• Zimbabwe recorded its highest goods trade surplus of USD 240.2 million driven primarily by a 9.1% rise in exports to USD 1.142 billion and a 5.6% decline in imports to USD 901.5 million
• Semi-manufactured gold dominated with 47.3% share (USD 539.63 million in December, USD 4.61 billion for full-year 2025), far ahead of tobacco (17.7%) and nickel mattes (16.3%)
• Trade remained heavily concentrated: exports went mainly to UAE (49.9%), South Africa (21.6%) and China (17.3%)
• While imports originated predominantly from South Africa (38.8%), China (15.5%) and Bahrain (13.5%), exposing structural dependencies despite the strong balance

Harare- Zimbabwe recorded its highest goods trade surplus of USD 240.2 million in December 2025, a 163.8% increase from November, driven primarily by a 9.1% rise in exports to USD 1.142 billion and a 5.6% decline in imports to USD 901.5 million.

Semi-manufactured gold dominated exports with 47.3% share recording the highest monthly export in history of USD 539.63 million in December leading to a record high gold exports of USD 4.61 billion for full-year 2025, far ahead of tobacco (17.7%) and nickel mattes (16.3%), highlighting the critical role of the yellow metal in achieving the surplus.

Trade remained heavily concentrated: exports went mainly to UAE (49.9%), South Africa (21.6%) and China (17.3%), while imports originated predominantly from South Africa (38.8%), China (15.5%) and Bahrain (13.5%), exposing structural dependencies despite the strong balance.

Zimbabwe's economic landscape in December 2025 showcased a remarkable turnaround in its external trade dynamics, culminating in a goods trade surplus of USD 240.2 million. This figure represented a staggering 163.8% escalation from the November 2025 surplus of USD 91.1 million, reflecting a pivotal shift towards export-led growth amid global commodity volatility.

In economic terms, a trade surplus materializes when the monetary value of a nation's exports surpasses its imports over a specified period, fostering balance-of-payments stability and potentially bolstering foreign exchange reserves. Conversely, a deficit arises from import dominance, often signalling structural vulnerabilities in domestic production or consumption patterns. Zimbabwe's transition to this robust surplus position highlights the efficacy of its resource-based export strategy, particularly in leveraging mineral commodities to mitigate import pressures.

The surge in the trade balance was primarily driven by a 9.1% month-on-month expansion in exports, which climbed to USD 1.142 billion from USD 1.046 billion in November, equating to an absolute increment of USD 95.4 million. This export acceleration reflects heightened global demand for Zimbabwe's key commodities, amplified by favourable price dynamics in international markets.

On the import side, a contraction of 5.6% or USD 53.7 million brought December inflows to USD 901.5 million from November's USD 955.2 million, indicative of restrained domestic demand or targeted import substitution policies. Such import moderation could stem from macroeconomic stabilisation measures, including fiscal austerity and currency controls, which have historically plagued Zimbabwe's economy but appear to be yielding dividends in this period.

Analytically, this divergence in export-import trajectories not only widened the surplus but also enhanced Zimbabwe's terms of trade, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures and supporting sovereign creditworthiness.

Disaggregating the export composition reveals the dominant role of the "yellow metal", gold, in propelling this performance. Semi-manufactured gold accounted for 47.3% of total exports in December, with revenues soaring to USD 539.63 million, pushing the full-year 2025 tally to USD 4.61 billion. This gold-driven momentum shows Zimbabwe's comparative advantage in precious metals extraction, buoyed by artisanal and large-scale mining operations that have benefited from elevated spot prices amid geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary hedges globally.

Following gold, tobacco partly or wholly stemmed/stripped contributed 17.7% of exports, generating USD 211 million in December and accumulating USD 1.31 billion annually, reflecting seasonal harvesting peaks and resilient demand from Asian markets. Nickel mattes rounded out the top three at 16.3%, with December earnings of USD 185 million elevating the yearly total to USD 1.41 billion, a testament to the sector's recovery from supply chain disruptions.

Further down the ladder, other mineral substances yielded USD 412 million for the year, while ferrochrome capped the top five at USD 367 million, collectively illustrating Zimbabwe's heavy reliance on extractive industries. This export concentration, while advantageous in the short term, exposes the economy to commodity price cycles and environmental externalities, necessitating diversification strategies to mitigate Dutch disease effects.

On the import front, the basket remained skewed towards essential inputs and consumer goods, with mineral fuels, oils, and related products commanding 22.6% of the total, led by diesel at USD 108.76 million in December and an annual import value of USD 1.17 billion. This dependency highlights energy security challenges, exacerbated by domestic refining constraints and reliance on foreign suppliers.

Machinery and mechanical appliances followed at 13.2%, essential for industrial rehabilitation, while cereals dominated by maize at USD 443.49 million for the year comprised 6.9%, signalling persistent agricultural shortfalls amid climate variability. Vehicles at 5.7% further emphasized infrastructure needs.

Notably, unleaded petrol imports reached USD 520.1 million annually, with crude soybean oil and other soybeans at USD 267 million and USD 95.9 million, respectively, pointing to food processing vulnerabilities.

From a balance-of-payments perspective, this import structure perpetuates current account pressures unless offset by export windfalls, urging policy interventions like value-added agro-processing to enhance import elasticity.

Geographically, Zimbabwe's trade linkages exhibited concentrated patterns that amplify both opportunities and risks. Export destinations were heavily tilted towards the United Arab Emirates at 49.9%, channelling gold flows through Dubai's refining hubs, followed by South Africa at 21.6% and China at 17.3%. These three markets absorbed approximately 89% of the USD 1.142 billion export value, reflecting strategic bilateral ties but also vulnerability to diplomatic shifts or demand fluctuations in these economies.

Import sourcing mirrored regional dependencies, with South Africa leading at 38.8%, China at 15.5%, Bahrain at 13.5% possibly for petroleum products, and Mozambique at 4.8%, collectively comprising 73% of the USD 901.5 million. This hub-and-spoke model with South Africa as a pivotal intermediary reflects logistical efficiencies but raises concerns over trade imbalances and potential tariff escalations under regional agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Therefore, Zimbabwe's December 2025 trade surplus, spearheaded by gold's stellar performance, marks a high-water mark in its economic resilience, achieving the highest recorded balance amid a challenging global environment. This outcome not only fortifies fiscal buffers but also signals potential for sustained growth if complemented by structural reforms.

However, the overreliance on finite resources and concentrated trade partners warrants cautious optimism; policymakers must prioritize industrial deepening, export diversification, and import substitution to transform this surplus into long-term macroeconomic stability. As evidenced by the data, the interplay of commodity booms and prudent demand management has positioned Zimbabwe favourably, yet the path ahead demands vigilant navigation of external shocks.