Zimbabwe’s true 2025 gold production has already exceeded 67 tonnes when estimated leakages of ~40% are added to the official 37-tonne YTD deliveries

 November–December projected to push formal output alone to or past 45 tonnes

Reaching 100-tonnes requires only modest, low-risk policy adjustments: raise ASM royalties to 3–4%, eliminate the 30% export retention for large-scale miners, among others

Harare- Zimbabwe's gold sector continues its meteoric ascent, a testament to resilient operators navigating macroeconomic headwinds and structural reforms amid a global bull market for the yellow metal. In October 2025, barely 2 months to cap the year, year-to-date deliveries to Fidelity Printers and Refiners stood at an 37 tonnes, a historic high, reflecting a robust first 10 months of the year where monthly averages clocked in at 3.7 tonnes, eclipsing historical benchmarks and reflecting the sector's maturation.

Zimbabwe's gold sector is already a powerhouse in the making, with official deliveries through October 2025 reaching a record 37 tonnes and projections adding another 7.7–9.0 tonnes by year-end to eclipse the 40-tonne target, yet when factoring in the government's own estimates of widespread leakages from smuggling, which siphon off an estimated 40% of potential output or roughly 22–24 tonnes annually based on historical patterns, the true national production surges past 67 tonnes this year alone, reflecting the untapped scale of the resource.

Achieving the ambitious 100-tonne milestone, generating $4–8 billion in annual revenues, demands just a little bit of policy twisting: modest hikes in ASM royalties to 3–4% to level the fiscal field without stifling small-scale momentum, scrapping the punitive 30% export retention to halt large-scale diversions and unlock $300 million in reinvestments, and bolstering anti-smuggling measures like Ghana's informant bounties or Tanzania's blockchain tracking to reclaim 10–15 tonnes yearly at a fraction of the cost. With reserves exceeding 1,000 tonnes, stable power pacts delivering 400 MW to miners, and global prices hovering above $4,100 per ounce, these targeted reforms, requiring perhaps $1 billion in capex but offset by PGM and tobacco windfalls, could catapult formal output by 20–30% through ASM formalisation and large-scale revival, transforming leakages into legitimate gains and positioning Zimbabwe not just as one of  Africa's largest producer, but a sovereign gold superpower rivalling Ghana and South Africa.

For context, the first 10 months of prior years yielded far slimmer averages: 3 tonnes in 2018, dipping to 2.3 tonnes in 2019 amid currency turmoil, a nadir of 1.6 tonnes in 2020 under COVID-19 lockdowns, rebounding to 2.5 tonnes in 2021, stabilizing at 3 tonnes in 2022, easing slightly to 2.6 tonnes in 2023 due to power deficits, and climbing to 2.83 tonnes in 2024 as reforms took hold.

This 2025 surge, 30% above the 2024 average, stems from a confluence of factors including stabilised foreign exchange access, enhanced small-scale miner incentives, and record gold prices breaching $4,100 per ounce, a 57% year-to-date gain that has supercharged profitability.

The dominance of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in gold production is both a strength and a structural weakness. With over 50,000 small-scale operators now accounting for roughly 65% of national output, these miners deliver the bulk of the volume, yet most still use rudimentary, labour-intensive methods that yield only 1–2 grams per miner per day. This informal sector also brings serious environmental and social costs, including widespread mercury contamination, river siltation, and market distortions caused by side-marketing.

From a fiscal perspective, the current policy framework is heavily skewed and economically counterproductive. Artisanal and small-scale miners pay a royalty of just 1% on their deliveries and face no export surrender requirements, no corporate tax, no other levies, and no additional mandates to various mining authorities. In contrast, large-scale miners, who contribute the remaining 35% of production, are subject to a 10% royalty rate, triggered by the recent government decision to hike royalties whenever international gold prices exceed US$2,500 per ounce, a threshold long surpassed with bullion consistently trading above US$4,000 per ounce.

This 10% royalty is levied in addition to corporate tax, the AIDS levy, and other statutory obligations, pushing the effective fiscal burden well beyond 15–18% of gross revenue, on top of the 30% export surrender portion that is paid out in the volatile local ZiG currency rather than US dollars. Large-scale operations also provide formal employment, clinics, schools, and genuine environmental management and corporate social responsibility programmes.

In simple terms, the 65% of gold coming from ASM generates only 1–2% of total royalty revenue, while the 35% from the formal sector shoulders nearly all the fiscal burden. This creates a perverse situation where the “prodigal son” is rewarded and the responsible, compliant producer is penalised. The government is leaving substantial revenue on the table by maintaining the 1% royalty rate for small-scale miners, a rate that could be raised gradually and transparently (for example to 3–4%) without disrupting formal delivery channels or driving miners underground.

Compounding the issue, the punitive 30% export retention threshold has pushed some large-scale miners into creative avoidance strategies. Credible reports show that certain primary producers have been diverting 10–15% of their output to affiliated or sympathetic small-scale entities, which qualify for 100% USD payouts through Fidelity. In effect, this informal rerouting allows large-scale miners to bypass the surrender requirement entirely, further eroding the intended policy outcome and reinforcing the very informality the system claims to want to reduce.

