$24 million traded on interbank market so far, says RBZ
By Respect Gwenzi, Mar 11, 2019
HARARE- The Reserve Bank governor John Mangudya has revealed that $24 million has exchanged hands on the interbank market since its promulgation a fortnight ago.
The Bank has so far resisted releasing the critical information regards the volume of trades on the interbank market on a regular basis, information which remains a missing puzzle in facilitating a fairer assessment of trading activity on the market.
So far only closing rates, bid and ask prices are published daily by banks and the central bank which are of less consequences compared to the volumes. In auction based trading volumes traded play a critical role in showing the depth of both supply and demand.
Suppose one use the figures published by the RBZ’s boss above , it implies that on average the interbank market has crossed $2.4 million worth of forex trades per day since the introduction of the interbank.
Players participating in that respective market would go on to use such volumes and equate them to some solid demand measures such as the average imports per months discounted for government’s own demand.
Using 2018 trade data Zimbabwe demanded an average of $19.6 million in forex per day to satisfy imports demand. If an assumption is made that at least half of the demand was due to government, it leave out about $9.5 million in daily forex demand and when compared to the current trading levels of $2.4 million, leaves out a huge gap in actual demand.
On the other hand, volumes will also help to make an assesment of impact on price level. Suppose trades are conducted at a higher price level but with lower volumes, a conclusion can be drawn that there is no momentum to support the price surge.
Efforts to secure the critical piece of information have been in vain, and it is only 2 forums that responsible officials have said a word over the trades. In a Bloomberg interview in the US a couple of days ago, Minister of Finance Mthuli Ncube said about $7.5 million exchanged hands in the first week of trading grossly at variance with the figure which today was given by the RBZ Governor during a parliamentary portfolio commitee meeting in Harare today.
It is the persuasion of some of our Analysts that the move to withhold data, which the authorities have promised to release, is a tactical move to study trading patterns on the interbank market before letting market forces take control.
The analysts believe the RBZ would want to swiftly intervene or influence the market without scrutiny in these early trades thus tightly withholding information which can cause a serious shock to the market.
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