- BMI projects Zimbabwe's net electricity generation capacity to roughly double by 2035, with renewable-energy investment expected to drive much of the expansion
- Zimbabwe has approximately 2,962MW of installed generation capacity, against dependable capacity of only 1,200MW to 1,600MW, exposing the difference between plant investment and electricity availability
- Hydropower dependence, ageing thermal infrastructure and limited grid flexibility mean investment in storage, transmission and reliable backup generation will be critical to converting new capacity into industrial energy security
Harare- Zimbabwe's electricity generation capacity could roughly double by 2035 as renewable-energy investment accelerates, according to projections presented by BMI, although the country's persistent exposure to hydrological fluctuations and unreliable thermal generation could limit the benefits of the expansion for businesses and households.
The forecast, presented at a business and economic outlook briefing in October 2026, places Zimbabwe among the regional electricity markets expected to record substantial renewable-energy capacity growth over the next decade. However, the projected increase comes as Zimbabwe continues to operate a generation system whose existing installed capacity already exceeds peak demand, yet frequently fails to deliver sufficient dependable electricity.
The country's National Energy Compact places installed generation capacity at approximately 2,962 megawatts, comprising 1,050MW of large hydropower, 1,680MW of coal-fired capacity and 232MW of small hydro, solar and bagasse generation. Dependable capacity ranges between 1,200MW and 1,600MW against peak electricity demand of around 2,000MW.
At the lower end of the dependable capacity range, the country faces a theoretical supply shortfall of 800MW before electricity imports and demand-management measures. The deficit narrows to approximately 400MW when dependable output reaches the upper end of the range.
This means Zimbabwe's existing generation infrastructure can reliably provide only about 41% to 54% of its stated installed capacity under the conditions described in the National Energy Compact. The calculation encompasses different technologies and operating constraints, including hydrological restrictions at Kariba and technical limitations within the thermal fleet.
The gap has important implications for BMI's 2035 outlook. The contribution of additional capacity to energy security will depend on its actual generation output, availability during peak consumption periods and the country's ability to transmit the electricity to industrial and residential consumers.
Kariba remains Zimbabwe's largest hydrological exposure
Hydropower accounts for approximately 35% of Zimbabwe's installed electricity generation capacity, concentrated at the 1,050MW Kariba South Power Station. The facility remains a major source of relatively low-cost electricity, although its contribution is determined by water availability within the shared Kariba reservoir.
The station's dependence on Zambezi River inflows exposes Zimbabwe's electricity system to rainfall variability across the wider catchment, including areas outside the country's borders.
The drought conditions experienced during 2024 demonstrated the magnitude of that exposure, with declining water availability restricting generation at Kariba and increasing reliance on thermal production and regional electricity imports.
The restrictions occurred despite the existence of substantial installed hydropower capacity, illustrating how a power station can remain mechanically capable of generating electricity while its output is limited by environmental conditions.
For 2026, the Zambezi River Authority allocated 30 billion cubic metres of water for electricity generation at Kariba, divided equally between Zimbabwe and Zambia. Zimbabwe Power Company received an allocation of 15 billion cubic metres, compared with an allocation based on 14 billion cubic metres for 2025 following a revision during that year.
The improvement provided additional scope for hydropower generation, supported by a more favourable rainfall outlook. However, water allocations remain subject to hydrological conditions, while annual rainfall performance cannot guarantee sustained electricity availability over several years.
The implications extend beyond the electricity sector. Mining operations, manufacturing plants, irrigation systems and commercial infrastructure require predictable electricity availability to maintain production schedules and manage costs.
A reduction in hydropower output can force businesses to increase their use of imported electricity, diesel generators or privately financed backup systems. These alternatives introduce additional operating expenses and capital requirements.
For mineral producers, electricity disruptions can affect ore processing, ventilation, pumping and mineral beneficiation. Manufacturing companies encounter production interruptions, additional fuel consumption and higher unit costs when machinery operates below optimal utilisation rates.
These costs can undermine the competitiveness of local production, particularly where Zimbabwean firms compete against regional manufacturers benefiting from more dependable electricity systems.