This workaround, while boosting short-term liquidity, erodes fiscal revenues and highlights the urgency of reform. The government's policy of remunerating ASM in full USD has indeed incentivized production, with deliveries from this segment up 25% year-on-year, yet it pales against smuggling premiums as illicit buyers in South Africa offer 10-20% above spot prices, siphoning an estimated 40% of potential output and costing $2.24 billion annually.

Formal channels, bolstered by Fidelity's improved payouts, now aligning within 2% of London Bullion Market Association rates with 48-hour settlements, have reclaimed 15% of diverted gold since September, but bridging the gap to smuggling allure demands bolder incentives, such as tiered bonuses for high-volume compliant deliveries.

Looking ahead, realistic projections for November and December 2025 point to a powerful year-end surge that should drive total annual gold deliveries to between 44.3 and 45.7 tonnes, well clear of the government’s 40-tonne target and marking one of the strongest years on record.

Through October 2025, the country has already recorded 37 tonnes, a figure built on recent monthly performances of 3.8–3.9 tonnes, giving a clear run-rate of approximately 3.7 tonnes entering the final two months.

November has historically been a solid but weather-sensitive month. From 2018 to 2024, recorded deliveries were: 1.4 t (2018), 1.8 t (2019), 1.5 t (2020), 3.3 t (2021), 3.7 t (2022), 1.5 t (2023 — heavy rains), 3.8 t (2024), and now tracking toward November 2025.

Unlike the flood-disrupted Novembers of 2022–2023 that saw dips of 10–15% in alluvial and open-pit mining (which make up 60% of ASM output), November 2025 has remained largely dry, with only light late-month rains and no widespread flooding reported. Combined with gold prices holding above $4,100/oz (up over 4% in the past month), improved Fidelity liquidity, and a confirmed 20% increase in small-scale claims processing, deliveries this month are on course for 3.7–4.2 tonnes.

The conservative end of the range (3.3–3.5 t) aligns with the historical median, while the realistic midpoint of 3.8–3.9 t reflects the same favourable conditions that produced 3.7 t and 3.8 t in the drier Novembers of 2022 and 2024.

December has traditionally been the peak month, driven by year-end bonuses and the festive-season rush to convert gold into cash. Historical deliveries according to Fidelity from 2018 through 2024 were: 1.6 t (2018), 2.7 t (2019), 1.6 t (2020), 4.3 t (2021), 2.2 t (2022), 2.4 t (2023), 4.8 t (2023 peak), and 3.2 t (2024 — impacted by heavy rains). With no repetition of last year’s excessive rainfall, prices expected to push toward $4,200 by mid-December on continued geopolitical tensions, and the usual 10–12% seasonal uplift intact, December 2025 is well positioned to deliver 4.0–4.8 tonnes.

A conservative forecast of 3.5–3.7 t remains above the disrupted 2024 figure, a realistic outcome of 4.0–4.3 t matches the stronger recent trend, and an optimistic 4.6–4.8 t would equal or slightly exceed the 2023 record.

Combining the two months, November and December 2025 should contribute 7.7–9.0 tonnes in total, with the most likely range centred on 7.8–8.2 tonnes. Adding this to the 37 tonnes already delivered through October produces a full-year total of 44.7–45.7 tonnes in the base case, 43.8–44.0 tonnes on a cautious view, and up to 46 tonnes if both high prices and the traditional December rush fully materialise. These projections are firmly grounded in the actual delivery history from 2018 onward, adjusted only for this year’s markedly better weather and significantly stronger gold price environment.

This conservative estimate also aligns with Reuters' November forecast of surpassing 2024's 36.48 tonnes, positioning Zimbabwe to eclipse Tanzania regionally and claim eighth in Africa, with true production (factoring 40% smuggling) nearing 65 tonnes.

Vaulting towards 100 tonnes

To vault toward the 100-tonne milestone by 2030, Zimbabwe must draw lessons from African gold giants tackling ASM efficiency, smuggling, and incentives, adapting their playbooks to local contexts of porous borders and resource abundance. Ghana, Africa's second-largest producer at 130 tonnes annually, exemplifies centralised formalisation through its 2025 Gold Board, which licenses over 20,000 ASM operators via cooperatives, providing mercury-free concentrators and 5% spot-price premiums, boosting yields 35% and formal output 25% in two years, despite initial $20 million setup costs. Smuggling, once claiming 30% of production, was slashed 40% via a national task force launched in July 2025, offering 10% bounties on seized gold to informants and disrupting UAE-bound routes,  recovering $500 million in taxes, a model Zimbabwe could replicate by empowering community watch programs along the Limpopo border, potentially reclaiming 10 tonnes yearly with minimal $10 million investment.

