distinguish differences arising from freight, insurance, timing and product classification from amounts that remain unexplained after adjustment.

The exercise should begin with detailed monthly data for the largest gold categories, particularly those with substantial UAE exposure. Matching quantities alongside values would help determine whether differences arise primarily from prices, classifications or physical volumes.

Regular reconciliation would also improve the quality of economic statistics used by policymakers, investors and financial institutions. Gold exports influence assessments of foreign currency earnings, the merchandise trade balance and the wider external sector.

Greater confidence in the records would support more accurate analysis of Zimbabwe's export performance and the contribution of formal gold production to the economy.

The 2025 production record demonstrates the expanding scale of Zimbabwe's formal gold industry. Maintaining reliable documentation across the entire export chain is now an important part of protecting the credibility of that growth. A systematic reconciliation of Zimbabwean and UAE trade records would provide a stronger basis for identifying statistical differences, improving reporting practices and investigating any residual discrepancies that cannot be explained through normal customs procedures.

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