Hwange's performance determines how much hydropower risk the country can absorb
Zimbabwe's thermal generation capacity provides the principal alternative to Kariba, with Hwange Power Station accounting for the largest share of installed coal-fired generation.
The commissioning of Hwange Units 7 and 8 added approximately 670MW of installed capacity, strengthening domestic electricity supply and reducing the system's reliance on older generating units.
The expansion has supported a shift in the generation mix towards thermal electricity, although the original Hwange units continue to face technical challenges associated with ageing equipment, maintenance requirements and forced outages.
According to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's fourth-quarter 2025 economic review, Hwange's older units and the newer Units 7 and 8 jointly generated approximately 1,690 gigawatt-hours during the quarter, representing 57.3% of national electricity output.
Kariba generated approximately 1,131 gigawatt-hours during the same period, compared with 517 gigawatt-hours in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
The recovery in Kariba generation improved the country's overall electricity supply position, while Hwange continued to provide a substantial share of production.
These figures illustrate the importance of maintaining reliable thermal capacity alongside hydropower. Greater thermal availability allows the power system to reduce pressure on Kariba during periods of declining reservoir levels, preserving water for subsequent generation.
The Government's National Energy Compact includes plans to rehabilitate Hwange Units 1 to 6, with the objective of restoring their available capacity from approximately 400MW to 800MW by the third quarter of 2027.
Achieving this target would improve the dependable contribution of existing infrastructure without requiring the construction of an entirely new power station.
However, the rehabilitated units would still require consistent maintenance, fuel availability and appropriate environmental management to sustain production.
The commercial value of these investments will ultimately depend on the megawatt-hours generated and the availability of electricity during periods of high demand.
Solar expansion introduces a new reliability calculation
Renewable energy is expected to account for a substantial proportion of Zimbabwe's capacity additions through 2035, with solar photovoltaic generation attracting growing interest from independent power producers, mining companies and industrial manufacturers.
Zimbabwe's solar resources provide favourable conditions for electricity production, while the modular nature of solar projects allows businesses to develop generation capacity in phases according to their financing and consumption requirements.
The Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority's register of independent power producers includes operational solar facilities supplying commercial businesses, mining operations and the electricity grid.
These include projects associated with CentraGrid, Guruve Solar Park, Schweppes Zimbabwe, Varun Beverages and several mining and manufacturing operations.
The expansion of industrial self-generation has become an important part of Zimbabwe's electricity investment landscape as companies seek greater control over energy costs and production continuity.
However, the growing share of solar generation introduces a different set of operating requirements.
Solar photovoltaic plants generate electricity according to available sunlight, with production concentrated during daylight hours and subject to weather conditions. Their contribution therefore differs from that of generators capable of maintaining output across a full day.
A 100MW solar installation cannot be treated as equivalent to 100MW of continuously available thermal or hydropower capacity.
The distinction is particularly important for Zimbabwe's mining sector, where several production processes require uninterrupted electricity supply. Concentrators, furnaces, ventilation systems and pumping infrastructure cannot rely exclusively on daytime generation.
Solar investment can substantially reduce the electricity purchased from the grid during daylight hours. Providing reliable overnight electricity requires supplementary generation, battery storage or access to dependable grid supply.
Battery systems introduce additional capital expenditure, although they can improve the usefulness of solar generation by shifting some electricity production into evening consumption periods.
At national level, increased solar penetration also requires stronger grid management, forecasting systems and sufficient flexibility to compensate for changing output during the day.
Zimbabwe's energy transition will therefore require investment in both generation assets and the infrastructure necessary to integrate them into the electricity system.
Industrial self-generation could change the economics of grid electricity
The movement towards privately financed electricity production has implications for Zimbabwe's electricity market beyond the immediate addition of generating capacity.
Large industrial consumers generally have stronger financial incentives to invest in their own power infrastructure because electricity interruptions can result in substantial production losses.
Mining companies with long-life assets are particularly well positioned to assess solar and other electricity investments against the cost of grid purchases, diesel generation and unplanned shutdowns.
For these businesses, the financial return from self-generation includes savings on electricity purchases and avoided production losses.
