• Dept's finding of 132.83% dumping margin backs Sibanye's July 2025 petition, protecting U.S. mines; trade reroutes with SA U.S. imports up 22% and Russian down 14%
• Headline profit up 19x to R5.4bn, adjusted EBITDA +127% to R15.1bn, net debt-to-EBITDA down to 0.89x with R21bn cash
• Mimosa (Sibanye's 50% JV) saw 5% production drop in H1 FY2026 from power issues and grades, causing R461m impairment; tariff-led price surge and Russian supply rerouting could lift export margins

Harare- Sibanye-Stillwater, the Johannesburg-based mining giant with a diverse portfolio spanning platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, and battery metals, has scored a preliminary victory in its campaign to impose tariffs on Russian palladium imports to the United States.

On February 10, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an affirmative preliminary determination, finding that Russian palladium is being dumped in the U.S. market at a staggering weighted-average margin of 132.83%. This development, announced by Sibanye on Friday, stems from the company's July 2025 petition, which argued that subsidised Russian imports were undermining the viability of domestic U.S. PGM production.

Sibanye's operations extend beyond South Africa and the U.S., with a significant presence in Zimbabwe through its 50% stake in the Mimosa Mining Company, a joint venture with Impala Platinum. Mimosa is the third Zimbabwe's largest PGM producers, focusing on platinum, palladium, and other metals with an annual output of around 240,000 ounces of PGMs on a 100% basis.

In H1 FY2026 (ended December 31, 2025), Mimosa reported a 5% decline in 6E concentrate production to approximately 120,000 ounces, attributed to persistent power outages, lower ore grades, and equipment challenges. These issues, compounded by Zimbabwe's energy crisis and a new 5% beneficiation tax on platinum introduced in 2025, led to a R461 million impairment on Mimosa in Sibanye's H1 2025 results.

Despite this, Mimosa contributed positively to Sibanye's overall PGM basket, benefiting from the 76% palladium price rally that averaged $1,850 per ounce in 2025.

While a final decision is not expected until June 2026 pending further investigations by the U.S. International Trade Commission, the ruling has already sparked shifts in global trade flows and bolstered palladium prices, which surged 76% in 2025 amid a broader precious metals rally.

The petition reflects Sibanye's strategic imperative to protect its U.S. assets, particularly the Stillwater and East Boulder mines in Montana, which are among North America's primary sources of palladium and platinum.

Russia, through state-backed giant Nornickel, dominates global palladium supply with a 40% share of mined output, producing around 2.5 million ounces annually.

Sibanye's call for tariffs aims to level the playing field, potentially shielding U.S. operations from low-cost imports that have flooded the market since Western sanctions on Russia intensified in 2022 following the Ukraine invasion. Those sanctions, however, spared palladium due to its critical role in automotive catalytic converters, allowing Russian exports to continue unabated until now.

This geopolitical manoeuvring comes at a pivotal time for Sibanye-Stillwater, which reported a mixed but improving financial performance in the first half of 2025 (H1 2025). The company posted a headline profit of R5.4 billion, a remarkable 19-fold increase from H1 2024, driven by operational efficiencies, higher PGM prices, and significant tax credits from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's Section 45X provisions. Adjusted EBITDA soared 127% to R15.1 billion, reflecting stronger contributions from its South African PGM operations and a rebound in recycling volumes.

Revenue dipped slightly by 1% to R54.8 billion, impacted by lower production volumes at some sites, but cost controls and the S45X credits totalling US$285 million helped offset headwinds.

Despite these gains, Sibanye recorded a basic loss of R3.6 billion (US$194 million), a substantial improvement from the R7.3 billion loss in H1 2024, though still weighed down by R9.7 billion (US$526 million) in impairments, primarily on its U.S. PGM and European lithium assets amid volatile commodity prices.

The impairments highlight ongoing challenges in the PGM sector, where low prices in early 2025 forced restructuring at the U.S. operations, including workforce reductions and deferred capital projects.

Cash flow from operations turned positive at R13.2 billion, up from R3.7 billion in H1 2024, enabling a 31% increase in cash reserves to R21 billion and reducing the net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio to a healthier 0.89x from 1.79x at year-end 2024.

