• Zimbabwe's industrial revival, led by surging mining and manufacturing sectors, faces severe electricity shortages that threaten growth, with peak demand projected to hit 5,000 MW by 2030
• Coal offers a reliable, dispatchable baseload solution with reserves of 553 million proven short tons, estimates up to 30 billion tons
• Despite solar's lower headline LCOE, its intermittency and high storage costs make it less suitable for 24/7 heavy industrial needs compared to coal
• Despite recent improvements in the electricity supply, companies in the manufacturing and mining sectors continue reporting frequent power outages that hinder productivity

Harare- Zimbabwe's economy is experiencing resilient growth, with its rebased gross domestic product (GDP) reaching $44.4 billion in 2025. This revision highlights stronger economic momentum than earlier estimates, fueled by a 6.6% growth rate in 2025 that exceeded initial forecasts of 6%, alongside a projected 5% expansion in 2026.

Sectors like mining, manufacturing, and agriculture are driving this progress, supported by more than 600 investment licenses issued by the Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency (ZIDA) last year, with mining at the forefront. 

The surge in mining, an energy-intensive extractive industry, is placing immense strain on the national power grid, with peak demand expected to climb to 5,000 megawatts (MW) by 2030. Major companies are investing heavily in expansion: Zimplats is increasing output, Caledonia Mining is advancing the Bilboes project to become Zimbabwe's largest gold mine while exploring sites like Motapa and Maligreen, and Padenga Holdings is pursuing underground developments at Eureka Mine in Guruve and Pickstone-Peerless in Chegutu, incorporating improvements such as better gold recovery and hybrid solar systems.

Kuvimba Mining House, the country's leading mining firm, is transitioning from emeralds at Sandawana Mines to lithium production, including a large concentrator plant, while growing gold operations at Freda Rebecca, Jena, and Shamva. In manufacturing, companies like Delta Corporation and Innscor Africa among others are modernizing production lines.

These efforts point to an emerging industrial revival, yet they depend critically on a stable electricity supply to prevent expensive interruptions in this high-energy-demand environment. 

However, Zimbabwe grapples with severe electricity shortages that threaten to erode these advances. National consumption has surpassed 2,000 MW, with peaks frequently exceeding this level, prompting the government to mandate that energy-intensive ferrochrome miners generate their own power by the end of the year.

Generation statistics reveal a challenging reality: peak output reached around 1,600 MW in December 2025 before falling below 1,200 MW in early 2026 due to seasonal and infrastructure issues. The current energy mix depends on hydroelectric power (HEP) from Kariba, thermal power from Hwange, and solar contributions from independent producers. 

The severe 2024-25 drought, the worst in four decades, devastated Kariba's operations, with water levels dropping below 3% and causing shutdowns and rationing that also affected neighboring Zambia. Initiatives like the Batoka Gorge Hydropower Project and floating solar on Lake Kariba are in progress, but climate change continues to undermine the reliability of HEP, rendering it unsuitable as a consistent baseload source.

In contrast, coal-fired thermal power provides a reliable alternative. Zimbabwe runs seven units at Hwange, with a ninth underway and a 400 MW addition planned through rehabilitation in collaboration with India's Jindal Steel. This development not only increases capacity but also reduces emissions through methods like coal washing.

Historically, coal formed the backbone of industrialization in advanced economies such as the United States and Europe before their shift toward renewables. China and India continue to rely heavily on coal for stability during their renewable transitions.

China, despite record additions in wind and solar surpassing coal capacity in installed terms and seeing renewables meet demand growth still depends on coal as its primary energy source, with coal generation declining only modestly in 2025 amid ongoing new plant approvals and high overall consumption.

While China harvests vast amounts of wind and solar energy, grid constraints lead to curtailment (wasted excess renewable output) rather than full utilization or widespread export of that surplus electricity; instead, coal bridges gaps to ensure reliable supply, much like oil and other fossils remain integral.

 Globally, coal's continued relevance reflect its practical role. Prices hovered around $108-110 per ton in early 2026, close to one-month highs, as China prepared to bring online numerous new coal-fired units.

Events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict prompted Europe, including Germany, to restart thermal plants, and the U.S. relaxed some clean energy rules. These developments expose the double standards in urging African countries to bypass coal, which could perpetuate underdevelopment. 

Zimbabwe stands to benefit from adopting a pragmatic, China-inspired approach: leveraging coal for dependable baseload power while gradually incorporating renewables. The country possesses abundant coal reserves, with proven amounts at 553 million short tons and estimates reaching up to 30 billion tons, sufficient for generations.

Production has risen steadily from 3.11 million metric tonnes in 2013 to about 6.3 million tonnes in 2025, growing at a 6% compound annual rate, and the mining sector anticipates a further 6% increase in mineral output in 2026, with coal playing a pivotal role at near-full capacity. 

Coal mining also creates significantly more direct and indirect jobs than solar alternatives, crucial in a nation facing high unemployment. These jobs span extraction, processing, and transportation, often in rural areas, and outperform solar in employment per dollar invested compared to programs like biogas or hydro.

With mining and manufacturing accounting for over 50% of electricity use (22.3% and 31.8%, respectively), fulfilling 2,000 MW peaks through coal would require 6-7 million tonnes annually an achievable target based on current trends. This strategy utilizes existing infrastructure, reduces vulnerability to global fuel price swings, and promotes self-sufficiency over import-reliant options. 

Cost comparisons further support coal's essential role. The Batoka Gorge HEP project, costing $4.2 billion for 2.4 GW (1.2 GW allocated to Zimbabwe), works out to $1.75 million per MW. Similar investments in coal, at around $2.5 million per MW as seen at Hwange, deliver comparable capacity with far greater resistance to drought.

While solar photovoltaic (PV) boasts a low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at $0.043/kWh compared to coal's $0.06-0.12/kWh, its intermittency, tied to sunlight and yielding 20-30% capacity factors necessitates costly lithium batteries for round-the-clock supply. Battery prices have fallen dramatically to $192/kWh, but storage adds roughly $0.033/kWh, pushing effective LCOE to $0.076/kWh or higher in African contexts, often equaling or surpassing coal. For utility-scale, firm power needed in mining, storage can inflate costs by 20-50%, making it uneconomical without heavy subsidies, particularly amid variable weather that affects output.

HEP's LCOE of $0.057/kWh is attractive but hampered by high initial costs and vulnerability to outages. Coal delivers dispatchable baseload without storage expenses or weather dependencies, proving vital for industries where power cuts cause severe economic damage. Mining demand is projected to rise 40% from 2026 to 2030, reinforcing coal's advantages.

Zimbabwe should therefore prioritize coal as a transitional foundation, emulating China's model of sustained coal reliance alongside rapid renewable growth. Expanding Hwange and tapping domestic reserves can prevent blackouts, fuel the industrial boom, and allow solar to complement operations, such as in hybrid mining setups for daytime peaks or off-grid needs rather than replace coal entirely, given renewables' limitations in reliability and cost for continuous heavy industry.

This balanced strategy mitigates exposure to price volatility through local abundance, enhances resilience in a climate-unstable world, generates employment, and paves the way for sustainable prosperity. Emphasizing coal's proven availability and 24/7 reliability, Zimbabwe can secure energy stability as the cornerstone of its ambitious economic goals, avoiding excessive dependence on less dependable alternatives.

Equity Axis News