However, the economics vary considerably across industries. Large mines and established manufacturers may be able to finance generation assets through their balance sheets or dedicated funding arrangements, while smaller companies remain heavily dependent on electricity supplied by the national utility.
This could create an increasingly differentiated industrial energy market, with large companies securing more predictable electricity supplies and smaller producers remaining exposed to grid disruptions.
The wider financial implications extend to the Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company, which must maintain and expand electricity networks even as some large consumers increasingly generate part of their own requirements.
Electricity tariffs, network charges and the ability of private producers to sell surplus electricity into the grid will influence how the costs and benefits of distributed generation are shared.
A poorly coordinated expansion of private generation could also leave the public grid carrying significant fixed infrastructure costs across a changing customer base.
Effective integration of privately generated electricity could improve national supply availability by allowing surplus output to serve other consumers where appropriate commercial and transmission arrangements exist.
The development of a more flexible electricity market will consequently be important to extracting maximum value from the generation capacity projected by BMI.
Transmission investment becomes central to the 2035 outlook
Zimbabwe's National Energy Compact identifies ageing transmission and distribution infrastructure as another constraint on electricity supply.
The country occupies an important position within the Southern African Power Pool, connecting major electricity markets across the region. This provides opportunities for electricity trading, although the ability to import and transmit power depends on available network capacity and commercial arrangements.
The Government's energy programme includes plans to construct at least 1,607 kilometres of new transmission and distribution lines by 2030, alongside measures to reduce technical electricity losses.
The compact also sets out a programme to reduce technical losses from approximately 18%–20% to 14% by the fourth quarter of 2030.
Reducing network losses would improve the amount of electricity delivered to paying consumers from a given level of generation. It would also improve the economics of future generating projects by increasing the useful output that reaches the market.
Transmission investment is particularly important as Zimbabwe develops renewable-energy facilities in areas distant from major industrial consumption centres.
Generation projects require sufficient evacuation infrastructure to deliver electricity reliably to the grid. Without appropriate transmission capacity, additional installed generation can face constraints on dispatch, reducing realised output and weakening investment returns.
The financing requirements associated with transmission and distribution are consequently becoming central to Zimbabwe's broader energy investment programme.
The 2035 test will be dependable power relative to industrial demand
BMI's projected expansion in generation capacity coincides with rising electricity requirements from mining, mineral beneficiation, manufacturing and infrastructure development.
Zimbabwe's lithium-processing investments, expanding gold production and prospective steel-related industrial projects could increase electricity demand over the coming decade.
These investments require reliable power at commercially sustainable tariffs. Additional demand from mineral processing may also introduce a greater concentration of electricity consumption among large industrial users.
The scale of future requirements means that even a doubling of generation capacity cannot independently establish whether Zimbabwe will achieve electricity self-sufficiency.
A meaningful assessment requires projections for peak demand, annual electricity consumption, dependable generation capacity and the timing of major industrial investments.
The electricity mix will be equally important. Additional solar capacity could improve daytime supply, rehabilitated thermal plants could strengthen generation reliability, and dependable hydropower output could reduce the cost of electricity during favourable hydrological conditions.
Battery storage, demand management, regional electricity trading and transmission investment will determine how effectively these resources can operate together.
The sector's investment outlook therefore extends across generation, electricity storage, grid infrastructure and the commercial arrangements necessary to mobilise private capital.
For businesses, the most consequential measure of progress will be the availability and cost of electricity during production hours. Reliable electricity would improve machinery utilisation, reduce expenditure on backup power and create greater certainty around new capital projects.
Zimbabwe enters the projected expansion period with considerable generation infrastructure already in place and a growing pipeline of renewable-energy investment.
Its ability to translate the additional megawatts into sustained industrial growth will depend on whether dependable electricity output increases sufficiently to meet demand, including during drought periods and evening consumption peaks.
BMI's 2035 forecast provides a potential pathway for expanding the country's electricity infrastructure. The outcome will be determined by project delivery, plant availability, hydrological conditions and the extent to which generation investment is matched by improvements in transmission, storage and system flexibility.
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