Sibanye's debt-free U.S. PGM segment benefited particularly from the S45X credits, which subsidise advanced manufacturing and supported profitability despite a 20% drop in cost of sales.

The tariff petition, while primarily aimed at protecting U.S. imports, has indirect implications for Sibanye's Zimbabwean operations. Higher global palladium prices resulting from reduced Russian supply to the U.S. could boost revenues from Mimosa's exports, which are sold into international markets including China and Europe.

Trade data already shows rerouting. As Russian palladium shifts to China (up 42% to 22 tonnes in January-November 2025), South African and Zimbabwean producers like Mimosa could capture more U.S. and Western market share, potentially increasing Mimosa's margins.

However, Zimbabwe-specific risks such as unreliable power from ZESA, labour disputes, and currency controls under the ZiG system may temper gains. The beneficiation tax, designed to encourage local processing, adds costs, but if tariffs tighten global supply, Mimosa's position in the Great Dyke (with 1.5Moz 4E PGM reserves attributable to Sibanye as of December 2024) could yield long-term advantages through elevated prices.

The tariff petition is intrinsically linked to these financial pressures. Palladium, a key revenue driver for Sibanye (accounting for about 30% of its PGM basket), has been under siege from Russian imports, which trade data shows have rerouted dramatically since the petition's filing.

According to Trade Data Monitor, U.S. palladium imports from South Africa Sibanye's primary production hub rose 22% to 31 metric tonnes in January-November 2025, while Russian deliveries fell 14% to 23 tonnes. This shift indicates early market anticipation of tariffs, with South African producers like Sibanye gaining U.S. market share.

Conversely, Russian palladium has flooded China, with shipments up 42% to 22 tonnes over the same period, while China's imports from South Africa dropped 11% to 6 tonnes. These patterns reflect how trade barriers can reshape global supply chains, potentially benefiting Sibanye's dual SA-U.S. footprint while exposing vulnerabilities in non-U.S. markets, including indirect effects on Zimbabwe via price dynamics.

The broader palladium market provides crucial context for Sibanye's strategy. Prices for the metal, essential for neutralising emissions in gasoline vehicles, rallied 76% in 2025 to average around $1,850 per ounce, driven by supply fears, a precious metals bull market, and recovering automotive demand. Nornickel, Russia's palladium powerhouse, forecasted a 200,000-ounce global deficit in 2025 (including investment demand), with primary supply expected to fall 6% due to operational constraints in Russia and South Africa.

South Africa's PGM industry, plagued by power shortages, labour disputes, and high costs, saw production dip 3-5% in 2025, further tightening supply. Global mined output stands at about 6.5 million ounces annually, with recycling adding another 3 million, but demand from auto-catalysts (80% of use) remains robust despite the electric vehicle transition hybrids still require palladium-heavy converters.

Sibanye's U.S. operations, producing around 500,000 ounces of PGMs annually (mostly palladium), have been particularly hard-hit by low prices and Russian dumping. The Stillwater mine, acquired in 2017 for $2.2 billion, has faced closure threats amid losses, but the tariff could change that. A 132.83% duty would effectively price Russian palladium out of the U.S. market, potentially boosting Sibanye's revenues by 20-30% on U.S. sales if prices hold.

However, risks abound. A final ITC ruling could overturn the Commerce finding if no material injury to U.S. producers is proven, and retaliatory measures from Russia such as export bans, could spike global prices but disrupt supplies.

For Mimosa in Zimbabwe, such price spikes could offset local challenges like the beneficiation tax and power issues, enhancing export earnings and supporting Sibanye's strategy to invest in sustainable mining practices there, including community development and water management initiatives.

Looking ahead, Sibanye's outlook is cautiously optimistic. The company expects full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to exceed R25 billion if PGM prices sustain their rally, with U.S. operations turning cash-positive post-restructuring. Investments in battery metals, like the Keliber lithium project in Finland, position it for diversification, though impairments there reflect lithium's 80% price plunge in 2025.

The tariff saga also highlights broader geopolitical tensions in critical minerals. Russia's dominance in palladium (40% supply) mirrors dependencies in nickel and aluminum, where sanctions have failed to fully isolate Moscow.

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