• Zimbabwe has 2-3 months of fuel reserves, but prices are still rising due to global market disruptions and replacement cost pricing
• The country's fuel import bill was $1.86 billion in 2025, 18% higher than 2024, driven by a 31% increase in consumption to 2.1 billion litres
• Fuel prices are expected to remain high due to rising global crude prices, taxes, and levies, with ZERA forecasting a 19% increase in consumption to 2.5 billion litres in 2026

Harare- Minister of Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Zhemu Soda has said Zimbabwe holds between two and three months of fuel reserves and that the country's supply position remains secure despite ongoing global market disruptions.

He made the statement this week while responding to questions from Members of Parliament who had pressed the government to explain the country's vulnerability to international supply shocks , and to account for why fuel prices continue to rise.

Soda told Parliament that while existing reserves had been purchased at earlier, lower prices, "disruptions to supply routes will affect fuel prices" , an acknowledgement that Zimbabwe's landlocked, fully import-dependent fuel supply chain carries real exposure to the geopolitical volatility now shaking global energy markets.

The parliamentary exchange came against the backdrop of the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority's latest price announcement, which pushed petrol to $1.71 per litre, a 9.6% increase , and diesel to $1.77 per litre, a single-month surge of 16.4%. Both figures represent some of the steepest monthly adjustments in recent memory and were driven by Brent crude climbing above $78 a barrel following US-Iran military exchanges that rattled the Strait of Hormuz.

ZERA does not price fuel based on what was paid for the stock currently sitting in reserve. It prices based on what it would cost to replace that fuel today , the international market price of importing the next consignment, inclusive of current shipping rates, foreign exchange costs, taxes, and levies. This is known as replacement cost pricing.

The commercial logic is sound. If ZERA priced at the historical cost of what's already in the tank, importers and distributors would collect revenues below what it costs to finance the next shipment , and supply would eventually dry up. Replacement cost pricing keeps the import cycle solvent.

But it also means that every time Brent crude rises, the pump price in Zimbabwe rises with it, regardless of how much cheaper fuel is sitting in reserve. The buffer the Minister cited buys time against supply disruption. It buys nothing against price.

This is the answer to the question MPs were asking , and one that the parliamentary record suggests was not fully articulated in the chamber.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe confirmed that Zimbabwe's fuel import bill in 2025 reached $1.86 billion , 18% higher than the $1.58 billion spent in 2024. Critically, this increase was driven less by price than by volume.

The energy regulator ZERA confirmed that Zimbabwe consumed 2.1 billion litres of fuel in 2025, up sharply from 1.6 billion litres the previous year , a 31% surge in a single year. Diesel accounted for 1.5 billion litres of that total, reflecting its central role as the primary energy input for industry, logistics, agriculture, and the generator economy that substitutes for Zimbabwe's unreliable electricity grid.

ZERA's latest projections show no sign of that appetite slowing. The regulator expects national fuel consumption to reach 2.5 billion litres in 2026 , a further 19% increase. At current prices, that trajectory implies a fuel import bill that could approach or exceed $2.2 billion for the year.

Zimbabwe earned approximately $16.2 billion in total foreign currency receipts in 2025 according to the RBZ, meaning fuel alone already absorbs roughly one dollar in every nine the country earns externally. On the 2026 trajectory, that ratio worsens.

The consumption growth story has a positive dimension. ZERA attributes the surge to an economic rebound , rising industrial output, expanding mining operations, and increased transport volumes consistent with the country's estimated 6.6% GDP growth in 2025. More fuel burned generally means more economic activity. But the foreign currency cost of that activity is rising faster than the productive capacity it funds.

Zimbabwe's fuel arrives via road and rail from the ports of Beira in Mozambique and Durban in South Africa. The Feruka pipeline , the dormant Mutare-Harare petroleum conduit that could provide a cheaper, more reliable alternative  has not been rehabilitated despite years of discussion.

This means the country's entire import supply chain remains dependent on road freight that is itself diesel-intensive, adding cost and fragility to every litre that enters the country. In a significant regional disruption scenario, the two-to-three month buffer is the first and, at present, only meaningful defence.

·       Why the Levy Structure Matters

What Minister Soda's parliamentary response did not address , and what MPs may not have realised to ask , is the role of the government's own tax and levy structure in Zimbabwe's stubbornly high fuel prices. Taxes and levies alone account for more than $0.52 per litre on diesel and $0.54 on petrol, representing a 34% bite on the final pump price.

This includes the Strategic Reserve Levy, carbon tax, and VAT , all of which are fixed regardless of what is happening in global markets.

This levy structure means that when crude prices rise, Zimbabwe consumers absorb the full increase on top of an already heavy fixed cost base. And when crude prices fall , as they did sharply through much of 2025, with global oil touching four-year lows , the government's levy income is protected while the savings passed to consumers are partial at best. The asymmetry is structural, not accidental.

There is a precedent for intervention. In 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict drove a similar global price spike, the government reduced the Strategic Reserve Levy to zero, providing temporary pump price relief. That lever remains available. The Minister did not indicate it was being considered.

Taken together, the parliamentary exchange and the underlying data point toward three structural conversations Zimbabwe has been having, but not resolving, for years.

The first is levy reform. At $0.52–$0.54 per litre, Zimbabwe's fixed tax burden on fuel is among the heaviest in the SADC region , nearly double Botswana's rate on a proportional basis. Reducing it would directly and immediately lower the pump price. It would also reduce government revenue. That trade-off has not been made. Parliament is now, at least implicitly, creating pressure to revisit it.

The second is demand-side diversification. A significant share of Zimbabwe's diesel consumption is attributable to backup generators running because the national grid is unreliable. Every megawatt of additional generation capacity brought on stream reduces that demand.

Caledonia Mining's Blanket Mine alone has budgeted $11 million in additional capital to solve its own power problem , because the cost of running diesel generators has become material enough to justify it. Multiply that across thousands of businesses and households and the scale of avoidable diesel demand becomes clear.

The third is logistics infrastructure. The Feruka pipeline rehabilitation ,  estimated at $200 million , would permanently reduce per-litre transport costs by around $0.07 and reduce Zimbabwe's dependence on road freight. It has been proposed, analysed, and deferred repeatedly.

In a year when Zimbabwe is on course to spend $2.2 billion importing fuel by road, the calculus of inaction is becoming harder to defend.

Therefore, Minister Soda gave Parliament an accurate answer on the narrow question of supply security. Zimbabwe is not facing a fuel shortage. The buffer is real and it matters.

But the fuller picture ,  a $1.86 billion import bill, a 31% consumption surge, a 2.5 billion litre forecast for 2026, and a pricing model that structurally ensures consumers pay for tomorrow's fuel today , demands a more substantive parliamentary conversation than the one that happened this week.

Zimbabwe's fuel economy is growing faster than its capacity to finance or manage it. The reserves buy time. The structural vulnerabilities they are masking will not wait indefinitely.