In Tanzania, the 2024 Mining Act amendments reserved 20% of concessions for ASM, coupled with solar-powered processing hubs in Geita, elevating small-scale contributions to 40% of national output (up from 25%) while curbing leakages through blockchain-tracked exports reducing smuggling by 20% despite early tech glitches. Applicability to Zimbabwe lies in its Great Dyke parallels: allocating 15% of underutilized large-scale claims to ASM clusters could formalize 10,000 miners, adding 5-7 tonnes via efficiency gains, offset by short-term revenue dips bridged by PGM windfalls.

South Africa, though LSM-dominant, has pivoted toward ASM integration via the 2023 Minerals Council initiative, subsidizing 50% of equipment for 5,000 informal diggers in the Witwatersrand Basin, yielding a 28% productivity spike and 15% smuggling drop through integrated value chains that refine locally. This contrasts Zimbabwe's fragmented approach but offers a blueprint for joint ventures: partnering ASM with majors like Caledonia could channel $50 million in tech transfers, formalizing operations and slashing mercury use by 30%, with long-run environmental benefits outweighing $15 million upfront subsidies.

Mali, producing 70 tonnes amid jihadist threats, incentivizes ASM through the 2025 EITI-compliant fund, disbursing $30 million in low-interest loans for gravity tables and training, which formalized 12,000 miners and boosted output 22% while combating smuggling via drone-monitored borders a tactic Zimbabwe could adopt for its 2,000-km frontier, enhancing patrols 25% at $8 million cost to recover $300 million annually. Burkina Faso, at 60 tonnes, mirrors this with its 2024 Artisanal Gold Council-backed program, equipping 8,000 operators with solar pumps and banning foreign buyers, curbing 35% of leakages; in Zimbabwe's context, restricting cross-border traders while offering 100% USD-plus-5% for Fidelity loyalists could mirror this, incentivizing the 70% ASM share without fiscal strain, as gains compound to $1 billion by 2028.

Venturing to first-world exemplars, Peru, though emerging provides a gold-standard (pun intended) for ASM sustainability, with its 2023 Enhanced Formalization Program under USAID channelling $17 million to Amazon cooperatives for mercury-free tech, formalizing 10,000 miners and hiking yields 50% while restoring 5,000 hectares of degraded land; smuggling fell 40% via export certification mandates. Zimbabwe, with similar alluvial hotspots in Manicaland, could launch a $40 million Green Gold Fund for gravity separation kits, applicable to 20% riverine operations, yielding 8-10 tonnes extra by 2027 despite $5 million annual training outlays the long-run ecological dividend, including 25% less contamination, justifying the push.

Canada, a tier-one jurisdiction, fosters ASM-like junior explorers through the 2025 Critical Minerals Incentive, offering 30% tax credits for sustainable tech in Yukon and Nunavut, where small-scale gold ops contribute 10% of 200-tonne output; this has formalized remote claims 20%, a model for Zimbabwe's incentives overhaul extending duty-free imports to ASM gear could unlock 15% efficiency, with fiscal gaps plugged by tobacco recoveries.

These global measures Ghana's task forces, Tanzania's reservations, Peru's green tech, highlight potentials like 20-30% yield boosts through formalisation, tempered by setbacks such as enforcement lags (Mali's 12-month rollout delays) or initial FDI dips (Tanzania's 8% in 2024), yet all affirm long-run triumphs: stabilized revenues, inclusive growth, and sustainability.

For smuggling, African peers emphasize tech (drones, blockchain) and incentives (bounties, premiums), directly applicable to Zimbabwe's $2 billion bleed integrating a $15 million informant network could halve leakages, funding the 100-tonne pivot. On large-scale revival, scrapping the 30% retention, emulating Ghana's full USD for majors, would stem the small-scale laundering ploy, unlocking $300 million in reinvestments for machinery, as seen in Australia's rebates driving 15% capex hikes. Caledonia's Blanket, up 3% to 58,000 ounces in nine months, eyes over 7 tonnes post-Bilboes; Kuvimba's 3.6 tonnes could double with $40 million; Padenga's 2.7-tonne run-rate targets 5 tonnes; RioZim's reboot adds 2 collectively 24 tonnes by 2028, synergizing with ASM's over 70 tonnes potential.

Power pacts remain pivotal: ZESA's 2025 mining cluster deals guarantee 400 MW, slashing Zimplats' 40% blackout costs, while solar subsidies (50% for 10 MW installs) echo Burkina Faso's pumps, cutting downtime 25%. Duty waivers on $200 million in gear, per Peru's model, would deflate expenses 15%, with tobacco/PGM buffers covering gaps. The Mine-to-Market System's 15% smuggling dent proves scalable, akin to Tanzania's blockchain. With 1,000+ tonnes in reserves, these levers, global-inspired yet Zim-tailored forge a 100-tonne economy: 20% from ASM uplift, 30% large-scale, 50% leakage recapture.

By 2030, $8 billion inflows could redefine sovereignty, outpacing peers and healing scars from 2020's 20-tonne low or 2008's 3 tonne historic low . This isn't speculation, it's evidenced momentum, 37 tonnes YTD, $4,100 gold prices, reform ripples propelling Zimbabwe from spree to supremacy.

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