- Zambia’s copper sector is riding a structural global boom driven by AI infrastructure, renewable energy, and EV demand, positioning the country to surpass 1 million tons of production in 2026
- Investor shifts, such as Prospect Resources’ pivot from Zimbabwe’s lithium sector to Zambia’s copper-gold belt, highlight the growing premium placed on regulatory clarity, stable fiscal regimes, and dual-metal projects that hedge commodity price volatility
- Zimbabwe holds significant copper-gold potential, but policy uncertainty and operational risks continue to limit output
Harare - Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, is on track to exceed 1 million tons of copper output in 2026, building on a record-breaking year in 2025 when production climbed by 8% to nearly 890,346 tons according to the Mines and Minerals Development Minister Paul Kabuswe.
Copper remains the backbone of Zambia’s economy, accounting for over 70% of export earnings and playing a crucial role in stabilizing the kwacha.
The surge in production comes amid a global copper boom. Prices, which rose from around US$7,200 per ton in mid-2023 to over US$9,000 per ton in early 2026, reflect soaring demand driven by the energy transition, renewable energy systems, electric vehicles (EVs), and AI-driven infrastructure, including data centres and cloud networks.
Goldman Sachs warn of a potential 8 million-ton global supply deficit by 2030, underscoring the strategic importance of stable, high-quality African copper supply.
Zambia’s record production is notable given domestic constraints. A severe drought in 2024 curtailed hydropower generation, which supplies roughly 85% of the country’s electricity.
Mining operations, highly energy-intensive, were nonetheless able to expand output, reflecting operational resilience and improved efficiency.
Looking forward, Zambia has set a long-term target of 3 million tons of copper by 2031, signalling its ambition to solidify its position as a key player in the global supply chain.
Key contributors to Zambia’s output include First Quantum Minerals Ltd., responsible for nearly half of national copper production, alongside Abu Dhabi’s International Resources Holding, Barrick Mining Corporation, and Vedanta Resources. Small-scale artisanal miners also play a meaningful role, highlighting the sector’s diversity.
The regional copper story is increasingly shaped by investor preferences and policy environments. Prospect Resources, an Australian-listed company once hailed as a lithium pioneer in Zimbabwe, has fully exited Zimbabwe’s lithium sector to deepen its footprint in Zambia’s copper belt.
Prospect’s Mumbezhi Project, particularly the Nyungu Central deposit, initially a copper asset, was found to host significant gold intersections, boosting economic potential and providing a hedge against price volatility.
Prospect’s exit from Zimbabwe illustrates the impact of policy risk on investment. Despite Arcadia Lithium near Harare being one of Africa’s most advanced lithium assets, pending state equity participation requirements, stricter licensing controls, and a crowded market dominated by Chinese investors made sustained investment complex.
In contrast, Zambia offers regulatory clarity, streamlined taxes, expedited licensing, and proximity to established smelters and logistics networks, giving companies operational certainty.
While Zambia leads the production surge, Zimbabwe is also rich in copper, often associated with gold, creating dual-metal opportunities.
Regions such as Hwange, Mashava, and northwestern Zimbabwe have seen renewed exploration interest, and artisanal miners continue to uncover copper-gold veins. Dual-metal deposits offer resilience against commodity price volatility, making them attractive for investment.
However, Zimbabwe’s policy uncertainty, currency volatility, and bureaucratic hurdles have hindered its ability to fully capitalize on these deposits.
Lessons from Zambia suggest that regulatory clarity, stable taxation, and streamlined licensing are critical to converting copper potential into sustained production and export revenue.
Copper is no longer just an industrial metal it has become central to the digital and green economy. Rising demand from AI infrastructure, renewable energy, and EV supply chains has tightened supply, while geopolitical tensions and production constraints elsewhere reinforce Africa’s strategic role.
Equity Axis News
