- Zimbabwe recorded its first-ever billion-dollar export month in October 2025, reaching US$1.02 billion, up 20.2% from September, driven by gold, tobacco and nickel
- Imports simultaneously cross the US$1 billion threshold for the first time at US$1.03 billion, erasing the export gains and resulting in a small trade deficit
- Surging maize, wheat and fuel imports highlight persistent food and energy vulnerabilities that offset the historic commodity export windfall
Harare- Zimbabwe has achieved a historic milestone in October 2025, with monthly exports surpassing the US$1 billion threshold for the first time, reaching US$1.02 billion. This represented a strong 20.2% month-on-month increase from US$851.1 million in September, according to data released by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (Zimstat).
However, the celebratory nature of this export breakthrough was significantly tempered by a simultaneous surge in imports, which also crossed the US$1 billion mark for the first time, totaling US$1.03 billion and marginally exceeding exports.
The resulting trade deficit, though small, reflects the challenge of converting export growth into meaningful balance-of-payments gains, particularly as rising food and energy imports offset gains in mineral and agricultural commodity earnings.
The primary driver behind the record export performance remained gold, which contributed US$463.8 million in October (45.2% of total exports), up from US$421.5 million in September and marking the second-highest monthly gold export value on record after August’s US$467.5 million.
Tobacco followed with US$154.1 million (14.8% share), reflecting a seasonal uptick ahead of the traditional November peak, while nickel mattes rose to US$127.5 million (12.5% share).
Together, these three commodities accounted for more than 72% of total export value, highlighting Zimbabwe’s continued heavy reliance on a narrow basket of primary products despite long-standing policy efforts to diversify the export base.
On the import side, the 17.8% month-on-month increase to US$1.03 billion was led by sharply higher spending on essential commodities that revealed persistent vulnerabilities in domestic food and energy security.
Petroleum oils rose to US$182.2 million, with diesel and petrol imports driving much of the growth. Maize imports more than doubled from US$24.4 million to US$56.9 million, signalling another poor domestic harvest and heavy dependence on regional grain supplies. Durum wheat imports also climbed to US$24.1 million, while imports of goods-transport vehicles reflected continued investment in logistics capacity.
Mineral fuels, machinery, cereals, and vehicles collectively represented nearly half of total import expenditure, illustrating structural import dependence even as export revenues reached historic levels.
Geographically, export flows remained highly concentrated, with the United Arab Emirates absorbing nearly half (49.8%) of total exports, largely gold followed by South Africa (20.6%) and China (12.7%). These three markets accounted for 83% of export earnings. Imports were similarly concentrated, with South Africa supplying 37.4%, China 15.9%, and petroleum sources Bahamas and Bahrain contributing 8.9% and 5.7% respectively.
Within regional trading blocs, patterns reinforced commodity-driven trade: nickel mattes and chromium ores dominated exports to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while tobacco overwhelmingly led shipments to both the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the European Union. On the import side, cereals, fuels, and machinery featured prominently from all major regional partners, with maize and wheat inflows reflecting Zimbabwe’s recurring food-security challenges.
Therefore, while October 2025 delivered a landmark billion-dollar export month propelled by robust gold, tobacco, and nickel sales, the achievement was effectively neutralized by a matching surge in imports, particularly of food grains and fuel. The episode highlights both the volatility of commodity-dependent trade and the persistent difficulty of translating mineral and agricultural windfalls into sustained external account improvement.
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