• Aims for full cooking oil self-sufficiency by 2027 under Vision 2030, targeting expanded cultivation of soybeans (77k ha), sunflower (160k ha), cotton (270k ha), and groundnuts (385k ha)
• This is to produce over 97 million litres locally against an annual demand of 180 million litres, reducing reliance on imports costing hundreds of millions in foreign exchange
• Persistent soybean supply deficit, drives heavy imports of raw beans and crude oil, despite spare processing capacity of 400k–450k tonnes/year and historical peaks of 140,793 tonnes in 2001

Harare- Zimbabwe is advancing toward edible oil self-sufficiency by 2027 under Vision 2030, which positions agriculture as a key driver for upper-middle-income status. While the country achieved milestones in commodities like tobacco, gold, and blueberries contributing to projected 6.6% economic growth in 2025, the trade balance remains fragile, marked by persistent deficits with only sporadic surplus months (including a record high in December).

Maize and soybean oil rank as the third and fourth most imported commodities, presenting major opportunities for import substitution through scaled local production, expanded irrigation infrastructure, and targeted policy reforms.

Maize shortages have led to GMO imports despite a domestic ban on cultivation, raising questions about regulated GMO adoption on a managed scale to address shortfalls sustainably.

For edible oils, the government has set a firm target of full cooking oil self-sufficiency by 2027, with emphasis on expanding cultivation of soybeans, sunflower, cottonseed, and groundnuts to eliminate dependence on imported crude soybean oil.

Soybeans play a central role in this strategy, as soybean oil is a primary component of edible oil production and consumption in Zimbabwe. National cooking oil demand stands at approximately 180 million litres annually, while local output from domestic seeds remains limited, forcing processors to rely on imported crude oil or raw beans for crushing. Installed processing capacity among major firms totals 400,000–450,000 tonnes per year, but full utilization would require around 700,000 tonnes of soybean equivalent, far exceeding current domestic supply.

The country faces a significant soybean supply deficit, with annual consumption demand estimated between 125,000 and 240,000 metric tonnes  driven by cooking oil and livestock feed industries, while local production typically covers only 30–50% of needs.

Production has historically fluctuated: peaking at 140,793 tonnes in 2001 (up from 135,414 tonnes in 2000), with a record low of 29,772 tonnes in 2018, and averaging approximately 36,705 tonnes since 2000.

Latest figures show stability around 75,000 tonnes in 2022 and 2023, dropping to 60,000 tonnes in 2024 and projected at 60,000 tonnes for 2025 due to drought impacts and variable conditions. This shortfall necessitates imports from Zambia, Malawi, and South Africa to meet industrial demand.

Recent trends indicate stabilisation in soybean oil imports at 30,000–40,000 tonnes annually (per USDA estimates), though values surged to US$267 million in 2025, contributing to a cumulative import burden of about US$1.37 billion from 2021–2025. A shift toward importing raw soybeans (US$95.86 million in 2025) for domestic crushing signals localisation gains, with around 90% of retail shelves now featuring locally refined oil.

For the 2025/2026 summer season, hectarage targets include approximately 77,000 hectares for soybeans, 160,000 hectares for sunflower, 270,000 hectares for cotton, and 385,000 hectares for groundnuts, the largest allocation reflecting groundnuts' dual role in food security and oil extraction.

These targets aim to generate over 97 million litres of cooking oil from local seeds against the 180 million litre requirement. Progress shows soybeans at 40,103 hectares (55% of target), sunflower at 39,428 hectares (25%), cotton at 122,493 hectares, and groundnuts at 221,118 hectares (57%), with stronger performance in provinces like Manicaland and Harare.

Full achievement could significantly narrow the import gap, though shortfalls, particularly in sunflower, suggest near-term local production may cover only about half of demand, leaving a shortfall of roughly 80–90 million litres requiring imports or accelerated efforts.

The edible oil sector's history dates to pre-independence Southern Rhodesia, where sanctions after the 1965 Unilateral Declaration of Independence drove import substitution, expanding processing of cottonseed, groundnuts, and sunflower. Cottonseed oil became a main domestic source, supplemented by groundnuts and limited sunflower, while soybeans were emerging but minimal.

Post-independence in 1980, smallholder access and state support initially increased output.  Soybean production rose from around 66,000 tonnes in 1980 to peaks of 130,000–141,000 tonnes in the late 1990s, with cotton bales often exceeding 400,000–500,000 annually and groundnuts stable near 100,000 tonnes.

Processors like Olivine Industries developed crushing and refining capacity for local brands, achieving partial self-reliance.

The 2000 fast-track land reform disrupted commercial farming, leading to declines: soybeans fell to 36,000–48,000 tonnes in the mid-2010s, and cotton to as low as 53,000 bales in 2015. Imports rose to bridge gaps, with soybean oil volumes peaking at 66,000 tonnes around 2012 before falling to 29,000 tonnes in 2018 due to forex constraints and localization efforts.

A decade ago, imports averaged about 37,000 tonnes of soybean oil down from earlier peaks of 55,000–66,000 tonnes, with local soybean output around 42,000 tonnes amid lower hectarage and yields.

By 2025, import volumes have moderated but values escalated amid global price spikes and demand growth. Improvements include more than doubled oilseed hectarage targeting over 423,000 hectares for 2025/2026, enhanced contract farming (sunflower programs exceeding 100,000 hectares), and raw bean imports for value addition. Yields remain 1–2 tonnes per hectare against potential 3+ tonnes, constrained by climate risks and volatility.

Government initiatives under Vision 2030 include Statutory Instrument 87 of 2025, mandating progressive local sourcing starting at 40% of raw material requirements from April 2026 and reaching 100% by 2028 to restrict non-essential imports and stimulate domestic oilseed supply.

Contract farming, input subsidies, irrigation expansion, and partnerships with processors like Olivine, Surface Wilmar, and Zimgold support farmers. Projected GDP growth of 5% in 2026 and favourable rainfall assumptions provide momentum. These reforms aim to promote agro-processing, create jobs, and save foreign exchange targeting a reduction of over US$100 million in the annual crude oil import bill.

Challenges persist, including policy inconsistency, forex constraints limiting inputs and irrigation, inadequate mechanization and seed quality, climate variability, land competition with food crops, power and logistical issues affecting processors, and insufficient smallholder support through extension and finance. GMO restrictions hinder productivity compared to global standards.

Olivine Industries exemplifies progress, investing in backward linkages for soybeans, sunflower, cottonseed, and groundnuts, alongside Surface Wilmar (producing Pure Drop and Golden Glow) and Zimgold (with Zimgold and Purula brands). These firms drive refining, margarine production, and branded products, poised for higher capacity utilisation as raw material volumes grow.

Full success by 2027 would deliver substantial foreign exchange savings, thousands of jobs in farming and processing, enhanced food security resilience, and strong alignment with Vision 2030. Amid strengths in other commodities like tobacco and gold, diversified agriculture through oilseeds, particularly soybeans as a core contributor to edible oil, can help stabilize the trade balance, where maize and soybean oil feature prominently in imports.

Critical steps include  accelerated irrigation, consistent implementation, and strengthened public-private R&D partnerships.

Rooted in post-independence recovery and Vision 2030 ambition, Zimbabwe's current momentum positions the country to transition from a chronic importer to a self-reliant producer. Execution in the 2026/2027 seasons will determine the pace of these transformative gains.

Equity Axis News