- Zimbabwe recently implemented an export ban on lithium ores.
- Consequently, two million tons of ore have been stockpiled.
- Citi predicts that it will reach US$40,000 per tonne while Macquarie predicts US$57,500 per tonne and UBS predicts US$54,750 per tonne.
Harare- Zimbabwe, a country with significant untapped lithium resources, recently implemented an export ban on lithium ores, with only a few players exempted from the ban. This move by the Zimbabwean government aims to encourage local processing of the metal. As a result of this ban, two million tons of ore have been stockpiled, according to Zimbabwe Miners Federation President Henrietta Rushwaya.
China's top lithium producers have agreed to set a floor price of 250,000 yuan ($36,380) per tonne of lithium carbonate in an effort to slow down the plunge in the price of the battery raw material. The price of lithium carbonate has been tumbling since November 2022 and has more than halved in value since its peak in November 2022. The current price is at its lowest in 15 months due to increasing global supply and a recent temporary pullback in Chinese demand.
Lithium is a key component in the production of batteries used in electric vehicles, smartphones, and other electronic devices. As the demand for these products continues to grow, so does the demand for lithium. However, the future of lithium prices is uncertain. Can we expect a return to historical peaks? Despite this temporary setback, broker predictions suggest that the lithium price will recover later in 2023 and into 2024. Citi predicts that it will reach US$40,000 per tonne while Macquarie predicts US$57,500 per tonne and UBS predicts US$54,750 per tonne.
In terms of Zimbabwe's production numbers for 2022, it is expected that with the implementation of the export ban and encouragement for local processing, there will be a significant increase in production. As for untapped resource figures and areas where mines are found, Zimbabwe has one of the largest known lithium deposits in Africa located in Bikita Minerals. Other areas where lithium deposits have been discovered include Kamativi Mine and Zulu Lithium Project.
In conclusion, while the future of lithium prices is uncertain, there are several factors that suggest that we may see a return to historical peaks. The growth of electric vehicle sales, government policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting electric vehicles, and the increasing use of renewable energy sources all point towards increased demand for lithium in the coming years. However, supply chain disruptions and technological advancements could also impact prices. Only time will tell what the future holds for this important battery metal.
Commodities Perspective Corner is a weekly publication focusing on general commodities from Agriculture, Energy to Metals. The column seeks to highlight global developments narrowing down their impact on the local economy and vice versa.
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